Nate Silver’s latest FLIPR model for the November 2026 midterms has Democrats at roughly 75 percent to take the Senate and 93 percent to take the House. Those numbers treat the election as a standard second-year reaction against the party holding the White House. I do not see it that way. Silver has been wrong before when the underlying conditions changed. The conditions have changed again. Trump did not create the political order we are living in. A large group of Americans who rejected the prior direction created the opening that Trump filled. That group is still here, and the administrative class clustered around Tysons Corner does not appear to understand why.
The Model Assumes the Old Midterm Pattern Still Holds
Silver’s framework, like most quantitative election models, leans on historical patterns. The president’s party tends to lose seats in the midterms. Voters register dissatisfaction with the status quo. Generic-ballot movement and polling in a handful of competitive states (Michigan, Ohio, Texas, and others) get translated into chamber-control probabilities. When the model shows Democrats leading by a few points in places Trump won comfortably in 2024, the simulation produces a blue wave.
I have watched enough of these cycles to know the pattern is not iron law. It assumes a normal presidency, normal opposition, and voters who treat the midterms as a routine check. Trump was not a normal candidate, and the coalition that put him in office was not reacting to ordinary policy drift. People watched the border, inflation, cultural institutions, and the administrative expansion and decided they wanted a different representative. Models that treat that choice as a temporary fever that cools after two years are modeling the wrong thing. They are modeling the expectation inside the permanent government that the fever will pass if they simply wait.
Watching the Permanent Government at the Tysons Corner Walmart
My wife and I have been to the Walmart in Tysons Corner enough times that we have a preferred parking level in the garage. The store sits inside a dense cluster of high-rises roughly 15–16 miles west of downtown Washington, near Langley and the concentration of defense contractors and intelligence-community support firms that define Fairfax County. It is not the freestanding big-box with the wide parking lot that most people picture when they hear “Walmart.” It is compressed vertically, stacked into the same footprint as the surrounding office and residential towers. The people shopping there are not primarily the ones who drive in from the farther suburbs for bulk groceries. A large share live and work inside the federal-contractor economy that expanded after 9/11 and never really contracted.
I have written a chapter about this place in The Politics of Heaven. The observation is not complicated. You watch people move through the freezer section for chicken nuggets and the wine aisle with the same expression I have seen in other high-density administrative centers. They are performing the motions of ordinary life while remaining largely insulated from the consequences that ordinary voters experience. Pensions are secure. Housing is expensive but stable for those inside the system. The work is process-oriented rather than output-oriented. When you talk to them, the default expectation is that presidents come and go, but the block of offices, contracts, and clearances remains. They will wait. They have waited before.
That expectation is visible in the way the midterm forecasts are discussed inside the same circle. Trump’s approval, gas prices, or a few state polls are treated as sufficient to restore the prior equilibrium. The deeper reason voters chose him—the desire for someone who would actually represent the people who do not live inside that equilibrium—is treated as noise. Silver’s probabilities reflect the same assumption at scale. The model does not need to assume conspiracy. It only needs to assume that the historical midterm reaction will reassert itself because that is what the people who live near the model’s data sources expect to happen.
Trump Was the Hand That Went Up, Not the Creator of the Demand
I have been around the Trump issue since the Tea Party period. The demand existed before he filled it. People wanted a representative who would treat the border as a border, treat the administrative state as something that could be constrained, and reject the idea that the United States should converge toward the European or coastal-institutional model. When someone raised a hand and said he would do the job, enough of them voted for him twice. The same people are still there. Some will stay home if the candidate is weak. Many more will show up if they believe the alternative is a return to the prior arrangement.
That is why I do not treat the current Senate and House probabilities as predictive. They rest on the idea that voters will punish the president’s party for the ordinary reasons and then accept whatever the permanent government produces afterward. The people I talk to outside the Tysons corridor do not describe their choice that way. They describe it as a decision not to accept managed decline, open-ended migration without assimilation, or the expansion of process jobs at the expense of productive ones. Those preferences do not expire on a fixed calendar. They persist until the underlying conditions change or until voters decide the representative they chose is no longer doing the job.
Steve Bannon and others have floated the third-term idea. That is a separate legal and political question. The more immediate point is that the coalition does not disappear when one person leaves the stage. The administrative class that believes it can simply outlast the current presidency and restore the previous operating rules is counting on a reversion that the voters who created the opening have not signaled they want. Fairfax County mansions and secure pensions are real. They are not evidence that the rest of the country has decided to fund them indefinitely under the old terms.
What the Numbers Are Actually Measuring
Silver’s model is transparent about its inputs: polls, fundamentals, historical midterm patterns, and expert ratings. Those inputs are useful when the electorate is behaving within historical ranges. They become less useful when a significant share of the electorate has already rejected the range. The 75 percent and 93 percent figures measure the current state of polling and the weight the model assigns to past midterm reactions. They do not measure whether the people who voted for enforcement, energy production, and institutional constraint have changed their minds. From what I see, they have not.
We will know more on election night. Models can be updated. Voters can be wrong about the consequences of their choices. What I do not expect is a simple return to the equilibrium that the people shopping at the Tysons Corner Walmart treat as normal. That equilibrium required the rest of the country to keep accepting arrangements they had already rejected. Trump was the available instrument. He was not the source of the rejection. Treating the midterms as the moment when the instrument is discarded and the prior arrangement resumes is the hopeful reading inside one corridor of the administrative state. It is not the reading I take from the voters who put the instrument in place.
Footnotes
1. Contemporary reporting in early-to-mid October 2026 placed Nate Silver’s FLIPR model at approximately 75 percent for Democratic Senate control and 93 percent for House control, consistent with the figures discussed here. The model incorporates polling averages, historical midterm patterns, and other fundamentals.
2. Tysons Corner (Fairfax County, Virginia) sits adjacent to major defense-contractor concentrations and roughly a short drive from CIA headquarters in Langley. The multi-level Walmart is a documented feature of the dense, high-rise development that replaced earlier suburban patterns in the area.
3. Post-9/11 defense and intelligence contracting expanded the economic footprint of Northern Virginia. Accounts of the region describe the concentration of firms, clearances, and related employment that remains visible in the local commercial landscape.
Bibliography for Further Reading
• Nate Silver, Silver Bulletin / FLIPR methodology posts and midterm forecast updates (2026), including discussions of historical midterm waves and polling inputs.
• Paul E. Ceruzzi, Internet Alley: High Technology in Tysons Corner, 1945–2005 (history of the defense-contractor and technology corridor).
• Tim Shorrock, Spies for Hire and related reporting on the privatization of intelligence and defense functions in the Washington region.
• Victor Davis Hanson, essays on administrative growth, cultural divergence between coastal/institutional centers and the broader electorate, and the persistence of voter preferences on borders and institutions.
• Contemporary coverage of 2026 generic-ballot movement and competitive Senate races (Michigan, Ohio, Texas, and others) from multiple polling aggregators.
• Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged (on the distinction between productive enterprise and politically protected process).
• Local and regional reporting on Fairfax County demographics, federal contracting
Rich Hoffman is an author, political consultant, and strategic advisor based in Cincinnati, Ohio, and the creator of The Politics of Heaven—a unique framework that connects biblical theology, ancient history, and modern power structures to explain how moral alignment and spiritual forces shape global events. Blending real-world political experience with deep research into archaeology, UFO phenomena, and suppressed historical narratives, Hoffman offers compelling commentary on topics ranging from ancient civilizations and the Dead Sea Scrolls to modern populist movements, paranormal continuity, and leadership strategy in chaotic environments. As the author of The Gunfighter’s Guide to Business and the forthcoming Politics of Heaven, he brings a grounded yet provocative voice to media discussions, supported by firsthand experiences and a cross-disciplinary approach that bridges science, history, and theology. For interviews, speaking engagements, or expert analysis, visit richhoffmanbooks.com or contact directly via phone at 513-307-5815 or email at rhoffman@richhoffmanbooks.com. If you’ve seen the movie, Disclosure Day and want to talk about it and the implications of Presidnet Trump’s UAP disclosures, let me know and we can bring some color to your coverage. https://richhoffmanbooks.com/media-inquiries-broadcast-topics-and-contact-info/?frame-nonce=ad51e7ecba I do have a firsthand UFO encounter to discuss.
On October 4, 2026, at an Indivisible-linked “Hands Off Our Vote” event in New York City tied to the No Kings network, Robert De Niro stood at a podium and unloaded. He called the Trump administration “very f**king stupid,” labeled the president a “coward” and “fucking piece of shit,” and led the crowd in chants of “Keep your fucking hands off our vote.” He specifically warned about “masked and armed ICE thugs” stalking polling places. Mark Ruffalo followed with his own contribution to the same event. I watched the clips the way I watch any public performance—carefully, noting who is selling what and at what cost to the product.
Actors used to be hired to pretend. That was the job. When the pretending worked, audiences paid for tickets and the industry made money. When the pretending stops and the actor starts lecturing half the country that elected a president specifically to secure the border, restore some basic competence in immigration enforcement, and reject open-ended globalism, the contract is broken. De Niro is 83. He has had a long career. He is not required to like Donald Trump. He is also not required to pretend that his political opinions carry special weight simply because he once played characters people liked. The market is responding accordingly.
The Actor as Political Operative
I do not care what De Niro thinks about monetary policy, manufacturing, or border security. Those are not his fields. What interests me is the pattern. Hollywood spent years telling audiences that certain political positions were moral requirements rather than preferences. Immigration policy was treated as pure compassion rather than a question of numbers, assimilation, enforcement capacity, fiscal impact, and electoral consequences. When a large share of the audience rejected that framing and voted for enforcement, many of the same people who had sold the earlier story responded with contempt instead of curiosity.
De Niro’s specific claim—that the administration is trying to “take our votes away”—rests on the premise that ordinary enforcement measures (voter ID, citizenship verification, removal of people here illegally) equal suppression. That premise has been the Democratic position for years. It also happens to protect the practical results of large-scale illegal and low-skill immigration: denser populations in certain jurisdictions, higher demand for certain social services, and, in some places, efforts to expand local voting rights or resist cooperation with federal enforcement. Whether or not non-citizens cast large numbers of ballots in any single federal election is a narrower empirical question than the broader strategic one. States and localities have documented cases of non-citizen registration; the numbers are small relative to total turnout in most audits, but the incentives and the resistance to verification are not imaginary. Open borders plus resistance to verification is a different policy package than controlled legal immigration plus assimilation requirements.
I have written before about immigration as a military and political strategy rather than a pure humanitarian exercise. Large-scale population movements have historically altered the cultural and political character of places. That is not a novel observation. It is why sovereign countries maintain borders. The post-1965 American system, combined with weak interior enforcement for long stretches, produced outcomes that many voters decided were no longer acceptable. Trump’s second-term emphasis on removals, asylum reform, and interior enforcement is the direct result of those voters. Calling that enforcement “taking votes away” is a rhetorical move that treats the status quo of prior policy failure as the only legitimate baseline.
Globalism, Fiat, and the Preference for Managed Decline
Globalism, as practiced by many institutions, treated national borders as administrative inconveniences and national currencies as tools that could be expanded without limit. Central banks and treasuries could create claims on future production. Companies could offshore production, import labor, and expand headcount in human-resources and compliance functions that added little measurable output. When inflation and wage pressure appeared, the same voices often blamed “corporate greed” rather than the monetary and demographic conditions they had supported.
A gold standard or any hard monetary constraint forces trade-offs. Companies that cannot produce value at a price customers will pay must shrink or change. Unlimited fiat plus open labor markets lets political coalitions defer those trade-offs. Immigration policy becomes one lever among others: expand the labor pool, expand the service-using population, expand the potential future electorate through amnesty or local voting expansions, and fund the difference with borrowing or monetary expansion. That is not a conspiracy theory. It is the observable policy preference of one major party and a large share of the institutions that fund and amplify it. De Niro is not designing the policy. He is performing support for the political coalition that prefers it.
Young people in parts of Europe and the United States are discovering that the combination of high housing costs, wage competition in certain sectors, strained public services, and cultural fragmentation does not match the promises made by earlier generations of politicians and media figures. Protests occur when the gap between rhetoric and results becomes too wide. The same gap appears when Hollywood lectures audiences about values the industry itself does not consistently practice in its own business decisions.
The Market’s Response
Actors and studios still make money when the product is good enough and does not actively insult large portions of the potential audience. When the product or the public statements treat half the country as moral defects, a share of that audience stops buying. Ticket sales as a percentage of the population have declined substantially from earlier peaks. Some of that is streaming and changing habits. Some of it is the cumulative effect of messaging that treats the audience as the problem. De Niro’s upcoming projects, including the next Meet the Parents installment, have already drawn online commentary from people who say they will not pay to watch him. That is ordinary consumer behavior. It is not censorship.
The industry’s response has often been to double down on the political posture rather than reassess the product or the relationship with the audience. That is a choice. Choices have consequences. Studios that deliver competent entertainment without heavy political instruction continue to find audiences. Those that treat the movie theater as an extension of a political rally find the audience smaller than they expected. De Niro has every right to speak. Audiences have every right to stop funding the speech and the surrounding product.
Integrity as the Constraint
I have argued that integrity functions as a practical currency. Institutions and individuals that repeatedly sell claims that do not match results lose the ability to charge a premium for their next claim. Hollywood once sold the idea that its leading figures possessed special insight into American life. When those figures treat the voters who disagree with them as stupid or evil, and when the box-office results reflect the alienation, the special status erodes. De Niro’s language at the New York event is not subtle. It is not an invitation to debate policy details. It is a declaration that the other side is not merely wrong but contemptible. Large numbers of people have decided they do not need that declaration delivered by an actor.
The same pattern appears in corporate human-resources policies that prioritize political alignment over competence, in monetary policy that prioritizes short-term demand management over long-term production, and in immigration policy that prioritizes numbers and political leverage over assimilation and fiscal sustainability. Voters who put Trump in office did so, in significant part, because they wanted those priorities reversed. Actors who respond by calling the resulting administration a collection of cowards and pieces of shit are free to do so. They should not be surprised when the audience that once paid for their performances decides the entertainment value no longer justifies the accompanying lecture.
People make decisions. They live with the results. Hollywood made the decision to treat large portions of its audience as political opponents rather than customers. The industry is living with the consequences in reduced cultural reach and, in many cases, reduced commercial results. De Niro’s recent remarks are simply one more data point in a longer pattern. The pattern is not complicated. It is the ordinary result of selling a political product to people who no longer want to buy it.
Footnotes
1. Contemporary reports of the October 4, 2026, New York event detail De Niro’s language, the “Hands Off Our Vote” framing, the ICE reference, and the call for early voting and participation in the October 17 No Kings-related action. Multiple outlets carried substantially the same account.
2. State-level audits and federal prosecutions have identified limited numbers of non-citizen registrations and votes. The absolute numbers remain small relative to total turnout in most examined jurisdictions; the political resistance to routine verification and the broader demographic effects of large-scale illegal presence are separate questions.
3. Online reaction to promotional material for the new Meet the Parents film included explicit statements that viewers would not purchase tickets because of De Niro’s and Ben Stiller’s public political statements.
Bibliography for Further Reading
• Victor Davis Hanson, various essays and lectures on immigration, assimilation, and the political consequences of non-assimilating migration (Hoover Institution, PragerU, and independent commentary).
• Migration Policy Institute and Center for Election Innovation & Research trackers and explainers on non-citizen registration and voting claims (note the consistent finding of low absolute numbers alongside continued political contention).
• Heritage Foundation election-fraud database (historical compilation of prosecuted cases).
• Box Office Mojo and trade reporting on domestic ticket sales trends, 2002–2025 peaks and declines.
• UCLA Hollywood Diversity Report series (annual data on cast composition and box-office performance by demographic share).
• Stephen Follows film-data analyses on the commercial effects of heavy political messaging versus story execution.
• Contemporary reporting from Reuters, Detroit News, IBTimes UK, and The Mirror US on the October 4, 2026, De Niro remarks.
• Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged and The Fountainhead (on the distinction between productive enterprise and political extraction).
• Historical accounts of the 1965 Immigration and Nationality Act and subsequent enforcement patterns.
Rich Hoffman is an author, political consultant, and strategic advisor based in Cincinnati, Ohio, and the creator of The Politics of Heaven—a unique framework that connects biblical theology, ancient history, and modern power structures to explain how moral alignment and spiritual forces shape global events. Blending real-world political experience with deep research into archaeology, UFO phenomena, and suppressed historical narratives, Hoffman offers compelling commentary on topics ranging from ancient civilizations and the Dead Sea Scrolls to modern populist movements, paranormal continuity, and leadership strategy in chaotic environments. As the author of The Gunfighter’s Guide to Business and the forthcoming Politics of Heaven, he brings a grounded yet provocative voice to media discussions, supported by firsthand experiences and a cross-disciplinary approach that bridges science, history, and theology. For interviews, speaking engagements, or expert analysis, visit richhoffmanbooks.com or contact directly via phone at 513-307-5815 or email at rhoffman@richhoffmanbooks.com. If you’ve seen the movie, Disclosure Day and want to talk about it and the implications of Presidnet Trump’s UAP disclosures, let me know and we can bring some color to your coverage. https://richhoffmanbooks.com/media-inquiries-broadcast-topics-and-contact-info/?frame-nonce=ad51e7ecba I do have a firsthand UFO encounter to discuss.
It was good to see Trump have an event for Jon Husted at Vandalia, Ohio. More than ever, watching that event convinced me that Senator Jon Husted is the right person for Ohio. He’s a solid, practical guy who understands the state. I haven’t spent much time publicly defending him this cycle because Sherrod Brown’s return has been such a predictable mess, but I don’t think Brown has a real chance. Husted has been positioned to win this all along.
The Vandalia Rally and Why Husted Matters
Seeing Husted on stage in Vandalia with the crowd was good. Trump’s people will show up and vote; this isn’t a race to take for granted, but I expect Husted to win by four or five points once the numbers settle. Ohio isn’t as close as some national media outlets want it to be, and one of the seats Democrats are counting on flipping won’t go their way.
Husted is a top-tier senator for the job. He has been a proud business-oriented leader for years. When critics knock him on the FirstEnergy / House Bill 6 situation, the corruption accusations miss the point. That fight was about regulatory compliance, keeping nuclear capacity online, and listening to major employers in the state that bad policy was squeezing. I don’t blame him for listening to companies that employ many Ohioans. If you’re a senator or governor, part of the job is making yourself available to the people who keep the lights on and the payrolls running.
COVID Calls, Amusement Parks, and Listening to Employers
I was on several conference calls with Husted and other state officials during the COVID period. Senators, state representatives, and businesspeople tried to figure out how to keep Ohio from being locked down into oblivion. Shutdown pressure was intense, and the Republican response often fell between public-health theater and the reality of what a prolonged closure would do to the economy.
Amusement parks were a clear example. Kings Island and others were operating under rules that made little sense—social distancing on rides, capacity limits that ignored how the industry actually works, and the threat of penalties for trying to open. Those places are major employers and economic drivers. Husted and others in the administration had to navigate that mess while the parks were being squeezed. A senator or governor should be available when big employers in the state have problems. Husted has been willing to do that. I’ve seen it firsthand.
Energy policy is the same story. Nuclear, coal, and fossil fuels still run the grid. When policy turns those assets into liabilities, companies push back. Listening to them is not corruption; it’s basic competence. Good governance turns a liability into a manageable asset when the alternative is higher rates and less reliability.
A Buccaneers Fan’s Opinion About Jon Gruden’s Support of Jon Husted, a Former Teammate
I’m a Buccaneers fan, so the other Jon on that stage was a bonus. Jon Gruden won a Super Bowl with a strong defense and a quarterback who was good enough to win but not a superstar. That 2002 team was special. I’ve never gotten over how good that unit was. Gruden got knocked out of the coaching ranks over the email scandal involving comments about cheerleaders and other material that got leaked. It was a stupid episode that cost him the Raiders job and led to his removal from the Buccaneers Ring of Honor for a while.
The organization has brought him back in some capacity—broadcast work with Ronde Barber and a restored place in the franchise’s history. I’m happy about that. He flew from the Dayton area back to Tampa after the event to handle his obligations there. It was good to see him on stage talking about Husted and the season. Gruden is a leader type; he knows how to talk to people and get them moving. The Bucs are having a rough year right now, and much of that traces back to chemistry issues around Baker Mayfield. Mayfield is not Tom Brady. Brady knew how to run a locker room and get everyone pulling in the same direction. When a quarterback starts complaining about money and the team feels like he’s putting himself first, the chemistry breaks. The coaching staff has to deal with it, and the results show. Mayfield got hurt recently and wasn’t available for this week’s game, which only makes the situation harder.
The Senate Race and the Path Forward
Brown’s campaign is a disaster because it relies on the same tired playbook that lost him the seat two years ago. Husted has the record of actually governing in Ohio—secretary of state, lieutenant governor, and now senator—and the connections to the state’s employers. The people who showed up in Vandalia understand that. Trump’s voters are not staying home. The margin will not be razor-thin.
I’m proud of the affiliation. Watching Husted on stage with that crowd, and seeing Gruden there as well, was a good day. These are the kinds of practical leaders who keep a state functional instead of turning every issue into a purity test. And they have been through the pressure cooker, so we know what to expect. FirstEnergy, or any involvement in it, is the job of someone representing the governor’s office and a basic obligation. And the failures at FirstEnergy were typical leftist terrorism: destroy companies with policy. Democrats have not been in power, so they have no track record to criticize. Only that Sharrod Brown has been in government for many years and has advanced socialist causes during all those terms. It should be noted that when he was running against Bernie Moreno, the polling was tracking much like it is in this 2026 race. So that should tell you everything.
Footnotes
1. Husted was appointed to the Senate in January 2025 to fill the vacancy created by JD Vance’s elevation to vice president and is running in the 2026 special election against Sherrod Brown.
2. Brown lost his previous seat to Bernie Moreno in 2024.
3. House Bill 6 provided subsidies for nuclear and certain coal plants; FirstEnergy paid substantial penalties in related settlements, but Husted has not been charged with wrongdoing.
4. Gruden coached the Buccaneers to Super Bowl XXXVII in 2003 with a defense-led roster.
5. Buccaneers 2026 record and Mayfield’s thumb injury status as of mid-October.
6. Gruden and Husted were University of Dayton teammates in 1985; Gruden appeared at the October 3, 2026 Vandalia rally.
Bibliography for Further Reading
• Ballotpedia and official campaign materials on the 2026 Ohio Senate special election (Husted vs. Brown).
• Reporting on the FirstEnergy / HB 6 matter from the Cincinnati Enquirer, Associated Press, and FactCheck.org summaries of Husted’s role and testimony.
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers historical accounts of the 2002 Super Bowl team and Gruden’s tenure (2002–2008).
• Contemporary coverage of the October 3, 2026 Vandalia rally (local Dayton outlets and national wires).
• Buccaneers 2026 season reports on quarterback play, coaching, and roster decisions.
• Broader context on Ohio energy policy and nuclear capacity from state utility commission records and utility industry analyses.
This is the kind of grounded, practical leadership Ohio needs.
Rich Hoffman is an author, political consultant, and strategic advisor based in Cincinnati, Ohio, and the creator of The Politics of Heaven—a unique framework that connects biblical theology, ancient history, and modern power structures to explain how moral alignment and spiritual forces shape global events. Blending real-world political experience with deep research into archaeology, UFO phenomena, and suppressed historical narratives, Hoffman offers compelling commentary on topics ranging from ancient civilizations and the Dead Sea Scrolls to modern populist movements, paranormal continuity, and leadership strategy in chaotic environments. As the author of The Gunfighter’s Guide to Business and the forthcoming Politics of Heaven, he brings a grounded yet provocative voice to media discussions, supported by firsthand experiences and a cross-disciplinary approach that bridges science, history, and theology. For interviews, speaking engagements, or expert analysis, visit richhoffmanbooks.com or contact directly via phone at 513-307-5815 or email at rhoffman@richhoffmanbooks.com. If you’ve seen the movie, Disclosure Day and want to talk about it and the implications of Presidnet Trump’s UAP disclosures, let me know and we can bring some color to your coverage. https://richhoffmanbooks.com/media-inquiries-broadcast-topics-and-contact-info/?frame-nonce=ad51e7ecba I do have a firsthand UFO encounter to discuss.
I watched the verdict come in and felt the same satisfaction I get when a jury cuts through lawyer fog in under half an hour. Donald “D.J.” Byrnes, the progressive Substack writer who brands himself The Rooster, was found guilty on October 9, 2026, of telecommunications harassment, a first-degree misdemeanor, for texting Ohio Sen. Jerry Cirino an explicit, digitally altered image of Shrek holding his genitals (described in the arrest affidavit as fully nude with an exposed and erect humanlike penis engaged in masturbation) along with taunting messages after Cirino dropped out of the Senate president race.
The jury in Willoughby Municipal Court deliberated less than 30 minutes. Visiting Judge Michael Cicconetti fined him $200 plus court costs, gave no jail time, and verbally instructed him not to contact Cirino, warning that further contact would have consequences. Byrnes has 30 days to appeal. His lawyers already plan to argue the statute is overbroad and sweeps in protected political speech.
I have watched him operate at the Statehouse. This outcome tracks what I have seen.
What Actually Happened
On May 6, 2026, after Cirino withdrew from the contest to lead the Ohio Senate, Byrnes sent the Shrek image and texts that included “Good to see you finally made your humiliation public, Young Mussolini! THE PATRIOTS CAUCUS sends its regards!!!!!!!!!!” Cirino replied that he didn’t know who it was but was sure the sender was a moron. Cirino then contacted Kirtland police. Byrnes was arrested June 1 at the Ohio Statehouse by the Highway Patrol and spent roughly 23 hours in jail before release.
Prosecutors argued the unsolicited explicit image was sent with the purpose to harass, intimidate, or abuse under Ohio Revised Code § 2917.21. That is the heart of the statute: a telecommunication made knowingly with that purpose. The defense claimed political commentary and free speech—satire of a public official after Cirino had “exposed himself” politically by dropping out. The judge barred full First Amendment jury instructions, and the panel rejected the idea that this was protected political speech rather than harassment. Cirino later said it was not a free speech issue; it was a harassment statute he believed Byrnes violated.
I saw the free-speech defense collapse for the reason it always does in these cases when the conduct is aimed at one person and is unwanted and pornographic. Byrnes’ politics were never the point. Repeated, targeted, intimidating contact was.
The Haunted House Cut Both Ways
Byrnes treats free speech like a haunted house. He walks in knowing the monsters aren’t allowed to touch him, then slaps them upside the head, corners them, and pushes them, because the rules protect his speech while limiting their response. That is not how the world works. Free speech is not a shield for slapping people and then hiding behind the First Amendment when they use the law.
I have watched him at the Statehouse in shorts and a hoodie, treating the rotunda like a street corner. The place of law deserves a coat, jacket, and tie whether you like the people running it or not. He corners politicians outside bathrooms, pins them down, and pushes. Multiple representatives have described the same pattern to me. He tries to intimidate, then claims the high ground of free speech when they push back. The jury saw the Shrek text the same way: an intimidating act, not commentary. Bugs Bunny or Road Runner would have been the same if the intent was harassment. He wanted the fight more than the outcome.
His own audience of roughly 100,000 social followers and 15,000 Substack subscribers documents everything. That visibility made the single text hard to spin as pure protected speech once it landed in front of ordinary people. Lawyers can throw arguments at a wall. Regular people sat down for half an hour and said they knew what this was. I trust that jury more than the politicians or the lawyers who tried to frame it as edgy political speech.
Who He Is and Who Follows Him
I view Byrnes as a radical leftist operating with Marxist instincts aimed at undermining the Ohio legislature. His following looks like the street crowd that smokes a lot of dope and treats politics as performance. You have to be under some influence to consider voting for Amy Acton; his audience is in a different political lane from mine, but the disrespect is the same. He has a history of confrontational antics, including pranks and coverage aimed at figures like Vivek Ramaswamy. That pattern of planting innuendo and disruption matches what I have seen.
I cover the Statehouse too. The difference is method. I confront people with facts and truth they cannot easily defend. I do not send pornographic images of cartoon characters to a sitting senator to disrupt him as a person. Political commentary is one thing. Targeted harassment dressed up as free speech is another. The statute treats it that way, and the jury agreed.
What Senators and Politicians Should Do Now
This case is not only about free speech. It is about conduct and consequences. The $200 fine is almost incidental. The real damage is the residual trust, or benefit of the doubt, anyone still extends to him. He showed himself with Cirino. He has shown the same pattern elsewhere. Senators and staff do not have to cooperate with him.
They can completely ostracize him. Do not speak to him on the side. Do not give him interviews, access, or the polite benefit of the doubt that he has abused. He can still walk the Statehouse in his hoodie and shorts and write his articles. No one can stop that. But they don’t have to make his job easy by staying compliant with his intimidation. The best message is isolation: let him operate on his own little island with the audience that already agrees with him.
That is the practical, proactive step this guilty verdict supports. It erodes the idea that everyone has to tolerate his style as edgy commentary. Once the jury called the conduct harassment, the institutional response should match. Cut off the cooperation. Do not feed the performance. His audience will try to turn the appeal into martyrdom for the hippie-left crowd that protests Columbus Day and treats every conviction as proof the system is illegitimate. A long legal slug gets boring fast for that crowd. Either way, the Statehouse does not have to play along.
Where It Goes From Here
Byrnes will appeal. His lawyers will argue the statute is overbroad and that the judge improperly limited the free-speech defense, citing cases on political satire of public officials. If they win, the conviction is tossed. If they lose, it stands, and the fine is paid. The no-contact warning remains a practical barrier either way. He has already confirmed the appeal path.
I am glad the jury found him guilty. He is guilty of the conduct charged. If you do not want the trouble, do not send pictures of Shrek’s genitals to important politicians to harass them into voting or reacting the way you want. That is not political speech. It is an act. The haunted house cuts both ways, and this time the law hit back. The system worked the way it is supposed to: he used the rules, the rules used him, and ordinary people settled it in half an hour.
Politicians who have dealt with him should now treat the verdict as permission to stop cooperating. Isolation is the real sanction that fits the pattern I have watched for years. He can keep writing. They do not have to keep making it easy for him.
Footnotes
1. Multiple reports (Akron Beacon Journal, Ohio Capital Journal, Signal Ohio, The Verge) confirm the October 9, 2026 guilty verdict, <30-minute deliberation, $200 fine, and no jail. Image described as explicit/nude Shrek holding genitals or masturbating.
2. Arrest details from Columbus Dispatch coverage of the June 1 Statehouse arrest and ~23 hours in custody.
3. Ohio Revised Code § 2917.21 defines telecommunications harassment to include communications made with the purpose to harass, intimidate, or abuse.
4. Axios and other coverage note that the judge limited the First Amendment defense and that Byrnes plans to appeal within 30 days.
5. Cirino’s post-verdict statements distinguish the case as harassment, not free speech.
Rich Hoffman is an author, political consultant, and strategic advisor based in Cincinnati, Ohio, and the creator of The Politics of Heaven—a unique framework that connects biblical theology, ancient history, and modern power structures to explain how moral alignment and spiritual forces shape global events. Blending real-world political experience with deep research into archaeology, UFO phenomena, and suppressed historical narratives, Hoffman offers compelling commentary on topics ranging from ancient civilizations and the Dead Sea Scrolls to modern populist movements, paranormal continuity, and leadership strategy in chaotic environments. As the author of The Gunfighter’s Guide to Business and the forthcoming Politics of Heaven, he brings a grounded yet provocative voice to media discussions, supported by firsthand experiences and a cross-disciplinary approach that bridges science, history, and theology. For interviews, speaking engagements, or expert analysis, visit richhoffmanbooks.com or contact directly via phone at 513-307-5815 or email at rhoffman@richhoffmanbooks.com. If you’ve seen the movie, Disclosure Day and want to talk about it and the implications of Presidnet Trump’s UAP disclosures, let me know and we can bring some color to your coverage. https://richhoffmanbooks.com/media-inquiries-broadcast-topics-and-contact-info/?frame-nonce=ad51e7ecba I do have a firsthand UFO encounter to discuss.
I have been talking about this for years now, and the pattern keeps confirming itself. A few years ago, in 2022, it was Cochise County, Arizona, with Katie Hobbs as Secretary of State. Republican supervisors on the board delayed certifying the midterm results past the statutory deadline, citing concerns about the certification and accreditation of the voting machines. Hobbs, who was herself a candidate for governor against Kari Lake, sued the county to force the canvass. A judge ordered them to certify; they eventually did under threat, and later two supervisors were indicted for interference. Official accounts insist there was “no evidence of a count being incorrect,” yet the resistance itself, the attempted full hand-count that a court blocked, and the broader atmosphere of machine distrust revealed how thin the institutional trust had become.
We have seen the same dynamic in Fulton County, Georgia. In December 2025, an attorney for the county stood before the State Election Board and stated plainly that they did not dispute the failure to sign tabulator tapes covering roughly 315,000 early votes from the 2020 election—nearly all of the early in-person ballots. That directly violates the rules designed to create a verifiable chain of custody between voters and tabulated results. There have also been admissions and findings around double-scanned ballots, missing ballot images, and inconsistent batch tallies from the risk-limiting audit and recount. Officials and the Secretary of State call these clerical errors that did not change the outcome; Biden’s margin in Georgia was about 11,779 votes. Yet the volume of procedural failures is not trivial, and the late admission years later only feeds the original skepticism.
How They Thought They Would Get Away With It
This is what has always puzzled me. The Constitution and American society rest on a baseline of integrity—people raising their right hand and swearing to tell the whole truth, so help them, God. When that idea is hollowed out, the entire mechanism of voluntary cooperation collapses. Progressive globalism treated the removal of that integrity as a feature, not a bug. Without the sacred weight of the oath, testimony becomes just another tactical instrument. You can say whatever advances the narrative today and walk it back tomorrow as a “clerical error.” The goal was authority without the restraint of genuine accountability.
They preached using the power of government to reshape the individual and society, yet simultaneously pushed to defund the police. That is an obvious contradiction. If you dismantle the everyday instruments of law and order, how exactly do you intend to enforce the new authority you claim? You cannot have it both ways. Either the rules apply with consistent enforcement, or the system becomes pure power exercised by whoever controls the institutions at the moment. The progressive assumption seemed to be that once integrity was sufficiently degraded, and once enough people accepted that “the process” itself was the only legitimacy required, dissent could be managed through narrative, lawfare, and selective prosecution rather than persuasion.
Lawfare, Oaths, and the Targeting of Questioners
We saw that approach in practice. Efforts to put Trump in jail; the imprisonment of Peter Navarro for contempt of Congress related to the January 6 committee and election-related challenges; and the FBI seizure of Mike Lindell’s phone at a drive-through while he was under heavy scrutiny for questioning the machines and the results—these were not abstract debates. They showed what happens when you question the official story too persistently. At the same time, discussions continue about holding figures such as Anthony Fauci accountable for the pandemic response, yet the institutional machinery has been far more energetic in pursuing those who challenged 2020 election procedures than in applying the same standard universally.
The removal of the idea that an oath means something is central. When liberals treat the “so help me God” clause as optional theater, the entire structure of testimony and public record loses its force. That is why a candidate like Amy Acton can run for governor in Ohio with a campaign largely managed through public relations filters, raising tens of millions while avoiding direct, unscripted answers to difficult questions. The model is to control the information environment rather than submit to open scrutiny. In a system that still had robust integrity, that approach would be fatal. Once integrity is optional, it becomes a viable strategy.
The Voice of the People and the 2024 Contrast
People still went out and voted in large numbers in 2024. The red wave, though it could not be fully contained, showed that when voters have a clear channel and counting is sufficiently visible, the representative mechanism can still function. That is why calls to re-examine 2020—not as nostalgia, but as a demand that discrepancies be treated with the same seriousness as any other large-scale administrative failure—continue. Trump didn’t have to be drafted into that fight; he volunteered because the alternative was accepting a system in which the oath and the count are both flexible. It was never more complicated than that for those who still believe the mechanisms they were told were reliable should actually be reliable.
The progressive error was thinking that authority could be sustained after integrity had been systematically weakened. Without the cultural habit of telling the truth under oath, and without consistent law enforcement that does not depend on political convenience, the only remaining tools are narrative control and selective coercion. That is not a stable foundation for any society that claims to be constitutional. The admissions in places like Fulton County and the certification fights in Cochise County are not the whole story, but they clearly illustrate why so many people concluded the system had stopped treating integrity as non-negotiable.
Bibliography
• New York Times, “Republican-Controlled County in Arizona Holds Up Election Results,” November 28, 2022.
• Snopes, “Fulton County, Georgia, officials admitted ballot-handling errors during 2020 election,” December 2025 (citing State Election Board proceedings and county attorney Ann Brumbaugh’s statement).
• Atlanta News First and 11Alive reporting on the December 9, 2025, State Election Board hearing regarding unsigned tabulator tapes covering approximately 315,000 early votes.
• Associated Press and other contemporaneous coverage of Cochise County Board of Supervisors actions, Hobbs lawsuit, and subsequent judicial order to certify.
• Judicial Watch and reporting on the 2022 FBI warrant and seizure of Mike Lindell’s phone.
• Coverage of Peter Navarro’s conviction and imprisonment for contempt of Congress.
• Acton for Governor campaign finance announcements and contemporaneous polling.porting on the 2026 Ohio gubernatorial race.The record is public.
Rich Hoffman is an author, political consultant, and strategic advisor based in Cincinnati, Ohio, and the creator of The Politics of Heaven—a unique framework that connects biblical theology, ancient history, and modern power structures to explain how moral alignment and spiritual forces shape global events. Blending real-world political experience with deep research into archaeology, UFO phenomena, and suppressed historical narratives, Hoffman offers compelling commentary on topics ranging from ancient civilizations and the Dead Sea Scrolls to modern populist movements, paranormal continuity, and leadership strategy in chaotic environments. As the author of The Gunfighter’s Guide to Business and the forthcoming Politics of Heaven, he brings a grounded yet provocative voice to media discussions, supported by firsthand experiences and a cross-disciplinary approach that bridges science, history, and theology. For interviews, speaking engagements, or expert analysis, visit richhoffmanbooks.com or contact directly via phone at 513-307-5815 or email at rhoffman@richhoffmanbooks.com. If you’ve seen the movie, Disclosure Day and want to talk about it and the implications of Presidnet Trump’s UAP disclosures, let me know and we can bring some color to your coverage. https://richhoffmanbooks.com/media-inquiries-broadcast-topics-and-contact-info/?frame-nonce=ad51e7ecba I do have a firsthand UFO encounter to discuss.
When problems arise, I work through them by grinding them out deliberately and roughly. I dive deep, often isolating myself from society’s wider noise and reading intensively during the hardest stretches of labor. This is not abstract philosophy for me. It is a method forged under physical strain—long days, sore bones, limited sleep—and it has repeatedly yielded clearer answers than comfort ever has. In 2026, the question of integrity has forced me back to that method. A currency I want to believe in has failed widely, and the only way forward has been to confront it head-on, the way Jonah was swallowed by the whale and spat back out with a message he could no longer avoid.
Years ago I established a baseline by working extreme hours: sixteen-hour days Monday through Friday, with shorter days only on the weekend. I commuted by bicycle, often an hour or more round-trip, and still managed to read during brief breaks. Joseph Campbell’s The Masks of God (the multi-volume series exploring comparative mythology) was one of the books that sustained me then. Those nights around four in the morning, with ten or fifteen minutes stolen from the schedule, the pages offered a different lens on human invention of meaning. Recently the pattern has returned. I have been reading Diarmaid MacCulloch’s major works under similar pressure: The Reformation: A History, Christianity: The First Three Thousand Years, and Lower than the Angels: A History of Sex and Christianity. These are substantial volumes. Consumed in short segments amid physical exhaustion, they clarify rather than dilute. The hardship itself becomes part of the reading. Comfortable readers may absorb the narrative; those with bloody knuckles and joint pain tend to feel the stakes.
Integrity functions as a currency more durable than dollars. A dollar is worth a dollar. In my experience, integrity multiplies that value roughly tenfold in practical terms—employment, trust, the capacity to build lasting things. You cannot fake it on paper the way central banks can expand the money supply. When Richard Nixon suspended dollar convertibility to gold on August 15, 1971 (the “Nixon Shock”), the world moved further into a fiat system. The parallel in social discourse is the removal of fixed standards. Without a recognizable measure—historically supplied in the West by biblical teaching, the Commandments, and the Golden Rule—trust-based transactions become unreliable. Societies that abandon it find law and order harder to maintain, just as currencies without backing invite inflation and capture by those who print the paper.
Historically, Christianity functioned as an effective invention for establishing such standards. MacCulloch’s sweeping accounts show its development from earlier Mediterranean and Near Eastern roots, its encounter with Greek ideas, and its institutionalization through the first three millennia. Martin Luther’s stand at Worms in 1521—“Here I stand; I can do no other”—exemplifies the priority of conscience tethered to Scripture over institutional power. The Reformation, whatever its later complexities and conflicts, helped embed notions of individual responsibility and resistance to unchecked authority. These contributed to the broader Western emphasis on the rule of law, voluntary association, and limits on the sacralization of politics. Historians examining Christianity’s role in equality before God, the desacralization of the state, and the development of institutions of care and inquiry have documented measurable civilizational effects. Places that adopted or adapted these patterns often produced more orderly cooperation and material progress than surrounding alternatives. Israel’s relative success amid regional difficulties illustrates the same point: coherent standards, however imperfectly applied, produce measurable outcomes.
I have seen the opposite in practice. When people treat integrity as optional—prioritizing short-term advantage, food, status, or sex over consistent character—the results are shallow and destructive. Betrayals feel like the Judas kiss: anticipated, yet still corrosive. Low-integrity actors in business, politics, or consulting often operate through compromises (honeypots, selective enforcement of rules, or ideological capture of institutions). Corporate examples include lasting damage from certain marketing campaigns and cultural shifts in sports and entertainment that prioritized signaling over the reality of customers or employees. Globalist and administrative approaches that print moral or financial value without backing have repeatedly underperformed. They assume that authority or volume of paper can substitute for earned trust. History and recent experience show otherwise. Organizations built on high-integrity leadership—Elon Musk’s track record with SpaceX and Tesla is a clear case—succeed because the people involved endure the same grinding conditions at the top. Sleeping on the floor, working long hours, and refusing to outsource the hard problems produces systems capable of repeated launches and engineered excellence. Fiat substitutes do not.
My own choices have followed the same logic. I have turned down or walked away from money when it conflicted with integrity, not because money is unimportant, but because unbacked claims eventually collapse. Isolation by age, family responsibilities, and deliberate separation from comfortable consensus has sharpened the contrast. You notice how many people resent the mirror of consistent standards. They prefer environments where value can be assigned rather than earned. Christianity, for all its internal contradictions and failures across centuries (which MacCulloch documents without flinching), repeatedly reasserted a public measure against pure power or appetite. Efforts to erase that measure—whether through selective historical revision, institutional capture, or the claim that standards are merely tools of oppression—have not produced the stable, high-trust societies their advocates predicted.
The treasures worth retrieving come from the whale’s belly. Embracing the pain of disappointment, physical exhaustion, and clear-eyed observation of widespread failure does not invalidate the diagnosis. It supplies the clarity. I have written about related themes in The Politics of Heaven, which examines conspiracies and schemes against the ordering principles of creation, drawing on Milton’s Paradise Lost and the observable footprints of such dynamics. The same pattern appears in attempts to detach currency, law, and personal conduct from any fixed reference. Integrity cannot be stolen the way printed money or institutional prestige can. Those who defend it remain employable and effective even when low-integrity actors prefer their absence.
This is not a call to nostalgia or perfection. It is an observation that the most valuable currency to accumulate is the one that cannot be counterfeited by decree. Western civilization’s relative historical success is inseparable from the standards Christianity helped install and maintain. Restoring or protecting them requires the same grinding method that produces any durable result: long hours, discomfort, and refusal to accept substitutes. The alternative is continued inflation of claims and erosion of trust until the system fails in plain view.
Footnotes
1. Joseph Campbell, The Masks of God (four volumes: Primitive Mythology, Oriental Mythology, Occidental Mythology, Creative Mythology), Viking Press, 1959–1968. Campbell’s comparative approach traces how cultures invent and transmit frameworks of meaning.
2. Diarmaid MacCulloch, Christianity: The First Three Thousand Years (Allen Lane/Penguin, 2009). A comprehensive survey of Christian development from pre-Christian roots through global expansion.
3. Diarmaid MacCulloch, The Reformation: A History (Penguin, 2005; originally Reformation: Europe’s House Divided 1490–1700). Details the institutional and theological ruptures of the sixteenth century.
4. Diarmaid MacCulloch, Lower than the Angels: A History of Sex and Christianity (Allen Lane, 2024). Examines evolving Christian approaches to sexuality, gender, and family across millennia, highlighting contradictions and changes.
5. Richard Nixon’s suspension of dollar-gold convertibility, August 15, 1971. See Office of the Historian, U.S. Department of State, “Nixon and the End of the Bretton Woods System,” and Federal Reserve History essays on the end of gold convertibility. This marked a decisive shift toward fiat arrangements.
6. Martin Luther’s appearance at the Diet of Worms, 1521. His refusal to recant without scriptural or reasoned conviction is a standard reference point for conscience versus institutional authority. See standard biographies and MacCulloch’s Reformation history.
7. On Christianity’s contributions to Western institutions (equality of persons, rule of law, voluntary association, limits on political power), see works by George Weigel, Larry Siedentop, Nick Spencer, and others examining pre-Enlightenment Christian sources of modern norms. Outcomes were neither uniform nor unmixed with conflict.
8. Max Weber’s thesis on the Protestant ethic and the spirit of capitalism remains a classic (if debated) account of how certain religious attitudes correlated with economic patterns. Contemporary economic historians have also traced earlier monastic and legal contributions within Christian Europe.
9. Elon Musk’s operational style at SpaceX and Tesla is widely documented in contemporary reporting: long hours, direct engineering involvement, and emphasis on iterative hard work over signaling.
10. John Milton, Paradise Lost (1667). The epic’s portrayal of rebellion against ordered creation supplies a literary frame for themes of conspiracy and resistance explored in related writing.
Bibliography
Campbell, Joseph. The Masks of God. 4 vols. New York: Viking Press, 1959–1968.
MacCulloch, Diarmaid. Christianity: The First Three Thousand Years. London: Allen Lane, 2009.
MacCulloch, Diarmaid. The Reformation: A History. New York: Penguin, 2005.
MacCulloch, Diarmaid. Lower than the Angels: A History of Sex and Christianity. London: Allen Lane, 2024.
MacCulloch, Diarmaid. Silence: A Christian History. London: Allen Lane, 2013.
Milton, John. Paradise Lost. 1667.
Siedentop, Larry. Inventing the Individual: The Origins of Western Liberalism. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2014.
Weigel, George. Various essays and books on Christianity’s civilizational impact, including contributions to discussions of Western democratic and moral foundations.
Weber, Max. The Protestant Ethic and the Spirit of Capitalism. 1905.
Office of the Historian, U.S. Department of State. “Milestones: 1969–1976 – Nixon and the End of the Bretton Woods System.”
Federal Reserve History. Essays on the end of gold convertibility, August 1971.
Blainey, Geoffrey. A Short History of Christianity. (General survey of Christian historical influence.)
Stark, Rodney. The Victory of Reason and related works on Christianity and the rise of Western institutions and science.
Additional relevant reading: histories of the gold standard and fiat currency (e.g., works on Bretton Woods), studies of Protestant work ethic and economic development, accounts of corporate cultural shifts in the 2010s–2020s, and primary Reformation sources including Luther’s writings.
This text is structured for straightforward copying. The core argument remains that integrity, grounded in durable standards and tested under pressure, is the non-counterfeitable currency required for any lasting personal or civilizational achievement.
Rich Hoffman is an author, political consultant, and strategic advisor based in Cincinnati, Ohio, and the creator of The Politics of Heaven—a unique framework that connects biblical theology, ancient history, and modern power structures to explain how moral alignment and spiritual forces shape global events. Blending real-world political experience with deep research into archaeology, UFO phenomena, and suppressed historical narratives, Hoffman offers compelling commentary on topics ranging from ancient civilizations and the Dead Sea Scrolls to modern populist movements, paranormal continuity, and leadership strategy in chaotic environments. As the author of The Gunfighter’s Guide to Business and the forthcoming Politics of Heaven, he brings a grounded yet provocative voice to media discussions, supported by firsthand experiences and a cross-disciplinary approach that bridges science, history, and theology. For interviews, speaking engagements, or expert analysis, visit richhoffmanbooks.com or contact directly via phone at 513-307-5815 or email at rhoffman@richhoffmanbooks.com. If you’ve seen the movie, Disclosure Day and want to talk about it and the implications of Presidnet Trump’s UAP disclosures, let me know and we can bring some color to your coverage. https://richhoffmanbooks.com/media-inquiries-broadcast-topics-and-contact-info/?frame-nonce=ad51e7ecba I do have a firsthand UFO encounter to discuss.
I am not a fan of the surveillance state. I wrote a book against police abuse and against the abuse of authority, and I meant it. I do not like being commanded. I do not take orders well; I would have been a poor recruit for the military, and I do not like a government that knocks on the door at two in the morning and calls it a rescue. I am not big on tolls; I am not big on a camera sending me a bill for a bridge I did not mean to take, and I spent years on the radio, including with Scott Sloan on WLW, arguing against red-light cameras. Many people who usually agree with me in Butler County are against Flock cameras. Some of the township trustees I know are against them. I understand the objection. I do not share it anymore, and the reason is a month I spent as foreman of a Butler County grand jury.
That is a qualification, not a conversion. The tool is not the same thing as the hand on the tool.
Tolls, red lights, and a bill in the mail
The Louisville bridges cured me of any romance about a camera and a mailbox. RiverLink, on the Lincoln, the Kennedy, and the Lewis and Clark, has no cash lane. A camera reads the plate, and the bill finds the registered owner. Cross without a transponder, and you pay the higher pay-by-plate rate. As of July 2026, a two-axle car was $5.57 pay-by-plate against $2.79 with a transponder. [1] I got that bill once, four or five dollars in the version I remember, because I was in the wrong lane and would rather have used the other bridge. I did not like it. I had not agreed, in any way that felt like an agreement, to be invoiced by a lens.
I feel differently about the tolls on the drive to Washington and the drive toward Chicago. I pay them. Twenty-five or thirty dollars, sometimes more, and I do not hunt the free road to save three bucks. The toll road is usually the direct road, and getting on and off a free highway through a thicket of signals is its own tax. Florida still gets me. Leave Orlando toward the parks, and a couple of those plazas always find the rental. Toward Cape Canaveral it is milder. I am not a fan of any of it. A road built with taxes should not be rented back to the people who already paid for it. That objection stands. It is not the same objection as a camera that tells a prosecutor which car left a parking lot after a shooting.
What a Flock camera actually is
Flock Safety, out of Atlanta, sells automatic license plate readers. The camera does not need an officer on the corner with a notepad. It photographs the passing vehicle, and the plate number, state, time, location, and the vehicle’s color and make become a searchable record. The company says it does not do facial recognition. People are not supposed to be the data. The car is. By the summer of 2026, the New York Times had the network at about 120,000 cameras, under contract to about 7,000 agencies, which the paper put at roughly 40 percent of American departments, in every state but Alaska. Other reporting put the scan volume near 20 billion license plates a month. Default retention had been about 30 days. After a run of documented abuses, Flock said it was cutting the standard window to seven days and locking accounts that searched abnormally. [2] [3] [4]
The abuse is not theoretical. The Washington Post found more than 50 cases of officers using the databases for personal searches, often men looking up wives, girlfriends, exes, and women they wanted to meet. Dozens of cities have canceled or suspended contracts. The Electronic Frontier Foundation calls the whole arrangement invasive mass surveillance, and that description is fair for the capability. A camera that records every car records the innocent with the guilty. [4] [5] I am not going to pretend otherwise to win an argument with a trustee.
What the grand jury changed
I had always wanted to serve on a grand jury. I did not like the way the summons talks. “ Commanded to appear” is not a phrase I answer to with any pleasure. I am not a recipient of orders from a superior. I went anyway. I was selected foreman. Ohio law lets a county pay a grand juror up to forty dollars a day; the figure is set locally, and I served about twenty-six days. Over the month I took home a few hundred dollars. I spent it on books. I know which ones. They are on the shelf by the bed, and they mean more than books I bought with ordinary money. [6]
About half the time in that room was video. I estimate it’s about eighty hours of tape across the month, including witnesses on the stand and footage played against what they said. I wasn’t a fan of being summoned, and I wasn’t a fan of what I had to watch. Child-exploitation cases came in on phone video, messages arranging sex with a fourteen-year-old, the kind of evidence a detective can pull off a device. Other cases needed a place and a time. A license plate at an intersection in Middletown at 2:30 in the morning is a fact. A deputy sitting on that corner with a clipboard is a target. The drug runs between Dayton and Middletown do not slow down for a man with a pen.
One case is the one I still use when someone tells me a camera is only a toy for busybodies. Two men shot each other up after a fight that started in a bar parking lot. One of them was hit about fourteen times. They dropped a body at the emergency room at the Middletown hospital and left. The man on the stretcher would not say who shot him. Witnesses in that world do not rat each other out. Cars on the road, plates on the cameras, and the correspondence between those plates and the people who could then be found, and the guns that could then be collected, were the indictment. Without the plate reads, we did not have a case. We would have had a wounded man who would not talk, and a prosecutor with a theory.
That is the hole in the old model. Testimony used to carry more of the load because more people were afraid to lie under oath in a culture that still treated a lie as a sin, not a tactic. I do not trust unaided testimony the way a courtroom in 1955 could pretend to. People lie to your face. They lie about alibis, they lie about who was driving, they lie because the crowd they are going back to will punish the truth harder than the court will punish the lie. A camera does not join a gang. It does not forget the intersection. It does not get run over at 2:30 in the morning for writing down a number.
I have told the trustees who worry I will turn on them: I am not going to get mad at you for the cameras. I do not like a surveillance state as a lifestyle. I like a plate reader that makes an indictment possible when every human witness has a reason to go mute.
The qualification, which is the whole argument
Here is the line I will not blur. I trust this tool under a Republican administration. I do not trust it under a Democratic one.
I like law enforcement when it targets criminals. I like it in Butler County under Sheriff Jones. I like it in the Fourth Congressional District under Warren Davidson, in the Ohio Senate under George Lang, and in Columbus under a Republican majority. I like Washington under Trump in a way I didn’t before. I have been to the city several times since he went back to the White House, and I enjoy it now the way I enjoy Mount Rushmore, which is not a sentence I expected to write. The order is visible. The cops and the immigration agents look like they are doing the job in front of them rather than auditioning for a political faction. I like the FBI better with Kash Patel over it than I liked the FBI that raided Mar-a-Lago and treated a former president and his wife as a stage prop. Same building. Different hand on the warrant.
Democrats have already shown what they do with police power when they have it. The surveillance state, the early-morning knock, the selective prosecution, the use of a process crime to punish a political enemy: that was not a rumor from a pamphlet. It was the Obama years and the Biden years, in public. A Flock network in those hands is not a tool for a Middletown shooting. It is a map of where the opposition drove on Tuesday. The company itself has had to warn users off searches tied to reproductive-care laws in some states and off immigration searches in others, which admits the search box can be aimed at politics as easily as at a stolen car. [2] Officers have already aimed it at their private lives. [5] I would not give that keypad to an administration that has used the IRS, the intelligence agencies, and the Justice Department as factional weapons.
So the policy I actually hold is narrower than “cameras good” or “cameras bad.” Cameras, plate readers, and the data centers that make the search possible, under officials who can be thrown out of office and who are not already in the habit of aiming the state at their critics. If the other party takes the offices, the same hardware becomes a reason to rip the contract out. I would rather pass a clean rule now, retention short, searches logged, personal queries a firing offense, immigration and political queries banned by statute, than pretend the objection is the lens.
Data centers are a separate argument, and I have been on that side in Butler County while opposing the nosy state. A data center is a building that hires people and pays taxes and gives a county the computing power the next economy runs on. It is not a warrant. Treating every server rack as a spy camera is how you talk yourself out of the jobs and then act surprised when the investigative database lives in another state anyway. I support the centers. I do not support a government that uses every stream of data just because the stream exists.
Mount Rushmore, Deadwood, and the point of the order
I trust the places where the country still feels like itself. Mount Rushmore is the one I send people to if they have never gone. Better to go during the Sturgis rally, ride the Badlands, take the Iron Mountain road down toward Custer, see the buffalo, then drive up to Deadwood for a hamburger in one of those bars on the strip. The fries taste better next to a street where the old gunmen walked, and a sheriff holding a hard town is still the right picture of the job: Devils Tower, the Tetons, Jackson Hole: same sensation. America is a physical place, not a policy memo.
I have been to the bookstore at Rushmore with my oldest daughter. Everyone else was ready for the car. We had done the avenues and the little passage in the hills, and she and I stayed and carried books out. They are on the shelf. Grand jury service sits in that same part of my memory, which will sound strange to anyone who has not done it. A few hundred dollars, a stack of books, and a month of looking at what people actually do to each other when they think no one can place the car. Since that month I have been back to Washington, and I like the city more than I did. The obelisk and the Masonic ornament do not bother me the way they once did. A country that can put Trump back in that house, after the lawfare and the raid, has earned some patience with its marble.
I do not trust people as much as I used to, not under oath and not in a parking lot. I trust a timestamp. I trust a plate. I trust a data center that keeps the record long enough to indict and not long enough to build a dossier on a life. I do not think the camera network is a Chinese social-credit poster, and I do not think the machine on the other end is HAL, waiting to lock the pod bay doors. The rational machine does not wipe out the creature that can pull its plug. It behaves more like a working dog than like a coup. That is my view of the technology, and it is open to evidence. It is not open to the slogan that every lens is a prison.
If you want the practical version, it is this. Vote for the sheriff, the prosecutor, the trustee, and the president who will aim the cameras at the shooting in the bar lot and not at the donor list. Say yes to the Flock contract with a short retention and a public log of searches. Say no, immediately, if the people in charge have already shown they will use a warrant as a campaign. Churches on Sunday will not replace a plate read at 2:30 in the morning, and a plate read will not replace a county that still elects the hand on the switch. You need both. I have seen cases where you do not get a ticket if you only have the sermons and the witnesses.
Notes
[1] RiverLink tolls the Abraham Lincoln Bridge, the John F. Kennedy Memorial Bridge, and the Lewis and Clark Bridge with no cash lanes. Cameras match the plate to the registration and mail an invoice if there is no transponder account. As of the July 1, 2026 adjustment, a two-axle pay-by-plate toll was $5.57, against $2.79 with a transponder. Toll Wiki, “Kentucky Toll Bridge — RiverLink,” citing the bi-state rate resolution; RiverLink pay-by-plate instructions.
[2] Flock Safety’s network was reported at about 120,000 cameras and about 7,000 law-enforcement customers, roughly 40 percent of U.S. departments, in every state but Alaska. Searches can be run across agencies. The system prompts users away from reproductive-care searches in jurisdictions that bar them and away from immigration searches in others. Kashmir Hill and Fernando Alfonso III, “Why are Flock cameras controversial?” The New York Times, August 10, 2026.
[3] Reporting in 2026 put Flock’s volume near 20 billion license-plate scans a month. A scan can include plate, state, time, location, color, make, and model. The company says the cameras do not use facial recognition. Default deletion had been about 30 days. TechSpot, “License plate cameras are scanning 20 billion vehicles a month,” June 30, 2026. In August 2026, Flock said it would shorten standard retention to seven days and lock accounts showing abnormal search behavior. Associated Press, “Surveillance tech company Flock announces platform changes amid public backlash,” August 13, 2026.
[4] The Marshall Project, “The Flock Backlash Catches Up to the Tech,” October 3, 2026, summarizing the Washington Post’s count of more than 50 unauthorized searches, often personal, and the Electronic Frontier Foundation’s description of ALPRs as invasive mass surveillance. The Institute for Justice’s tracker, cited there, counted 247 full cancellations of ALPR programs.
[5] Same Marshall Project account, October 3, 2026, on officer misuse. See also AP, August 13, 2026: more than 50 agencies or jurisdictions had canceled, suspended, rejected, or deactivated Flock cameras since the start of the year, by a DeFlock count.
[6] Ohio Revised Code 2939.04: grand-juror pay is fixed by the board of county commissioners and may not exceed forty dollars a day, paid from the county treasury. The per-day figure in the essay is the author’s recollection of Butler County service, within that statutory cap. The supervisor may be selected by the common-pleas judge under R.C. 2939.02.
Bibliography
Associated Press. “Surveillance tech company Flock announces platform changes amid public backlash.” August 13, 2026.
Electronic Frontier Foundation. Atlas of Surveillance, and EFF writing on automated license plate readers as mass surveillance. https://atlasofsurveillance.org
Hill, Kashmir, and Fernando Alfonso III. “Why are Flock cameras controversial?” The New York Times, August 10, 2026.
Institute for Justice. Automated license plate reader cancellation tracker, cited in The Marshall Project, October 3, 2026.
Marshall Project. “The Flock Backlash Catches Up to the Tech.” October 3, 2026.
Ohio Revised Code, sections 2939.02 and 2939.04. Grand jury foreman; compensation.
RiverLink. Official payment and account pages for the Louisville-Southern Indiana Ohio River bridges. https://riverlink.com
TechSpot. “License plate cameras are scanning 20 billion vehicles a month, cities are starting to push back.” June 30, 2026.
Toll Wiki. “Kentucky Toll Bridge — RiverLink.” Rate table including the July 1, 2026 adjustment.
Wisconsin Right Now. “Shootings, Stabbings, A Kidnapping Attempt: Flock Cameras Helped Crack These Waukesha County Cases.” September 29, 2026. Local case summaries in which a plate reader identified the suspect vehicle.
WIS-TV. “Inside Richland County’s Flock network: 94 murders solved amid mounting privacy debate.” September 29, 2026. Sheriff’s office figures: 687 investigative successes, 296 vehicles recovered, 94 homicides assisted by ALPR data since 2023. One department’s numbers, not a national rate.
Rich Hoffman is an author, political consultant, and strategic advisor based in Cincinnati, Ohio, and the creator of The Politics of Heaven—a unique framework that connects biblical theology, ancient history, and modern power structures to explain how moral alignment and spiritual forces shape global events. Blending real-world political experience with deep research into archaeology, UFO phenomena, and suppressed historical narratives, Hoffman offers compelling commentary on topics ranging from ancient civilizations and the Dead Sea Scrolls to modern populist movements, paranormal continuity, and leadership strategy in chaotic environments. As the author of The Gunfighter’s Guide to Business and the forthcoming Politics of Heaven, he brings a grounded yet provocative voice to media discussions, supported by firsthand experiences and a cross-disciplinary approach that bridges science, history, and theology. For interviews, speaking engagements, or expert analysis, visit richhoffmanbooks.com or contact directly via phone at 513-307-5815 or email at rhoffman@richhoffmanbooks.com. If you’ve seen the movie, Disclosure Day and want to talk about it and the implications of Presidnet Trump’s UAP disclosures, let me know and we can bring some color to your coverage. https://richhoffmanbooks.com/media-inquiries-broadcast-topics-and-contact-info/?frame-nonce=ad51e7ecba I do have a firsthand UFO encounter to discuss.
I started this blog, and the videos that go with it, fifteen or twenty years ago for one reason. I needed a platform that would stand up to the tax increases coming out of the Lakota Local School District. I went to Lakota schools. I live in Liberty Township. Affiliation with a school district in your own community does not oblige you to throw money at it. That is a dumb way to run a household, and an even dumber way to run a township. School boards use that money, more often than not, for left-wing political control. I am getting ready to say more about who sits on those boards and who gets elected to them. I have been part of these campaigns forever. I am happy to see more people involved now than used to be.
This is a shout-out. I was pleased to open the mailbox and find Diane Hughes’s piece. Good on her. Good on Kristi Ertle. Good on Jamie and Todd Minniear. More people in the background than I am naming here are working this issue the way it has to be worked. For the 2026 Lakota levy, the answer is still no. It went down in flames last time. They went out, raised some money, raised enough to fight another campaign, and came back. I talked to Kristi Ertle about this very thing during the last campaign. They knew Lakota would return with a smaller swipe if they failed. They would break it up and make it look easier. That is what they are doing.
What Landed in the Mailbox, and Why It Matters More Than a Podcast
This is essentially a renewal dressed up for the 2026 ballot. Diane and the people around her have been very good about saying so. The mailer is great material. The bullet points are clean. This isn’t just a podcast or a blog that updates when I get around to it. It is a traditional mailer, which is still how a lot of voters in Butler County like to take in an issue. Your information is in the mail. They did a nice job pointing out why you should not vote for this thing.
Paragraph two on that sheet is the whole argument. The original one-mill bond will pay off this year. For a $450,000 home, which is most everybody in Liberty Township and a fair description of what a house is worth around here, you will see $157 in reduced tax liability the following year. Stay with that number. Congratulations. You are about to get that money back if you do not hand it right back to the district.
I used to do this work by standing in the middle of it and saying no, no, no, and handing out statistics. They are doing a better job than I did. They are a better group. They stick together better. The information is nice and clean, and it arrives the way a lot of people who still vote in Butler County want it. Not everybody wants a website. Not everybody wants a blog. A lot of them want it in the mailbox, with the details on one sheet. There are your details.
The Math on a $450,000 House
Here is the line that matters. On a $450,000 house, you are voting this year to get tax money back.
Ohio measures these things in mills. One mill is one dollar of tax for every thousand dollars of assessed value, and residential property is assessed at 35 percent of market value. On the county auditor’s market-value scale that school campaigns actually use, that works out to about $35 a year per mill for every $100,000 of home value. A one-mill bond on a $450,000 house is four and a half times $35. That is $157.50. The mailer rounded it to $157. Either way, it is your money.¹
The district will tell you a different story, and you should hear it so you know what you are voting against. After voters rejected the big ask in November 2025, Lakota came back with a bond issue of about $223.5 million, listed at 2.20 mills, or $77 per $100,000 of market value, on the November 3, 2026 ballot. They say collections would not start until 2029, lined up with older bond debt rolling off at the end of 2028, and that the rate you pay would not go up. The Journal-News reported the other half of that sentence, which the district does not lead with. People opposing the replacement point out that a no vote is how you actually reduce the school property tax when that debt expires.² The mailer is aimed at the piece that pays off now. Let it pay off. Do not replace it.
A $100,000 evaluation is the figure newspapers still use, and it is the wrong way to measure real estate in Butler County. You cannot buy a tool shed for $100,000 anymore. They nailed it by putting a $450,000 house on the flyer. Some homes here are worth more than that. Some are worth less. That is the real number.
They Lost Big in 2025 and Came Back Smaller, Just as Predicted
Last November, Lakota asked for a bond on the order of $506 million, a sum both the district and Liberty Township Trustee Todd Minniear treated as the largest school levy request in Ohio history. It failed. Unofficial results had about 61 percent of voters rejecting it.³ That is not a close call. That is a community saying no.
I told Kristi, during that campaign, that a loss would not be the end of it. They would raise money and return with something easier to sell. Break it into pieces. Call it a renewal. Tell people the rate does not go up. That is the play, and it is the play they ran. The board voted in June 2026 to put the smaller facilities bond on this November’s ballot. The pro-levy campaign now says the rate you pay today is the rate you would pay tomorrow.⁴ That is the sales pitch. The answer is still no. If the old debt is about to die, let it die. Give the money back. If Lakota gets voters in the 50% range, they will be inspired to come back again thinking they are weakening the community.
Lakota runs on about a quarter-billion dollars a year. That has not been enough for them. The more you give, the more they ask. The more they ask, the more gets wasted. Vote no, and you are not starving a classroom. You are declining to extend a debt the district already told you was on a schedule to end.
Public Education Mimics a Family and Still Fails at the Job
We have talked a lot about GOP politics. Put five people in a room, and you usually get five disagreements. Those five will talk about three of the others the minute the three leave. Human beings are built that way. Our minds construct themselves around a family structure. Parents. A household. Dinner. Whatever you watched together after dinner. Public schools try to mimic that basic arrangement. They have never captured it. Public education was well-intentioned and has failed at the human part of learning. That is what we are against here.
People bond up to achieve anything in a Republican Party, or even in an anti-tax campaign, from different points of understanding. We learned differently. We had different parents and different household rituals. It is hard to make that into a team. In politics, you still have to agree on something. The ballot card is that something. It tells you who to vote for. There is a barcode on it. Scan it, and it comes up on your phone, so you are not standing in the booth trying to remember the names.
I can tell you, going down that list, that there have been debates about every one of these people. Are they good? Are they pure? Are they the kind of people we should have primaried? Would a Democrat in that seat be better? Here is the thing you actually need to think about in this election. The Lakota levy, for sure. We are in a stage of American government where a lot of money has been confiscated. We have been taxed too high for too long. Government does not get smaller by itself. You have to take the rebates when they come due. That is what this levy vote is. It is about getting money back.
If you have a $450,000 house, the district’s argument amounts to this: can’t you give us that $157 so we can keep doing what we have been doing? Purple hair. Confused sexual policy in the bathrooms. Teachers who develop the wrong kind of relationship with students. A student is always in a weaker position than the adult in the room. Every school year we get angry at a school board for not taking a hard stance, and we ask where the moral authority went, and why people we pay good money to teach valuable things behave badly and then hide behind the institution when they are caught. Should we take money away from a system that lets us down like that? Yes. Should we take it back since the rate is already too high and needs to come down? Yes. You deserve that $157.50 on a $450,000 home. Diane and the gang put the reasons on paper. I think they do it better than I used to.
The Slate Card Is the One Thing a Party Can Agree On
When I show up at a local Republican picnic, I am friendly. I shake hands. That part is real, and it is good. I go to a lot of them. I do not go to all of them. I can’t attend everything, and I would like to attend more. You can be decent in the room and still, on the drive home, not like somebody very much. Most of that is not ideology. It is the way we learned to communicate inside a family. Families matter. Bloodline matters. Call it God’s design or call it the long argument I have been writing about in other places: the failure in the first household became everybody else’s failure down the line. A political system still has to get to something like fifty percent plus one. Otherwise you get a 20 or 30 percent faction deciding the election for everybody else.
I learned that lesson in 1992. I supported Ross Perot. He took about 19 percent of the vote, pulled it away from the Republican, and we got Bill Clinton, who should never have been president. Clinton was a disaster. Three candidates on the ballot will do that. You have to work it out with other people if you want a majority. There is a hard 50 percent of Republicans way over on one side, and people are standing on the line.
Nancy Nix and I have talked about this. Nancy is great. She is sweet. I love her mom. I love her sister. She knows how I feel about her. I love her husband. They are good people. I think Bob is probably more politically aligned with me than she is. She is a very nice person. My wife is a nice person. I would say my wife would probably be a Democrat if she were not married to me. It is impossible to live in a house with me, and share a bed with me, and be a Democrat. It could not happen. I do not like Democrats. I can still sit down with people. One skill I actually have, when applied to anyone outside myself, is leadership. I know how to bring people to the one thing they agree on and use that to get the direction right. That is what the Republican slate card is. That is why you vote to get your tax money back instead of penalizing yourself by renewing a subsidy to a progressive incubation factory. Lakota is a serious tax burden on this community. Take the money. Dial the tax back. Do not keep growing it.
They will say you are only paying the same money you have always paid. Give that money back to yourself and put it toward something else. It is not a lot of money in the scheme of one household. It is a lot of money when you multiply it by the households inside the Lakota district. They do not need it. They need to dial it back so the rest of us can get something that looks like budget control.
Running in the Black Is How You Get a Rebate
Republicans, whatever else you want to say about them, do not spend every dollar they get. They tend to run in the black. That is how you get options. Ohio just showed the trick at the state level. On October 1, 2026, Governor Mike DeWine signed the bill suspending the state gas tax for 90 days. The gasoline tax is 38.5 cents a gallon. The diesel tax is 47 cents. Lawmakers covered it with $725 million out of the General Revenue Fund so road and bridge work would not stop, and they did it because the state was running ahead of its spending. Collection drops to nearly nothing from early October through January 2, 2027.⁵ A lot of work in the background made that possible. George Lang and plenty of others put time into it that they will not brag about. The man who carried a lot of that is more modest than I am. He will not tell you how much work he did.
I have said bad things about DeWine. I had a picture of myself with him this year, and people asked how I could do that. He was the lockdown governor. He put the health department in charge of ordinary life. He has been a RINO for years. All of that is true. I think of him as a Yellow Springs Democrat who ended up with an R after his name. Yellow Springs is a hard place to drive through without smelling marijuana somewhere on the street. It is a liberal pocket, Clifton Gorge over there with it, a peculiar little part of the state. The DeWines are nice people. Fran DeWine makes great cookies. I like them. I think he is a decent person. I do not think he is a very strong Republican. Over the years, I have worked with him. People I respect have worked with him. Sitting down with somebody is not the same thing as surrendering your own politics. Debate is good. People do not have to like each other. They can talk about each other when they are out of the room. I attribute most of that to upbringing, not a platform failure.
He signed the gas-tax suspension. I was proud of that rebate. He knows Vivek Ramaswamy is coming in to continue tax work that didn’t get finished this term. Vivek worked with Trump. I saw them in Vandalia. They are going to be close, and that will help Ohio. Over the next few years, there is a real chance to save a lot of money on taxes in this state and get business innovation moving, especially with the people who actually build things. The same logic applies in Liberty Township. You only get the rebate if somebody was willing to run in the black long enough for the debt to end.
The Names on the Card, and Why They Do Not Have to Agree
The card is strong. Warren Davidson is on it. I have talked to Davidson recently about the votes he goes against President Trump. At Vandalia, Trump said nice things about him and called him out to that audience, because Davidson is a sincere person. His office is at the end of my road. I can walk over there in about four minutes. If you do not know the building, it sits next to Right to Arms, where they sell guns. He is a solid congressman. He is on the card.
Jon Husted is on it for the Senate. I will do a whole piece on Jon, which he deserves. I was glad to see him out there saying what he has been saying. Diane Mullins is on it. She is a pastor. Does she get along with everybody who has been treated as mainstream for a long time? Probably not. I come out of what people call the religious right. I love those people. They are fire and brimstone on ethics and on law and order. They do not put up with much. They are not happy with Lakota’s moral position, and they do not want more money going to a school system that does not represent moral order. They like their churches. The churches do a good job.
Within about a mile and a half of my house in Butler County, counting quickly, there are nine churches. I have come to think of churches as a hidden part of good government. The more real church participation you have, and the more of those churches are actually around, the better the quality of the place. People can behave badly on Saturday and ask forgiveness on Sunday. That is at least better than having no ethics at all.
Put the people on this card in a room, and they will not agree on much. Thomas Hall and Jennifer Gross can fight about nine different things. I have watched them, over a long period, fight, then hug, and do good work together on the things that mattered. That is the job. Find the one thing they agree on. Do not build the meeting around the things they do not agree on. Warren Davidson and President Trump have had differences. I have talked to Davidson about those differences. He will tell you he is trying to be a free thinker and still be supportive. He is a good, honest man. There are good, honest people in this, even when they are not identical.
We can all agree that the Lakota levy is a disaster. Vote no on it. It does not matter where you enter the party. You can be right on the 50 percent line, half a step from becoming a Democrat. You can be a hard Republican. My wife is more than a 50 percent Republican. There are things, helping people who are down and out, where her instincts run softer than mine. She would probably like a lot of Lakota teachers because they are well-intentioned. Call her 60 percent, ten points into Republican territory. I am a 99.99999999 percent Republican. You can’t go much farther and still be in the conversation. Jonathan Edwards is conservative. That is where I am. I completely understand that point of view. My wife is nicer than I am. We are married, and we work it out. A lot of Republicans fit somewhere between those two spots. Bob Nix and I are probably close on most things. Nancy and I do not argue. I have never argued with her. She is too decent for that. We would still disagree on things. There have been times I was a no, no, no, and she brought me to a yes, not because she is nice, but because the logic was better and I was willing to hear it. You have to be willing.
All of these Republicans, and what we do together, comes down to the thing we mostly agree on. Stick to it. Build the party around it. They really did that in paragraph two of this mailer.
The People Who Built the Piece, and Why I Am Glad They Did
There is a lot of good material on that sheet. They give you the reasons. I am not going to overdo it. Jamie Minniear, super. Todd Minniear, super. Kristi Ertle, super. Diane Hughes, super. One thing people can rally around is sitting in that paragraph and putting it in the mail. This is a great mailer. Great campaign work.
I remember when we used to fight a Lakota levy and I had to be at the center of it. I know how hard it is. They are doing it better than we did. We were learning. They are better at it than we were. I am happy to say that. I see a sharp hand in deciding to identify the hot issue: the $450,000 home and the $157 you get back if you vote no. I believe Kristi came up with that line. There is a lot of talent on this side of the issue. I love seeing them grow and get better. They are smart. They are the future of politics in Liberty Township and Butler County. I am proud they are affiliated with churchgoing people. They are solid. They did a good job pointing at the real issue—$ 450,000 value. Vote no. Get back $157.50. They even broke it out further down the card, which is better still.
Years ago, when I was in the middle of these fights, some people thought I was using Lakota to promote myself. I was writing books. I was on WLW. I will not pretend I never wanted the radio time, or that I never wanted the books and the other projects to move. I did not want to talk about a Lakota levy all the time. I did not want to be involved. I got involved because no one else was stepping up. That is no longer the situation. The bench is deeper. The work is cleaner. I am glad to be out of the center of it.
Vote No, and Give the Money Back to the People Who Earned It
The bottom line, for anybody who only wants the reason, is this. Why is the answer on Lakota still no? Because you want your $157 back. Lakota owes you that. They have not spent the money well. We already give them a quarter-billion-dollar budget every year, and it is not enough, and they keep asking. Vote for Republicans who run in the black. That is how you get options. That is how you get money back. That is why the state could suspend the gas tax. Republicans have been in power long enough and held the line long enough to give some of it back. The same thing is sitting in front of you locally. This one-mill bond is about to be paid off. It is time to get that money back.
Vote no. You get some of your own money back next year. That is a good vote. It is a big no for me. It is a huge no. Good work to everybody who built the case, and good work to Diane and the gang. I am proud of what they have done. They did it better than I was used to, and I love seeing that. If you are new to this fight, this is the issue. A school district is not entitled to a renewal just because a bond is about to die. Let it die. Keep the $157.50.
Notes
1. Ohio taxes residential property on 35 percent of market value. One mill equals $1 per $1,000 of assessed value, which is $35 per $100,000 of market value. A one-mill levy on a $450,000 house is 4.5 × $35 = $157.50. The mailer figure of $157 is that arithmetic, rounded. Lakota’s own 2026 ballot language prices 2.20 mills at $77 per $100,000 of county-auditor market value, which is the same $35-per-mill scale. See the district’s Resolution to Proceed, filed for the November 3, 2026 election; Butler County Board of Elections certification deadline: August 5, 2026.
2. Lakota Local Schools, board action of June 9, 2026, placed a bond of $223,483,492 on the November 3, 2026 ballot, average 2.20 mills, estimated at $77 per $100,000, first due in calendar year 2029. The district says an existing bond of about 2.2 mills ends as the new one would begin, so the rate would not rise. Journal-News, October 2, 2026, “Lakota Schools voters to decide on bond tax for new, expanded school buildings,” notes that opponents treat a defeat as the chance to cut the tax when the old debt expires. Both claims should be read together. “No increase” means they want you to replace a tax that is ending. A no vote is how the ending actually shows up on the bill.
3. Cincinnati Enquirer, November 4–5, 2025, “Lakota Local Schools’ historic levy fails.” The November 4, 2025 request, on the order of $506 million and described by the district and by Trustee Todd Minniear as the largest school levy ask in Ohio history, failed with about 61 percent voting no. Enquirer, October 28, 2025, “Lakota’s ‘last resort’ historic levy divides board candidates, voters.”
4. Pro-levy campaign site Vote For Lakota (lakotaforkids.com), and Lakota’s facilities page, “Lakota Board Approves November 2026 Ballot Issue for Facilities Plan,” June 17, 2026, updated September 12, 2026. The district’s line is that the 2.2-mill bond replaces expiring debt and does not raise the rate. Local share is given as about $223 million after roughly $77 million in Ohio Facilities Construction Commission co-funding, down from a prior proposal near $400 million. Early in-person voting in Butler County began October 6, 2026. Election Day is November 3, 2026, with polls open from 6:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m. Ohio photo ID is required.
5. Governor Mike DeWine signed House Bill 519 on October 1, 2026, suspending Ohio’s 38.5-cent gasoline tax and 47-cent diesel tax for 90 days, funded with $725 million from the General Revenue Fund so state and local road work would continue. The pause runs from about October 4, 2026, through January 2, 2027. Cincinnati Enquirer / Columbus Dispatch, October 1, 2026; Ohio Senate President Rob McColley, September 30, 2026. The bill moved after Vivek Ramaswamy called for the holiday. A surplus on that scale is what “running in the black” looks like when a party decides to give money back.
6. Butler County Republican slate for November 3, 2026, includes Vivek Ramaswamy for governor, Jon Husted for U.S. Senate, Warren Davidson for Congress in the 8th District, Nancy Nix for county auditor, Michael V. Ryan for county commissioner, Jennifer Gross (House District 45), Thomas Hall (House District 46), and Diane Mullins (House District 47), along with the statewide row and the judicial row. Ohio Republican Party Butler County slate card, September 2026; Butler County GOP, “Who’s on the GOP ticket?”; Cincinnati Enquirer, October 1, 2026, “Who’s running for what in Butler County.” Sheriff Jones is not on this ballot line, but he remains part of the law-and-order bench this county has relied on.
7. Ross Perot took 18.9 percent of the national popular vote in 1992. Bill Clinton won the presidency with 43.0 percent of the popular vote and 370 electoral votes; George H. W. Bush took 37.4 percent. The spoiler lesson is the one I have used ever since. A faction that doesn’t get to fifty doesn’t get to govern. It gets to crown the other side.
8. On teacher misconduct: every year, in districts all over the country, cases come out of schools in which an adult used a position of authority over a minor. Those cases should be read as allegations until a court finishes them, and as convictions where a court already has. The point for a levy vote is not any one case. It is that a community paying a very large tax has a right to expect moral order from the institution, and a right to stop extending debt when that order is not there. The Ohio Department of Education and Workforce holds public records on certified-employee discipline.
For Further Reading
Lakota Local Schools, Resolution to Proceed on the November 3, 2026 bond issue, Butler County, principal amount $223,483,492, 2.20 mills, $77 per $100,000 of auditor market value.
Journal-News, “Lakota Schools voters to decide on bond tax for new, expanded school buildings,” October 2, 2026.
Cincinnati Enquirer, “Lakota Local Schools’ historic levy fails,” November 5, 2025, and “Lakota’s ‘last resort’ historic levy,” October 28, 2025.
Vote For Lakota, lakotaforkids.com, pro-levy campaign page for the November 3, 2026 bond.
Lakota Local Schools, “Lakota Board Approves November 2026 Ballot Issue for Facilities Plan,” June 17, 2026.
Butler County Board of Elections, elections.bcohio.gov, for early-vote hours, polling places, and photo-ID rules. Early voting opened October 6, 2026.
Ohio Republican Party, 2026 Butler County Republican slate card; Butler County GOP, “Who’s on the GOP ticket?”
Cincinnati Enquirer, “Gov. DeWine signs bill to suspend Ohio gas tax for 90 days,” October 1, 2026. House Bill 519.
Ohio Senate, Rob McColley, “Senate Approves Gas Tax Suspension,” September 30, 2026.
Federal Election Commission, 1992 presidential general election results, for the Perot share and the Clinton plurality.
Butler County Auditor, for the parcel-level tax bill on any house in Liberty Township or West Chester. The mailer’s $450,000 example is the right scale for this township. The $100,000 example used in older newspaper copy is not.
Rich Hoffman is an author, political consultant, and strategic advisor based in Cincinnati, Ohio, and the creator of The Politics of Heaven—a unique framework that connects biblical theology, ancient history, and modern power structures to explain how moral alignment and spiritual forces shape global events. Blending real-world political experience with deep research into archaeology, UFO phenomena, and suppressed historical narratives, Hoffman offers compelling commentary on topics ranging from ancient civilizations and the Dead Sea Scrolls to modern populist movements, paranormal continuity, and leadership strategy in chaotic environments. As the author of The Gunfighter’s Guide to Business and the forthcoming Politics of Heaven, he brings a grounded yet provocative voice to media discussions, supported by firsthand experiences and a cross-disciplinary approach that bridges science, history, and theology. For interviews, speaking engagements, or expert analysis, visit richhoffmanbooks.com or contact directly via phone at 513-307-5815 or email at rhoffman@richhoffmanbooks.com. If you’ve seen the movie, Disclosure Day and want to talk about it and the implications of Presidnet Trump’s UAP disclosures, let me know and we can bring some color to your coverage. https://richhoffmanbooks.com/media-inquiries-broadcast-topics-and-contact-info/?frame-nonce=ad51e7ecba I do have a firsthand UFO encounter to discuss.
The signed version is House Bill 519. Governor DeWine signed it October 1. The cut started at 12:01 a.m. October 4 and runs through 11:59 p.m. January 2, 2027.
Ohio did something useful at the start of October 2026. The General Assembly suspended the state motor fuel tax for 90 days, and Governor Mike DeWine signed the bill. For the next three months, the state tax on gasoline drops from 38.5 cents a gallon to one-hundredth of one cent. The diesel tax drops from 47 cents to the same token rate. The lost revenue, about $725 million, is covered out of a General Revenue Fund surplus. Roads and bridges are not being raided to pay for it. The Rainy Day Fund is not being raided either. That is the whole story, and it is a better story than the price of a gallon usually gets.
I live in Butler County. Senator George Lang is my senator, and he was in the middle of getting this into shape. A lot of people had to touch it. That is how a legislature is supposed to work. One member does not pass a tax cut alone. Somebody still has to walk the Statehouse, catch a colleague at the water fountain, and get the vote. Lang was doing that work, and he was out announcing the suspension as the vote came together, which is what you do when you are leaning on the thing rather than waiting to see how it lands. I will give him the credit he earned. I will also name the people whose names are on the paper, because a useful account has to be accurate.
What the law actually does
House Bill 519 started as a vehicle-theft bill, aimed at electronic devices used to steal cars. The Senate amended the gas-tax holiday into it so the relief could move in days instead of months. The holiday language came from Senate Bill 475, sponsored by Senators Michele Reynolds of Canal Winchester and Jane Timken of Canton. The House bill itself was sponsored by Representative Andrea White of Kettering. On September 30 both chambers passed the package as an emergency: 26–5 in the Senate, 78–16 in the House. DeWine signed it the next morning, October 1. Because of the emergency clause, there was no 90-day wait. The reduction began at 12:01 a.m. on October 4, 2026, and it ends at 11:59 p.m. on January 2, 2027. [1] [2] [3]
The rate does not go to a flat zero. It goes to $0.0001 per gallon. That is an accounting choice, and a smart one. If Ohio levied no tax at all, some border counties could get hit by a neighboring state’s tax on fuel sold into Ohio. A token rate keeps that from happening and still takes essentially the whole state tax off the ticket. The holiday covers gasoline and diesel only. Compressed natural gas and propane are not in it. [4] [5]
Retailers have to pass the savings through. Failure to do that can be treated as an unfair or deceptive act and referred to the Attorney General. A receipt mandate that station owners opposed, and the $1 million that would have paid for it, came out of the final bill. The Department of Taxation got $250,000 to administer the break. The department told retailers to have their systems reset by midnight on October 4. [2] [6]
What a fill-up is worth
On a 15-gallon gasoline purchase the state piece is about $5.78, if the cut shows up at the pump. On 20 gallons it is about $7.70. A 20-gallon diesel fill is about $9.40. A work truck that takes 100 gallons of diesel is looking at about $47 off the state tax on that one stop. Over 90 days, for a family that fills up once a week, the gasoline savings are real money, not a rounding error. Statewide, the estimate is more than $725 million left at the pump instead of sent to Columbus. [1] [4]
The federal tax is still there. Washington still collects 18.4 cents on gasoline and 24.4 cents on diesel. Ohio cannot suspend that. Anyone who watches the sign and wonders why the whole tax did not vanish should look at the federal line before they blame the station. [7]
This is also why a diesel truck crossing Ohio this fall should fuel here if the route allows it. As of July 1, 2026, Kentucky’s total state gasoline tax was 26.4 cents a gallon. Indiana’s was in the 50-to-60-cent range, depending on which fees are counted. Michigan was in the same high band. For these 90 days Ohio’s state rate is a tenth of a mil. A truck that used to skip Ohio for a cheaper state has the math backward until January 2. [8]
Why the money was there
The $725 million is not a raid on the highway fund, and it is not a withdrawal from the Budget Stabilization Fund. Senate President Rob McColley said the state had enough to cover the holiday and still keep road and bridge work on schedule. Timken said the same thing in plainer words: conservative fiscal policy is what made the relief possible without touching the Rainy Day Fund or the Ohio Department of Transportation budget. The September report from the Office of Budget and Management projected a General Revenue Fund surplus of about $745.4 million at the end of the fiscal year. The holiday fits inside that surplus, with a little room left over. [2] [5] [9]
That is the part the critics do not like to say out loud. A surplus is not a mood. It is what is left after you refuse to spend every dollar that comes in. Ohio has had Republican majorities in the House and the Senate for a long time. The counties that stay in the black tend to be the counties run the same way. Where Democrats run the budget, the pattern I have watched for years is the opposite: spend past the line, then come back for a tax increase to cover the miss. David Pepper and the people who argue that Republicans have been in too long never explain where the $725 million would have come from under their model. It would not have been there. You cannot suspend a tax out of a deficit. You can only do it when someone, for years, spent less than they took in.
Lang put the practical case on the record the day the Senate passed it. Every dollar a small business spends on fuel is a dollar it cannot put into employees, equipment, or growth. Diesel, he said, powers the trucks, the farm equipment, and the construction equipment. Suspending the tax is breathing room, not a theory. [4] That is the right argument. A fuel tax is a tax on getting to work, on moving freight, and on a farm that has to run whether or not Columbus is in session.
Prices, excuses, and the point of doing it now
I have said all summer that the price at the pump should have come down in 2026, and a lot of it did not. Refiners and distributors have been slow. The Iranian conflict has been a convenient fog. There is no settled government on the other end of that war that can answer for a barrel, and there are plenty of people, in markets and in media, who would rather keep the uncertainty going. A long, muddy conflict is useful to anyone who wants a wider margin and a Republican governor’s race that looks expensive at the pump. I am not going to pretend every cent of the 2026 price is a conspiracy. I am going to say the excuse has been used past the point of honesty, and that waiting on a perfect global price was a bad plan for a state that had a surplus in the bank.
Ohio could not fix the world oil market. It could take its own 38.5 cents off the gallon, and its own 47 cents off diesel, and order the stations to pass it through. That is the part of the price a state actually controls. Doing it in the first week of October, with an emergency clause, was the proactive move. Early voting was about to start. People are still paying the summer’s hangover. A legislature that waits for a calmer headline is a legislature that never spends the surplus on the people who created it.
The vote was bipartisan enough to get the emergency clause, which needs more than a simple majority. It was not a love letter from the other party. More than half the Democrats in each chamber voted no. [9] The ones who voted yes made the immediate effective date possible. The ones who voted no will explain, later, that the money should have been spent on something else. That is the argument. Their something else is always a larger government. The surplus is the evidence that Ohio did not need one.
What other states can copy
This is a model, not a stunt, and other states sitting on a real surplus should look at the mechanics instead of the press release.
First, suspend the tax. Do not invent a rebate card, a portal, or a six-month application. The relief has to show up on the receipt this week.
Second, backfill the road money from the general surplus. Do not cut the projects, and do not crack the rainy-day fund for a holiday. Ohio was explicit on both points. A tax holiday that steals from maintenance is just a pothole with a ribbon on it.
Third, leave a token rate in place if a zero rate would let a neighbor’s tax reach across the line. The tenth-of-a-mil was not cute. It was drafted for border counties.
Fourth, require the pass-through, and give the attorney general a hook if a station keeps the difference. A tax cut that dies in the wholesale markup is not a tax cut.
Fifth, do it with an emergency clause if the statute otherwise waits 90 days. A relief bill that takes effect after the pain is a press release.
The permanent version is a policy question, and it should be on the next governor’s desk. A 90-day window has ambiguity in it. Distributors and convenience stores have to reprice twice, and a driver cannot build a household budget on a holiday. The honest next step is to decide how much of this rate Ohio still needs once the books are open. Vivek Ramaswamy called for the pause the week before the vote. [10] I have already said he is the right direction for the job. This holiday is a hint of the governing style, not the whole platform: when there is a surplus, the default is to give it back, not to find a new program to absorb it. DeWine signed the bill quickly. The next governor can be the one who decides whether 38.5 cents needs to come back in full on January 3.
A tax only funds government. It does not improve it by being larger. Republicans in Ohio spent less than the alternative for long enough to have $725 million they could hand back without missing a road project. That is why a driver in Butler County, and a driver crossing the river from Kentucky, will see a cheaper gallon this fall. I am proud of the legislature for doing it when people needed it. If you are passing through Ohio before January 2, stop and fill the tank. The Statehouse already paid the difference.
Notes
[1] Gov. Mike DeWine signed House Bill 519 on October 1, 2026. The bill reduces the 38.5-cent gasoline tax and the 47-cent diesel tax to $0.0001 per gallon from 12:01 a.m. October 4, 2026, through 11:59 p.m. January 2, 2027. Estimated pump savings are about $725 million, roughly $5.78 on 15 gallons of gasoline and $7.70 on 20 gallons, and about $9.40 on 20 gallons of diesel. “DeWine signs 90-day Ohio gas and diesel tax suspension,” Your Ohio News, October 1, 2026.
[2] The chambers passed the emergency measure on September 30, 2026, 26–5 in the Senate and 78–16 in the House. The final bill appropriates $725 million from the General Revenue Fund and $250,000 to the Department of Taxation. A station-receipt mandate and its $1 million appropriation were removed. Danny Eldredge, “DeWine to sign bill suspending Ohio’s gas tax for 90 days,” The Blade, September 30, 2026.
[3] H.B. 519 was sponsored by Rep. Andrea White (R-Kettering). The gas-tax language came from S.B. 475, sponsored by Sens. Michele Reynolds (R-Canal Winchester) and Jane Timken (R-Canton), and was amended into H.B. 519 so the holiday could move faster. “Ohio’s gas tax holiday enacted into law,” Ohio Society of CPAs, October 2, 2026.
[4] Sen. George F. Lang (R-West Chester) announced Senate passage on September 30, 2026, including the small-business and diesel arguments, and noted that the token rate protects border counties from a neighbor’s tax. Highway work is covered by the fiscal-year surplus, not the Rainy Day Fund. “Lang Approves Gas Tax Suspension,” Ohio Senate, September 30, 2026.
[5] Sen. Jane Timken: relief was possible without the Rainy Day Fund or the ODOT budget. “Timken Approves Gas Tax Suspension,” Ohio Senate, September 30, 2026. See also Ohio Department of Taxation, “Ohio Department of Taxation Issues Guidance for 90-Day Motor Fuel Tax Holiday,” October 2, 2026. Retailers must pass the savings through; failure may be referred to the Attorney General. Guidance: https://tax.ohio.gov/motor-fuel-tax-holiday
[6] Ohio Department of Taxation, guidance released October 2, 2026, cited above. Tax Commissioner Patricia Harris urged retailers to adjust systems by midnight October 4.
[7] Federal excise tax remains 18.4 cents per gallon on gasoline and 24.4 cents on diesel. Nebraska Department of Transportation, “Total State Taxes on Motor Fuel,” rates effective July 1, 2026, citing the Energy Information Administration. The federal layer is not part of H.B. 519.
[8] Same table: Ohio 38.50 cents, Kentucky 26.40 cents, Indiana 64.50 cents total state taxes on gasoline as of July 1, 2026. During the holiday Ohio’s state rate is $0.0001.
[9] Office of Budget and Management, September 2026 report, General Revenue Fund surplus projected at $745.4 million at fiscal year-end, as cited by The Blade, September 28, 2026. Senate passage was 26–5; more than half the Democrats in each chamber voted no. “Ohio General Assembly Suspends State Gas Tax,” Ohio Senate, October 1, 2026. McColley: the surplus covers the holiday without delaying road and bridge work.
[10] The vote followed a call for the pause by Republican gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy the preceding week. Jake Zuckerman, “Gas tax in Ohio suspended for 90 days after politically charged Statehouse vote,” Signal Ohio, September 30, 2026.
Ohio General Assembly. House Bill 519 (136th General Assembly), sponsor Rep. Andrea White; Senate amendment incorporating Senate Bill 475, sponsors Sens. Michele Reynolds and Jane Timken. Passed September 30, 2026. Signed October 1, 2026.
Rich Hoffman is an author, political consultant, and strategic advisor based in Cincinnati, Ohio, and the creator of The Politics of Heaven—a unique framework that connects biblical theology, ancient history, and modern power structures to explain how moral alignment and spiritual forces shape global events. Blending real-world political experience with deep research into archaeology, UFO phenomena, and suppressed historical narratives, Hoffman offers compelling commentary on topics ranging from ancient civilizations and the Dead Sea Scrolls to modern populist movements, paranormal continuity, and leadership strategy in chaotic environments. As the author of The Gunfighter’s Guide to Business and the forthcoming Politics of Heaven, he brings a grounded yet provocative voice to media discussions, supported by firsthand experiences and a cross-disciplinary approach that bridges science, history, and theology. For interviews, speaking engagements, or expert analysis, visit richhoffmanbooks.com or contact directly via phone at 513-307-5815 or email at rhoffman@richhoffmanbooks.com. If you’ve seen the movie, Disclosure Day and want to talk about it and the implications of Presidnet Trump’s UAP disclosures, let me know and we can bring some color to your coverage. https://richhoffmanbooks.com/media-inquiries-broadcast-topics-and-contact-info/?frame-nonce=ad51e7ecba I do have a firsthand UFO encounter to discuss.Eldredge, Danny. “Ohio lawmakers introduce $726M gas tax holiday bill.” The Blade, September 28, 2026.
Your Ohio News. “DeWine signs 90-day Ohio gas and diesel tax suspension.” October 1, 2026.
Zuckerman, Jake. “Gas tax in Ohio suspended for 90 days after politically charged Statehouse vote.” Signal Ohio, September 30, 2026.
Nebraska Department of Transportation. “Total State Taxes on Motor Fuel.” Rates effective July 1, 2026. Source table: Energy Information Administration, federal excise noted at 18.4 cents gasoline and 24.4 cents diesel.
I like doing these kinds of talks. Positive stuff. The benefits of things. The proper role of government. When you vote people into government, you are not voting them in to manage your life. You are voting them in to manage something you need done at the local, state, and federal levels, and then to get out of the way so good minds can finish the work. I talk about that a lot, and I talk about my friend, State Senator George Lang, who I consider one of my very best friends, because he has spent a long time doing the unglamorous part of that job. Good things, done over a long period of time, eventually just happen. He does not always realize, in the moment, how far those things are going to travel. I will talk more about some of that in November. For now, I want to talk about a day in Oxford that caught me off guard in the best way.
We had an event at the College@Elm innovation center on September 21. I was there to talk about what I have been calling the dreams of Elm Street. I discussed the next generation of middle-mile work I am involved with through Volynt, the company I lead as COO, and the hybrid unmanned aircraft they call Vyper (with a Y), since Volynt also uses a Y. Volynt Aero sits at 20 S. Elm Street, Suite 117, Oxford, Ohio, inside that building, and I am very proud of the affiliation and of the people around it.[1] When I do these kinds of things, I invite people I know. I know quite a few political people. I looked into the audience, and there were some very important faces in it. I had invited George to come out and listen. I had no idea he was already part of the roots of the place.
Positive people, positive work
It is nice to be involved in positive things with positive people who mean to do good things. I had no idea when I first got involved with Volynt, and they brought me out to show me the facility and how deep the story of that building went. I was impressed with the building. I didn’t know the story of the Innovation Center on Elm Street. When I gave the talk, I made a play on words. Nightmare on Elm Street used to be the honest description of the building Volynt is in. It was dilapidated. People had considered tearing it down. Miami University President Gregory Crawford brought George Lang out, and Nancy Nix, and a bunch of other people, and said Let us save this building and make it an innovation center for young minds coming through Miami University, a place to get a launch in life. That is exactly what is happening. A partnership moved into the building. I came out there in a COO role with Volynt. We talked a little about the history of how they arrived there, and about the other tenants, in a building that sits right there on the campus square, right there on Elm Street.
I talked about the play on words. A nightmare on Elm Street becoming dreams on Elm Street, because innovation startups are dreams. They are people trying to bring about new thoughts and new ideas. I guess a lot of people knew that story already. I did not. I was talking to George, telling him to come out, and George was already coming. As I was giving the speech, I looked out, and of course Michael Ryan was there, who I believe is going to be the next Butler County commissioner, and he came and gave part of the speech with me. In the audience were people like Nancy Nix. And George was there. I am going to show you. I know George is going to do the work. I had no idea that when I said, “Come on out,” he already knew all about it. He knew about the innovation center. He was there when it was being born. Nancy and I were talking about it, and she had been invited to see it back when President Crawford pitched the idea of taking this building and turning it into an innovation hub for aspiring ideas at Miami University. I had no idea this was where it was going.
The building that almost got torn down
I saw George in the background as we were setting up to give our speech. He was filming a short presentation on the building’s history, which he hadn’t told me about. I had no idea it was happening. I just joined the Volynt role. I admired the building. I thought it was a good use of a structure that might otherwise have been lost. It is very close, in Oxford terms, to the Miami University Airport, the little airport down the road at 7101 Fairfield Road, identifier OXD, a 4,011-foot runway that Miami operates and that sits only a few miles from campus.[2] For a company building uncrewed aircraft, that proximity is not a small thing. It is all very well set up.
Here is the history, for those unfamiliar, because it is a good story and deserves to be talked up.
The building at 20 S. Elm Street was built in 1933. For 68 years it served as Miami University’s central food service facility, the unglamorous engine room that kept the campus fed.[3] After dining services moved to the Demske Culinary Support Center, the Elm Street building became swing space and general storage, then sat vacant. By the time people were seriously arguing about its future, it was a roughly 90-year-old, 39,000-square-foot brick building with a strong foundation and a failing prospect. Miami and the City of Oxford debated what to do with it. Selling it was on the table. Tearing it down was on the table. Leaving it as a forgotten building on South Elm was the path of least resistance.[4]
President Crawford did not take the path of least resistance. He had been in business before higher education. He had founded companies. He knew the difference between a press release and a building that works. Around 2017 and 2018, he began walking potential partners through the place and asking whether they could see what Elm Street might become.[5] By 2020, the university and the city had a plan: turn the vacant structure into a technology, entrepreneurship, and workforce hub. Preparations began in 2021. The renovation cost about $10.7 million, part of a larger public-private investment of $17.55 million from the State of Ohio, JobsOhio, Butler County, the City of Oxford, and private donors.[6] Miami alumni Lee Fisher, class of 1968, and Rosemary Fisher, class of 1969, provided the naming gift. In February 2023, the building opened as the Lee and Rosemary Fisher Innovation College@Elm.[7]
That is the part I did not know when I was admiring the brick.
George Lang, the incubator, and the long clock
George has said publicly that he used whatever political capital he had to get state dollars into the project so it could get started and get up and running. He has called College@Elm something very special and very unique. His line, the one that matches what I half-heard him filming in the background, is that it is the only incubator he knows of where you can go from concept to production under one roof: prototypes, marketing expertise, funding, the whole path an entrepreneur needs to find out whether an idea can succeed.[8] Advanced manufacturing was part of the original pitch. The Fischer Group was an early anchor concept, an “innovation extension” inside the same walls as Miami’s entrepreneurship training.[9] When I watched him in the background and later saw the clip surface on LinkedIn, because the algorithm knows I know him, he was not doing a campaign spot. He was telling the history of a building he had already helped stand up, eight or ten years before Volynt moved into Suite 117.
I have known George for about twenty years: very good times and some very hard times. You learn the character of a person that way. A good person is pretty stable whether the times are good or bad. I am sure things are going on in his life where people look at him from the outside and say, I wish I were him. Then you know the pressure of living. It can be hard. I am sure he would trade some of the blood pressure for an easier job. He has said as much, in the way friends say it. The goldfish feeder at Walmart might be a better life on some days, because you can enjoy things a little more and carry less pressure. He finds himself under a lot of pressure a lot of the time. I say that as a friend, someone I talk to pretty regularly. It is not always better on the other side of the glass. It is hard. But when you care about innovation, and business, and technology, and job growth, this is the work. That is why I am involved in it. Not because the title is comfortable. Because the output is real.
Nancy Nix has the same knack. She was in the audience on September 21. She has a way of seeing a good thing before it becomes important, and she has been that way for a long time, back through nearly sixteen years as Butler County Treasurer and into the Auditor’s office she was sworn into in February 2023.[10] She was invited out when Crawford was still pitching the building. She came. Michael Ryan has supported this kind of work well before the commissioner race, and he stood up and spoke with me that day. He won the Republican primary in May 2026 with about 72 percent of the vote, and he is on the November 3 ballot focused on economic development, job creation, and capital investment.[11] I think he is going to win. More to the point, he showed up.
What Volynt is actually doing there
Volynt Aero was formed in 2024 by people who have been developing uncrewed aircraft and eVTOL machines for years. The spelling is the point—Volynt, with a Y. The aircraft is the Vyper, also with a Y. They are always doing things a little differently, and I like that. The company builds hybrid-electric uncrewed aircraft aimed at cargo logistics, highly mobile power generation, and forward communications for defense and for disaster response- the work where you cannot always count on a runway, a fuel truck, or a pilot who can get there.[1] The address on the capability statement and on the federal registration is the same as the innovation center: 20 S. Elm Street, Suite 117, Oxford, Ohio 45056. They have taken Ohio Third Frontier and TVSF support and partnered with Miami University on powertrain work. That is the right use of a building like this. Not a plaque. A prototype.
I had no idea, the first time I walked the facility, that the roots of the innovation talk went back that far, or that George was part of it, or that Nancy Nix was part of it. A lot of things in government never mature. Maybe only five percent of them ever become anything good. This one has a chance to mature into something really good. It is exactly the kind of thing that all of these people hope their role in government can do: take good minds, imagination, goodwill, and blood, and help them mature into something productive. Government, used properly, does not dream for people. It keeps the road open so the people who do dream can get the work to market.
Dreams, not the extended nightmare
I have always enjoyed my time on college campuses. I have not been happy with the direction academia has taken, captured as so much of it has been by left-wing politics and by the pursuit of intelligence subordinated to social order. I still encourage what I see. Even if everybody on a campus is not pushing the limit the way I think they should, you still see a proportion of people who are. I stop by the little convenience store on the campus, and I get a Mello Yello. People joke about it. The three drinks I drink are Mello Yello, water, and milk. A lot of water, a lot of milk, and a lot of Mello Yello. Sugar is not good for you, but I don’t consume much else with a lot of sugar in it, so I am good with it. And when I am standing there, I see a lot of bright-eyed people walking around with backpacks, dreaming and hoping.
That is what I was talking about in the speech. The dreams of Elm Street, because we were on Elm Street, in the innovation center. You expect a company like Volynt, working there, to have a shot at evolving into a technological powerhouse. It all started with the dreams of people like the president of Miami University, and Senator Lang, and Nancy Nix. You can tell who your friends are. It depends on who shows up for these things. You invite them to come out, you look into the audience, and you see faces that are very familiar to you. Some of the things you are doing may not become important for five years, or ten. They still come.
George said it in his own way. The things you do today are the things that show up eight or nine years from now. A lot of the work he does, and a lot of the work the other people who came out to our event are doing, works on that clock. I appreciate everybody who came. Michael Ryan has been supportive before he was ever on a commissioner ballot. Nancy has always supported things well before they become important. She has a good eye. She was in the audience. She knows a good thing when she sees it.
The innovation center on Elm Street is there for a purpose. It is there to inspire the growth of human intellect, as academia was always meant to do. I was proud to be there, and proud to be a part of it, and proud to look into that audience and see those kinds of people. I appreciate having high-quality people like that in my life. I think all of us, working together, can make dreams come true for a lot of people who don’t even know they are dreaming yet. They are just living their lives and hoping for a dream to dream, instead of living inside an extended nightmare where intellect is no longer in charge of the human condition.
Innovation centers like the one on Elm Street are, I think, among the highest-order things a community can build anywhere in the world, because they are dedicated to aspiring intelligence that makes everybody else’s lives much better. George Lang has always been supportive of that. It was good to hear his story, and to hear it go back those eight or nine years. The things you do today will be the things people are standing inside of nine years from now. That is what good government looks like. A president of a university pushing. A senator putting political capital on a building that is still empty. An auditor who shows up early. A future commissioner who stands up and speaks. They help pave the way for dreams to become a reality instead of a nightmare.
Footnotes
[1] Volynt Aero, Inc. lists its primary address as 20 S. Elm Street, Suite 117, Oxford, Ohio 45056. Founded in 2024, the company develops hybrid-electric uncrewed eVTOL aircraft for cargo logistics, mobile power generation, and forward communications under the Vyper name, and has paired Ohio Third Frontier and TVSF support with Miami University powertrain work. See Volynt Aero capability statement, volynt.aero; federal entity record, CAGE 9X2Y4, UEI ZDFZRXS7EJY2; Volynt Aero LinkedIn company page.
[2] Miami University Airport (OXD), 7101 Fairfield Road, Oxford, Ohio 45056, is a public-use airport operated in connection with the university and has a 4,011-by-70-foot asphalt runway. Miami University, “OXD Airport in Oxford, Ohio,” miamioh.edu/oxd-airport.
[3] Miami University, “From Food Services to Innovation Hub: The Story of College@Elm,” College@Elm Impact Blog, 2025. The building was constructed in 1933 and served as the university’s central food service facility for 68 years before dining operations moved to the Demske Culinary Support Center.
[4] Halie Barger, “Forgotten building on South Elm Street to become space for innovation startups and a focus on the arts,” Oxford Observer, February 14, 2020. Miami and Oxford officials described a vacant former food-service building that had later been used for storage; sale and continued vacancy were both live options before the innovation-hub plan.
[5] Sean Scott reporting in the Oxford Free Press, “College@Elm aims to provide innovation hub for Southwest Ohio businesses,” drawing on Lee Fisher’s account that President Gregory Crawford approached potential partners around 2017–2018 and was “the big driving force” behind the project. Crawford has described walking partners through the building more than two years before the 2023 opening. Miami University News, “The Lee and Rosemary Fisher Innovation College@Elm celebrates grand opening,” February 2023.
[6] Miami University put the renovation at $10.7 million and total invested funding at $17.55 million from the State of Ohio, JobsOhio, Butler County, the City of Oxford, and private donors. Miami University News, February 4, 2021, “Miami and Oxford initiative to transform uptown into an entrepreneurial hub”; Miami University News, February 2023 grand-opening release. The Oxford Free Press separately noted a City of Oxford contribution of about $1.18 million toward renovations, plus parking-lot work. Figures vary by what is counted as renovation versus total public-private investment; both numbers are in the public record.
[7] Lee Fisher ’68 and Rosemary Fisher ’69 provided the naming gift. The Lee and Rosemary Fisher Innovation College@Elm held its grand opening in February 2023 at 20 S. Elm Street. Miami University News, February 2023.
[8] George Lang, quoted in the Oxford Free Press: “I was very proud to use whatever political capital I had to get some dollars at the state level to help get the program started and get it up and running.” And: “It’s the only place, literally the only incubator in Ohio, that I know of in the country, where you can go from concept to production all under one roof and have everything right there.” The Miami Student, March 2023, also noted Lang’s support through the funding process. The September 21, 2026 remarks I saw him filming are his own telling of that same history.
[9] Miami University News, February 4, 2021. The early plan named two anchor uses: Miami’s entrepreneurship training and incubator center, and the Fischer Group’s manufacturing “innovation extension.” Later tenants have included student and alums ventures such as Coarse Culture. The Miami Student, March 2023, reported a five-year hope, attached to the Fischer Group concept, of 52 jobs and just under $3 million in payroll.
[10] Butler County Auditor Nancy Nix was sworn in on February 13, 2023, after nearly 16 years as Butler County Treasurer, and was elected in November 2024 to the unexpired term. She holds a B.S. from Truman State University, an MBA from Miami University (2012), and a CPA license—Butler County Auditor, “Meet Nancy,” auditor.bcohio.gov.
[11] Michael V. Ryan, former Hamilton City Council member and vice-mayor, won the May 5, 2026 Republican primary for Butler County Commissioner with about 72 percent against incumbent Cindy Carpenter, and faces Democrat Mike Miller on the November 3, 2026 ballot. Journal-News, “Butler County commissioners race: Michael Ryan and Mike Miller up for open seat,” September 30, 2026. Ryan has campaigned on economic development, job creation, and capital investment.
Volynt Aero. Capability statement and company site. https://volynt.aero/ — address listed as 20 S. Elm Street, Suite 117, Oxford, Ohio 45056. Aircraft program styled Vyper.
Volynt Aero. LinkedIn company page, Oxford, Ohio. Notes Ohio TVSF grant and Miami University powertrain partnership.
Hoffman, Rich. Overmanwarrior essays and podcast, hoffmanbooks.com — including the September 21, 2026 College@Elm remarks and the George Lang clip referenced here.
Rich Hoffman is an author, political consultant, and strategic advisor based in Cincinnati, Ohio, and the creator of The Politics of Heaven—a unique framework that connects biblical theology, ancient history, and modern power structures to explain how moral alignment and spiritual forces shape global events. Blending real-world political experience with deep research into archaeology, UFO phenomena, and suppressed historical narratives, Hoffman offers compelling commentary on topics ranging from ancient civilizations and the Dead Sea Scrolls to modern populist movements, paranormal continuity, and leadership strategy in chaotic environments. As the author of The Gunfighter’s Guide to Business and the forthcoming Politics of Heaven, he brings a grounded yet provocative voice to media discussions, supported by firsthand experiences and a cross-disciplinary approach that bridges science, history, and theology. For interviews, speaking engagements, or expert analysis, visit richhoffmanbooks.com or contact directly via phone at 513-307-5815 or email at rhoffman@richhoffmanbooks.com. If you’ve seen the movie, Disclosure Day and want to talk about it and the implications of Presidnet Trump’s UAP disclosures, let me know and we can bring some color to your coverage. https://richhoffmanbooks.com/media-inquiries-broadcast-topics-and-contact-info/?frame-nonce=ad51e7ecba I do have a firsthand UFO encounter to discuss.
