Polling always has a lagging effect by several days once something momentous by a political candidate does something, and once the patterns are studied of the 2024 election cycle, it will be the third week of September that will be remembered as the week that President Trump sealed the deal. Kamala Harris had been showing better in the polling. Obviously, their strategy has been to keep her from talking so that she could adopt any MAGA position and sell peace and harmony as a party in hopes of hoodwinking enough low-information people into being suckered along to vote for her. And the Democrats and the globalist citizen network of Marxist radicals might get away with pushing her over the top on election day. But they seriously underestimated the intelligence of people and their desire to have a successful country. With all their efforts at manipulating to keep away from inquisitive journalists, Trump responded with a very defining week, closing the deal on what people can expect with his second term in office. Specifically, his town hall with Sarah Huckabee Sanders in Michigan was an all-access stroke of public relations genius that few people could have pulled off. Then, a few nights later, while Harris was trying to interview with Oprah, Trump stopped by Greg Gutfeld on Fox News, who is the hottest ticket in comedy these days and did an hour-long show-off script in what defined the 2024 election cycle. Trump was brilliant in talking to anybody about anything and being willing to do it as much as was required, and it threw cold water on the communists behind Harris. A media-driven strategy of propping up some loser like Kamala Harris wasn’t going to be able to compete with a guy as good as Trump with the media to beat him in public opinion. Trump is not the same old flat Republican that Democrats have dealt with in the past, and they had no way of overtaking him.
I’ve discussed polling, how Trump typically overperforms, and why. And with all that considered, Trump is virtually tied with Harris up to this point. But once this third week settled in, even the polling started to pull away from Harris. Keep in mind that the goal of most of the sources reporting polling needs the results to look close. They are in the business of selling advertising, and if it seems hopeless for the other candidates and the down ballots, then they will lose the valuable ad buys that they count on every election cycle to generate. I wouldn’t say that they purposely lie and mislead. Certainly, in some cases, they do, but the technique of acquiring polling data is the problem. To mislead, a pollster can knowingly sample several voters who are known Democrats over Republicans if they want to make the results juicier toward their favorable outcome. But in general, the issue isn’t statistically sampling as much as engagement, which is always hard to measure in any industry. Voter engagement is the key to this particular decade in voting, and Trump is great at inspiring people to participate in the voting process, which polling struggles to understand because they can really only call known voters. Not voters who are voting for the first time or switching parties and voting for someone else, like many Democrats, especially teamsters, are willing to do for Trump. So the cable news sites can try to talk up the horse race of politics so they can get ad buys, but the truth of the matter is that a more significant number of people are excited to vote for Trump than are excited to vote for Harris and she is unable to do anything about it.
A lot has changed since 2015, when Trump started running for president, especially on late-night television. The landscape has shifted significantly, with the late-night talk show hosts who were anti-Trump losing their market share as they turned people off. This shift has led to a change in people’s entertainment options, with many switching to other options, such as Greg Gutfeld, who has filled in the void left by the other late-night talk shows. The modern equivalents don’t have it and come across as network-driven YouTubers. They don’t have the same power as they all once did because the market has changed beyond technological innovations and access to it. If the old game of keep away was what worked in the past, then this new way of Trump defined the new approach; the new decentralization of communication has made all candidates more accessible. Many more people saw Trump on a night on Gutfeld than a traditional live broadcast, and the clips played from it resonated for weeks in one-minute to two-minute soundbites that were quickly passed around social media. The Harris campaign could not match this with a traditional keep-away game where political advisors send press releases, and the network stars would take it from there. Their approach to the 2024 campaign shows an arrogance and lack of knowledge of the true nature of media in the modern world.
Trump, as he did for network television on The Apprentice, does understand how to use these tools to his advantage, and in the rock, paper, scissors game of modern politics, he was able to beat the keep-away game with much more social engagement and was much better at doing it than anybody else in this decade long election cycle. If the Harris people were vast and in the business of micromanaging every aspect of her campaign, then Trump was headed in the opposite direction; he did what he wanted without a lot of campaign advisor manipulation. He could walk into a room and just dominate it with sheer charisma and fresh ideas shooting from the hip, and he could adapt to whatever was being said at spontaneous events. Kamala returned from her night with Oprah weaker, looking unprepared for the world even with all the cheerleading that Oprah has done for people over the years. She couldn’t even dunk the ball standing on a ladder. But Trump, going on Gutfeld, pulled down the whole basket with such a vicious dunk that the backboard shattered with the force of it all. And in the days after, a clear winner emerged: Trump. I’m sure he isn’t done; he didn’t come all this way and put forth so much effort to lose. He was always a closer in business and is proving himself to be a closer in politics. Ultimately, it’s up to the voters if you can have an honest election. So, a political person can only present their case; voters will decide who they want. But in the wake of all this, the third week of September 2024 will always be the week Trump won the election. He closed the deal on a long journey of political theater and showed the flaws in the traditional approach that the Harris people weren’t prepared for. And it was good to see for a change. Trump is the first candidate to run for the White House who is a true insider and representative of the people that America produces. And the Democrats had no answer and miscalculated horrendously, as they were always poised to do. They did not match the trajectory of history; instead, they tried to control it much to their detriment.
Rich Hoffman

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