DON’T PLAY LIKE YOU’RE LOSING: Football Weather, a Bible in the Hand, and the Two-Point Swing That Can Still Hold the House

This is free advice. Nobody sent a twenty-five-hundred-dollar-an-hour invoice. I have been talking to people who live close to the pointed end of Republican strategy—the White House orbit, the Hill, the donor class that still thinks a memo is a movement—and I am putting the same thing on paper that I have been saying out loud. I do not know their internals. I know the look of a team that has started managing a loss before the fourth quarter. I have a long track record of calling the weather before the radar does. Take it or leave it.

Two months is a long time in American politics and a short time in a football season. The generic ballot is ugly. The president’s numbers are not what they were on the night the balloons fell. A lot of very serious people have decided the House is already gone and the Senate is a grind. Fine. Serious people have been wrong before.[1] The map is still a map of close races. Close races move on turnout, weather, and whether your own side can stand to look at itself in the mirror. That last item is the one Speaker Johnson keeps failing.[2]

Mike Johnson Is Talking Like a Man Preparing the Concession Speech

Mike Johnson has not done a really good job of projecting the one thing a thin majority cannot live without: the appearance of wanting the ball. He says the right sentences. He told NOTUS he would not even think about minority leader because “we’re going to win.” He told Dallas this is a pivotal moment and that the next fifty-odd days decide the republic.[3] Then the body language arrives. The schedule shrinks. The House books a quick September exit. The speaker warns audiences what Democrats will do if they take the gavel—impeachment is “not even the big concern,” he says; they will go after the family, the donors, the cabinet. That is not a two-minute drill. That is a man describing the visitor’s locker room.[4]

I am not asking Johnson to lie about the polls, which I don’t think are that bad; the election of 2026 will be all about engagement. I am asking him to stop sounding like a chaplain at a wake. The country can smell managed decline. Voters who already lean your way will stay home if they think the people with the gavel have already donated the furniture. Democrats do not need a wave if Republicans supply the shrug.

Johnson is a devout man. That is supposed to be an asset. Lately it reads as apology. He has spent too many years on the hook, line, and sinker of the progressive contamination that treats public Christianity as a zoning violation. Separation of church and state, as the slogan is now used, is not Madison. It is a muzzle. If you want to know how stupid the muzzle is, skip the seminar and walk three blocks in Southwest Washington.

Remember the Stretch Between the Election and January 20

Everybody who was paying attention remembers that little corridor of time after the 2024 election and before the inauguration. People were happy. Trump went to the fights. He brought people around. He made the transition look like a court and a carnival at the same time—which, if you understand American energy, is the correct mixture. He brought Speaker Johnson into that weather. He brought Elon Musk into that weather. The country got to watch alignment instead of autopsy.[5]

That is the template. Not a new platform. Not another reconciliation draft that dies in a five-vote conference. Presence. Trump should pull Johnson into the open air again and keep him there until the speaker’s shoulders come down. Bring the candidates. Put an arm around the people he picked and let the picture do the work the talking points cannot. Ken Paxton is one. There are others. The point is not a photo-op for the already converted. The point is to tell a tight district that the president still thinks the race is live.

Elon Does Not Need to Pray on Camera. He Needs to Be in the Room.

I say Elon Musk should be around this because I have a significant position in SpaceX stock and I feel better about where the thing is headed than I did when I first said I was in for the IPO. I was enthusiastic then. I am more enthusiastic now. That is not a ticker-tape prayer. That is a judgment about build-out, launch cadence, orbital compute, and the simple fact that the country that cedes the high ground will not remain the country that writes the rules.[6]

Elon does not need to hang around Trump and do the praying circuit. Leave the altar to the people who mean it. What he needs to do is refuse the role the press has written for him: court jester, wrecking ball, or exile. The midterms will be run, in part, as a referendum on whether American industry is allowed to remain impolite. SpaceX is impolite. Good. Bring that heat into the same frame as the speaker and the president and let the contrast with the Democratic freeze-and-regulate coalition explain itself.

Fox Already Has Your People. Football Season Has Everybody Else.

Doing another hit on Fox & Friends is not a strategy. Those viewers are already in the boat. They will vote if the weather is decent and the church van shows up. What you do not have, automatically, is the man who works first shift, drinks a beer on Saturday, and thinks politics is a smell he would rather not bring into the house. That man still goes to football games.

It is football season. You may not have a string of UFC cards to tour, but you have stadiums. You have tailgates. You have jumbotrons and mayors who will still pose for a picture if the president of the United States walks the sideline. Arena speeches work because they look like a country that is still alive. Mega rallies work for the same reason. Take Johnson. Take the candidates. Shake hands. Kiss the babies. Let the vice president hang around and do the work vice presidents are for. Do it in October, when the leaves turn and people remember they have neighbors.

The professional class will call this optics. Optics is what you call it when you have forgotten that human beings decide with their eyes first and their position papers later. A president in a stadium on a Saturday afternoon is a statement that the administration is not hiding in the Residence reading tracking memos. A speaker who looks like he wants to be there is a statement that the majority is not a rental.

The McDonald’s Test, or What DC Actually Sounds Like Before 10 a.m.

If you want to know where America is, skip the think-tank breakfast and go to the McDonald’s on the corner just down from the federal cluster in Southwest. Everybody who films in this town knows the neighborhood I mean. You are close to the Air and Space Museum. The American Indian museum is in the same walk. Congressional offices, the old Health and Human Services pile, the Department of Education’s gravity well—the whole faded government face of the city sits in a few blocks. Two blocks south of that McDonald’s is the Museum of the Bible.[7]

My wife and I have a ritual when we are in Washington. We park in a garage there, at a spot next to the elevator shaft at the bottom where the car fits as if the architect had us in mind. Ten feet to the elevator. The elevator dumps into a lobby that looks like a financial office. Two rights and you are in that McDonald’s. It is awkward in the way elevators are awkward, so somebody always talks. I like your hat. Thank you. Where are you headed?

I have stood in those elevators and at those tables and listened. “I work at Education.” “I am heading to one of the Smithsonian buildings.” “Congressional office.” The voice is flat. It is a job voice. Then, in a car of seven people, somebody says they are going to the Museum of the Bible, and the register changes. There is a little pop. You can see it. Not piety as performance. Pleasure. Anticipation. The same city that teaches its workforce to speak in acronyms still produces a human sound when the subject is Scripture.

I could have gone anywhere I wanted for my birthday in April. I told my wife I wanted a full day at the Museum of the Bible. We did the other DC things. I kept one day just for that museum. Sausage muffin, egg, orange juice or a Coke, about nine o’clock. The museum opens around ten. Then six or seven hours inside a building that does not apologize for the book that made the country possible. That joy is not a private hobby. It is a political fact. I sat there and watched people the way I watch shop floors and precincts. The ones walking toward the Bible were the ones who still had a pulse. The ones walking toward another government building looked like they were reporting for a sentence.

If You Cannot Unite Them on a Bill, Unite Them on a Book

I have been carrying a new Jonathan Edwards Study Bible and I am extremely pleased with it. I have been going through it like a man who has been waiting for a tool. Edwards understood something the modern party consultant has forgotten: joy is not the opposite of seriousness. Joy is the fuel. “The enjoyment of God,” he wrote, is the only happiness with which the soul can be satisfied. You do not have to sign the Westminster Confession to feel the political implication. A movement that cannot speak with pleasure about the source of its own moral language will lose to a movement that at least knows how to yell.[8] [9]

Republicans in the professional class are reluctant to do this because they swallowed, whole, the idea that the Constitution requires the public square to be a chapel with the crosses pried off. That is lunacy. The system was built Christian in the only sense that matters for a republic: it assumed a created order, a fallen citizen, a law above the state, and a people who could be trusted with liberty because they feared something higher than a committee.[10]

I love the Bible as a historical narrative. Those are not two different objects. There is an entry point at every degree of scholarship. Some people will come for the archaeology. Some will come for the cadence of the King James that still sits in the American ear whether they attend or not. Some will come because their grandmother did. You do not need a uniformity of dogma to get a uniformity of attention. Attention is the scarce commodity of a midterm.

So carry the book. Do not only produce it for a swearing-in and then lock it in a drawer. Talk about it. Do a short press availability that is not a culture-war trap and not a sermon. “This is the family Bible. This is a wonderful place. The country still knows what this is.” That is enough. The people you need do not require a systematic theology from the podium. They require permission to stop being embarrassed.

A Quiet Hour at the Museum Before the Ropes Open

I would go further. President Trump should walk across town—it is not far—and take a private tour of the Museum of the Bible before it opens to the public. Eight o’clock. They would open the building for him. Secret Service can lock a place like that down so it would be very safe. The access points are manageable. He can be through the history floors and the room with the Bibles laid out, pictures taken, and gone by nine-thirty, with the public none the wiser until the photos land. Visit the history-of-the-book exhibit while he is there. Stand in the room where the book is treated as an object of civilization rather than a punch line.

Then say the simple sentence: I love this museum. People who visit Washington often tell you it is their favorite stop, and they say it with that same pop in the voice I hear in the elevator. Put the president’s name next to that feeling. It is not phony if he means even half of it. Reminding people where he stands costs an hour and a motorcade. The return is not a sudden forty-state revival. The return is permission, again, for the people who already suspected they were allowed to believe this to act like it on a Tuesday in November.

Do Not Play Not to Lose

I have been saying this all along. Republicans who would not get behind the hard instruments—the same-day rules, the full use of a trifecta, the refusal to pre-negotiate the next Democratic revenge tour—did it because they believed Democrats always take power back, and that the smart play is to stay presentable so the other side will not pack the courts or torch the furniture. That is how you lose on purpose and call it statesmanship.

Democrats do not play that game. They play to take the referee. When they are out of power they yell, they play the victim, and they hope Republicans do not show up. When the rules of mail and curing and late counting favor them, they use the rules. I am not writing a brief for lawlessness. I am writing a brief against the peculiar Republican talent for bringing a rulebook to a street fight and then congratulating themselves for the bruises.

Go out there and win. If you cannot find a tax provision everyone will bleed for, you can still find a book almost everyone in your coalition will recognize. That is not a substitute for wages and borders and energy. It is the thing that makes people bother to vote for the wages and the borders and the energy in the first place.

The AI Debate Is a Strategy, Not a Concern

While we are talking about midterms, look at what is being built on the other side of the board. Democrats are trying to play the whole AI game. A lot of the people who run the large AI shops spent years working against President Trump. They are also busy playing games with each other over who owns the future. The issue is hot inside the Republican coalition for a reason: it is designed to be hot. Steve Bannon is set to appear at the same Washington “pro-human” AI gathering as Bernie Sanders. Populist right and socialist left, holding the same fear by different handles.[11]

For them the unifying note is jobs, dignity, the machine that will replace the man. Those are real human questions. I am not sneering at a machinist who wonders what a model trained on his craft will do to his shop. I am saying the political use of that fear is older than the transformer architecture.

They Ran This Play on Nuclear. They Will Run It on Compute.

Nuclear was always good for a healthy industrial society. Dense energy is how a free people stay warm without kneeling to a cartel or a planning board. Democrats of the anti-human strain used Three Mile Island—and every movie and textbook that turned a contained accident into a morality play—to discourage the independence that comes with the atom. They crippled an industry to suppress the growth of a capitalist nation and called it safety.[12]

Ohioans of a certain age do not need the lecture. We watched the same shot fired at FirstEnergy’s nuclear plants. Regulation and politics helped run a generation business onto the rocks. The subsidiary goes looking for a way to stay alive. Suddenly the company is corrupt, the Republicans who touched the file are dirty, and the moral of the story is that atoms were the original sin. The plants were a balance-sheet problem wrapped in a morality play. The morality play won the news cycle. The electrons still had to come from somewhere.[13]

AI is the new reactor. The doomsday register is the same. Pause. Ban superintelligence. Global coordination. Keep the models on a leash held by the people who already lost the last three arguments about growth. Trace a good portion of that propaganda and you will not end in a Vermont lecture hall. You will end in a strategic environment where China does not want America to embrace the thing that multiplies American labor. Beijing does not need to invent our anxiety. It only needs us to treat our own dynamism as a war crime.[14]

Barack Obama’s network does not have to send a memo titled “Split the GOP with AI” for the effect to be the effect. Put Republicans on their heels. Make the party of builders argue with the party of builders about whether building is allowed. In a midterm year, when turnout is already soft, that argument is not a seminar. It is a suppression tactic.

Low-turnout midterms reward whoever gets their people to the room. The AI fight, framed as apocalypse, keeps the Republican coalition in a family argument while the other side votes. That is why the biblical narrative is not a side quest. It is the offset. The communist register around AI—man as raw material, the future as a planning problem, the soul as an outdated user interface—cannot survive contact with a public that still thinks a human being is a creature and not a dataset. You do not beat a materialist panic with a better white paper. You beat it by reminding people what they are.[15]

The Tight Races Are Tight for a Reason

I look at the board and I do not see a wipeout that has already happened. I see a House that is still a handful of seats and a Senate that can hold even if a chair or two gets wobbly. Texas is the advertisement. Ken Paxton and James Talarico have been inside the margin of error for months. Some surveys now have Talarico a couple of points up. That is not destiny. That is a couple of points.[16]

A couple of points is a stadium visit. A couple of points is a president who looks like he is having a good time standing next to the man he wants in the seat. A couple of points is church-going women who decided the race was about more than a generic ballot average. A couple of points is the difference between Johnson keeping a gavel and Johnson becoming a trivia question about the last Republican speaker before the investigations.[17]

Fox will cover the rallies. That is not the point. The point is the pictures that leak into the places Fox does not run the morning show: the parking lot, the Sunday potluck, the group chat of the parents who have not voted since 2024 because they assumed the grown-ups had it. High engagement is not a mystery cult. It is a function of whether people think their side is alive.

Two Months. Not a Miracle. A Decision.

I think the House is winnable. I think the Senate can hold. I think some of these close races are close enough that a little public relations in football weather would move them. I think you can swing two or three points of engagement—not by converting the faculty lounge, but by giving your own people a reason to stand in a line. Democrats cannot pull this particular lever. They can lecture. They can threaten. They can mail. They cannot make the Museum of the Bible crowd feel seen, because they have spent a generation telling that crowd to sit down.

Do not act like you are losing. Act like you have fifty days and a country that still knows a hymn when it hears one. Bring Johnson into the light until he stops narrating the minority. Bring Musk into the frame as the man who builds. Bring Paxton and the rest into the presidential weather. Carry the book. Walk the museum. Go to the games. Talk like the majority is a thing you intend to keep.

If you ever read The Gunfighter’s Guide to Business, you already know the rule I am applying. You do not win a gunfight by announcing your readiness to lose the street. You win it by being the man who came to keep the street. In the age of disclosure you must understand the politics of heaven. The earthly contest is downstream of what a people think a human being is for. The Bible is not a prop in that argument. It is the argument, bound in leather, still doing what it has always done when somebody is willing to carry it into the weather.[18]

That is the advice. I would like to see Republicans win. From my map, and from the neighborhood I actually walk when I am in that city, it is very winnable—if they will stop rehearsing the loss and go collect the joy that is already standing in line for a sausage muffin and a museum ticket.

Notes:

Scripture, Theology, and American Religion

The Holy Bible. New King James Version. The Jonathan Edwards Study Bible. Edited by Matthew Everhard. Nashville: Thomas Nelson, 2026.

Edwards, Jonathan. “Sinners in the Hands of an Angry God.” Enfield, Connecticut, July 8, 1741.

Edwards, Jonathan. A Treatise Concerning Religious Affections. 1746.

Edwards, Jonathan. The Works of Jonathan Edwards. New Haven: Yale University Press, various volumes.

Noll, Mark A. America’s God: From Jonathan Edwards to Abraham Lincoln. New York: Oxford University Press, 2002.

Marsden, George M. Jonathan Edwards: A Life. New Haven: Yale University Press, 2003.

Kidd, Thomas S. The Great Awakening: The Roots of Evangelical Christianity in Colonial America. New Haven: Yale University Press, 2007.

Heiser, Michael S. The Unseen Realm: Recovering the Supernatural World of the Bible. Bellingham, WA: Lexham Press, 2015.

Jefferson, Thomas. Letter to the Danbury Baptist Association. January 1, 1802.

Dreisbach, Daniel L. Thomas Jefferson and the Wall of Separation between Church and State. New York: NYU Press, 2002.

Museum of the Bible. “Plan Your Visit” and “Frequently Asked Questions for Press.” museumofthebible.org.

Politics, Congress, and the 2026 Midterms

RealClearPolling. “Latest Polls 2026, 2028.” Accessed September 14, 2026.

USPollingData. “US Polling Data 2026 — Midterms, Generic Ballot & Trump Approval.” Updated September 14, 2026.

Cornell, Fred. “US Senate Forecast September 2026.” fredcornell.com. Model run September 14, 2026.

Newsweek. “Democrats’ chances of flipping the Senate with 50 days to midterms—Polls.” September 14, 2026.

New York Times. “Senate Polls 2026: See the Latest Midterm Polls.” Updated September 10, 2026.

New York Times. “Promising Much to Many, Johnson Loses His Grip on the House.” July 1, 2026.

NOTUS. “Johnson’s Political Future May Hinge on Republicans Exceeding Midterm Expectations.” August 24, 2026.

Newsweek. “Mike Johnson Warns Impeachment Not ‘The Big Concern’ if Dems Win Midterms.” June 26, 2026.

CNN. “Johnson gambles on ambitious summer agenda as GOP anxiety rises ahead of midterms.” July 13, 2026.

Just the News. “Mike Johnson says 2026 marks a ‘pivotal moment’ in American history.” September 10, 2026.

Roll Call. “House plans quick September exit.” September 3, 2026.

Denver Gazette. “The 21 seats Mike Johnson says will decide the House majority.” September 2026.

NBC News / Meet the Press. Interview with Speaker Mike Johnson. September 13, 2026.

USA Today. “Talarico ahead of Paxton in Texas Senate race as older voters shift lead.” September 14, 2026.

The Hill. “James Talarico, Ken Paxton tied at 47 percent in Texas Senate race: Poll.” June 30, 2026.

Texas Politics Project / University of Texas. Statewide survey releases, spring–summer 2026.

NPR. “With 99 days until midterm elections, here’s where things stand.” July 27, 2026.

Campbell, Angus. “Surge and Decline: A Study of Electoral Change.” Public Opinion Quarterly 24, no. 3 (1960).

Artificial Intelligence, Energy, and Industrial Policy

New York Times. “From Bernie Sanders to Steve Bannon, Political Figures Sound Alarms on A.I.” September 14, 2026.

Axios. “Scoop: Coxon, Bernie and Bannon unite for ‘pro-human’ AI.” September 14, 2026.

Reuters. “US Senator Sanders and podcaster Bannon, longtime foes, to urge AI restrictions.” September 14, 2026.

The Hill. “Bernie Sanders and Steve Bannon join forces to advocate for AI regulation.” September 14, 2026.

Washington Examiner. “Sanders, Bannon, and former Anthropic staffer join forces in AI regulation push.” September 14, 2026.

Future of Life Institute. “The Pro-Human AI Declaration” and “Pro-Human Assembly” program notes. September 2026.

U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Historical accounts of the Three Mile Island Unit 2 accident, March 28, 1979.

Federal Register. Materials related to the Crane Clean Energy Center / former Three Mile Island Unit 1 restart docket. 2026.

Ferrise, Adam. “Ex-regulator: FirstEnergy nearly tanked credit as nuke plants drained finances.” Cleveland.com, February 4, 2026.

Utility Dive. “Ohio PUC orders FirstEnergy utilities to pay $250.7M over HB 6 bribery scandal.” November 20, 2025.

U.S. District Court, Southern District of Ohio. Civil filings summarizing FirstEnergy, House Bill 6, and the nuclear-plant bailout structure.

Reuters. “Musk’s SpaceX prices record $75 billion IPO at $135 a share.” June 11, 2026.

New York Times. “SpaceX Stock Rises in Largest IPO Ever.” June 12, 2026.

Wikipedia. “Initial public offering of SpaceX.” Accessed September 2026.

The Author’s Shelf and Related Works

Hoffman, Rich. The Gunfighter’s Guide to Business: A Skeleton Key to Western Civilization. Liberty Hill Publishing, 2021.

Hoffman, Rich. The Symposium of Justice. iUniverse, 2004.

Hoffman, Rich. Tail of the Dragon.

Hoffman, Rich. The Politics of Heaven. Forthcoming.

Hoffman, Rich. The Overmanwarrior (blog). overmanwarrior.wordpress.com and richhoffmanbooks.com.

Nietzsche, Friedrich. Thus Spoke Zarathustra. 1883–1885. For the Overman frame the author has long adapted, not baptized.

Farah, Dan, dir. The Age of Disclosure. Documentary, 2026.

Author’s note.

This essay is strategic commentary offered in a private and public voice I have used for years. It is not a paid consulting product, not an official statement of any campaign, and not investment advice. SpaceX is a publicly traded company as of June 2026; readers should treat every market sentence here as the opinion of a shareholder who has already shown his cards.

Footnotes

[1] Generic congressional ballot averages in mid-September 2026 have generally shown Democrats ahead by roughly five to eight points depending on the pollster. Rasmussen Reports, September 14, 2026, found Democrats 47 percent and Republicans 42 percent. CBS News, September 13, 2026, found Democrats 54 percent and Republicans 46 percent. Aggregators such as USPollingData placed the generic ballot near D+6.9 as of September 14, 2026.

[2] House and Senate seat counts as commonly reported in September 2026 put Republicans near 222–213 in the House and 53–47 in the Senate, meaning Democrats needed a modest net pickup for the House gavel and a larger four-seat swing for Senate control. See USPollingData, “US Polling Data 2026,” updated September 14, 2026; Newsweek, “Democrats’ chances of flipping the Senate with 50 days to midterms,” September 14, 2026.

[3] Speaker Mike Johnson has publicly insisted Republicans will keep the House. See NOTUS, “Johnson’s Political Future May Hinge on Republicans Exceeding Midterm Expectations,” August 24, 2026. The same coverage notes that Johnson’s future as speaker is widely understood to be tied to the majority. Separate reporting described caucus frustration and a sense of a thinning grip. New York Times, “Promising Much to Many, Johnson Loses His Grip on the House,” July 1, 2026.

[4] Johnson told a Dallas audience that the next fifty-three days would “determine the fate of the republic.” Just the News, September 10, 2026. He has also spoken of twenty-one toss-up seats as decisive. Denver Gazette / Colorado Politics, September 2026.

[5] On the transition period after the 2024 election and before the January 20, 2025 inauguration, the public record is thick with high-visibility events, cabinet theater, and the brief alignment of Trump, congressional Republicans, and Elon Musk around a governing project. The point here is political memory, not a claim that every meeting was a prayer circle.

[6] SpaceX priced its IPO at $135 a share on June 11, 2026, raising on the order of $75 billion and valuing the company near $1.77 trillion at pricing, with a first-day close that pushed the market capitalization higher. Reuters, “Musk’s SpaceX prices record $75 billion IPO at $135 a share,” June 11–12, 2026; New York Times, June 12, 2026. Subsequent trading was volatile. This essay’s enthusiasm is the author’s investment thesis and political judgment, not investment advice.

[7] Museum of the Bible, 400 Fourth Street SW, Washington, D.C., opened November 17, 2017, three blocks from the U.S. Capitol. Museum of the Bible, “Frequently Asked Questions for Press.” A McDonald’s sits a short walk from the museum—Yelp lists one about 0.08 miles away—on the southwest federal corridor near Federal Center SW Metro, the National Air and Space Museum, and the National Museum of the American Indian.

[8] The Jonathan Edwards Study Bible (NKJV), edited by Matthew Everhard and published by Thomas Nelson, was released in 2026. Thomas Nelson Bibles product page; Christianbook.com listing for NKJV The Jonathan Edwards Study Bible.

[9] Jonathan Edwards, “Sinners in the Hands of an Angry God” (1741) and the broader First Great Awakening are the American precedent for treating religious revival as a public, not merely private, event. Edwards’s own emphasis on joy in God is the stated editorial theme of the 2026 study Bible.

[10] On church and state, the relevant constitutional text is the First Amendment’s prohibition on an establishment of religion and its protection of the free exercise of religion. The modern slogan of a “wall of separation” is a later political gloss, most famously associated with Jefferson’s 1802 letter to the Danbury Baptists, not a phrase in the Constitution itself.

[11] The Future of Life Institute’s “Pro-Human Assembly” in Washington, announced for September 15, 2026, listed Senator Bernie Sanders and Steve Bannon among speakers, along with labor leaders and members of both parties. They were not scheduled to share a single stage. New York Times, September 14, 2026; Axios, September 14, 2026; Reuters, September 14, 2026.

[12] Three Mile Island Unit 2 suffered a partial meltdown on March 28, 1979. The accident produced no immediate deaths but became the central public symbol of anti-nuclear politics in the United States and helped freeze a generation of reactor construction. See NRC historical summaries of TMI-2.

[13] FirstEnergy’s Ohio nuclear plants, Davis-Besse and Perry, became the center of a financial and political crisis that included the bankruptcy of the generation subsidiary, House Bill 6, and later criminal and regulatory proceedings. Cleveland.com, February 4, 2026; Utility Dive, November 20, 2025; related federal court filings summarizing the HB 6 bailout structure.

[14] On AI industrial policy and Chinese competition, see the public record of export controls, semiconductor policy, and repeated U.S. government warnings that Beijing treats frontier compute as a strategic resource. The causal claim that every domestic “pause AI” campaign is a Chinese information operation is the author’s inference, not a documented indictment.

[15] Midterm electorates are typically older, more partisan, and lower-turnout than presidential electorates. The “surge and decline” literature from Angus Campbell onward remains the basic framework. Small shifts in evangelical and conservative Protestant turnout have been decisive in multiple close cycles since 2004.

[16] Recent Texas Senate polling has been tight. An AARP survey conducted August 30–September 1, 2026, and reported September 14, showed James Talarico at 48 percent and Ken Paxton at 44 percent among likely voters. Earlier NYT/Siena work in late June had them tied at 47 percent. USA Today, September 14, 2026; The Hill, June 30, 2026.

[17] President Trump’s job approval in mid-September 2026 varied by pollster, with several national surveys clustering in the high thirties to mid-forties approve and a clear plurality disapprove. Rasmussen, September 14, 2026: 45 approve / 54 disapprove. Morning Consult, same window: 42 / 56. CBS News, September 13: 39 / 61.

[18] Rich Hoffman, The Gunfighter’s Guide to Business: A Skeleton Key to Western Civilization (Liberty Hill Publishing, 2021). The forthcoming Politics of Heaven develops the same author’s argument that earthly power contests are unintelligible without the older grammar of heaven, will, and moral order.

Rich Hoffman

More about me

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About the Author: Rich Hoffman

Rich Hoffman is an author, political consultant, and strategic advisor based in Cincinnati, Ohio, and the creator of The Politics of Heaven—a unique framework that connects biblical theology, ancient history, and modern power structures to explain how moral alignment and spiritual forces shape global events. Blending real-world political experience with deep research into archaeology, UFO phenomena, and suppressed historical narratives, Hoffman offers compelling commentary on topics ranging from ancient civilizations and the Dead Sea Scrolls to modern populist movements, paranormal continuity, and leadership strategy in chaotic environments. As the author of The Gunfighter’s Guide to Business and the forthcoming Politics of Heaven, he brings a grounded yet provocative voice to media discussions, supported by firsthand experiences and a cross-disciplinary approach that bridges science, history, and theology. For interviews, speaking engagements, or expert analysis, visit richhoffmanbooks.com or contact directly via phone at 513-307-5815 or email at rhoffman@richhoffmanbooks.com. If you’ve seen the movie, Disclosure Day and want to talk about it and the implications of Presidnet Trump’s UAP disclosures, let me know and we can bring some color to your coverage. https://richhoffmanbooks.com/media-inquiries-broadcast-topics-and-contact-info/?frame-nonce=ad51e7ecba I do have a firsthand UFO encounter to discuss.

The Jonathan Edwards Study Bible: Why America’s First Pastoral Philosopher Still Holds the Foundation for Law and Order

These are my favorite kind of days. The best days. No matter how tough it is out there, no matter how rough the problems of life get, sometimes you just have a good day, and this is one of them. I had the grandkids all day. We have been running back and forth at Kings Island, parched in the heat, and we are going to finish the evening at the waterpark. In the middle of all that, a box arrived. I took a minute to sit down with it. I opened it the way I open every book that matters to me. I smelled the pages.

One of my greatest pleasures in life is the wisdom and context of history sitting in my hand. I love the Bible for that reason. I love having so much history in one place. I love study Bibles because they explore the thing you can actually build a civilization on. I have carried one of those Bibles everywhere for years. I will not retire it. I will still read large portions of it every day. But I was ready to add to it, and I was ready to give the old one a rest. The first few pages of the worn one have a crease I cannot get out. That crease has bothered me. The new one does not have wrinkled pages. It just came out of the box.

I saw the Jonathan Edwards Study Bible advertised in Biblical Archaeology Review in the late-summer, early-fall edition. I fell in love with the idea immediately. When I hear the name Jonathan Edwards, I think of the father of the founding fathers. Thomas Nelson released the edition on August 18, 2026, after years of work under general editor Dr. Matthew Everhard. I picked the brown Leathersoft with thumb indexes. I was close to the black genuine leather. I wanted brown. I wanted the indexes. I am a sucker for thumb indexes. That had been my only real gripe with the Bible I have carried for years. They made this one with them. Brilliant.

A Good Day Is Not an Accident

I have said it before and I will say it again: a good day is not the absence of problems. A good day is the presence of a standard that can survive the problems. The world is full of people pinballing off each other. They do not share a common point of reference. They argue government, law, family, and history as if those things were invented last Tuesday. They were not. The argument over what kind of government we are supposed to have was largely settled in the long runway from the 1740s through the 1770s. The First Great Awakening was not a side show. It was a Christian surge into the New World that formed the conscience of a people who would soon have to decide whether they were subjects or citizens.

I wanted something that would push my mind into the right frame for the complicated issues in front of us. Two years into President Trump’s second term, the question is no longer whether the old order can be broken. The question is what we build with the pieces. Biblical scholarship is a very good place to start. Not as decoration. As infrastructure.

Who Jonathan Edwards Actually Was

Jonathan Edwards was born October 5, 1703, and died March 22, 1758. He was a Congregationalist pastor, philosopher, and theologian, widely regarded as America’s most original philosophical theologian. He oversaw early revivals in Northampton, Massachusetts, in 1733–35. He preached “Sinners in the Hands of an Angry God” at Enfield, Connecticut, on July 8, 1741. That sermon is the one everybody remembers. It is not the whole man.

Edwards was not a mascot for rage. He was a man obsessed with joy in God. “The enjoyment of [God] is…the only happiness with which our souls can be satisfied.” That line sits on the new study Bible for a reason. His Religious Affections, his Resolutions, his Miscellanies, and his massive unpublished notebooks were an attempt to think with total seriousness about Scripture, beauty, virtue, and the public order. He became the third president of the College of New Jersey—Princeton—after the death of his son-in-law, Aaron Burr Sr. He served only weeks. He died after a smallpox inoculation. Short tenure. Long shadow.

Princeton was a child of the Great Awakening. When Harvard and Yale resisted the revivals, New Lights built new colleges. The first presidents of Princeton stood in that stream. John Witherspoon, later president of the same college, signed the Declaration of Independence. The line from Edwards to Witherspoon to the Revolutionary generation is not a slogan. It is institutional history.

Calvin Coolidge, speaking on the sesquicentennial of the Declaration, put it as plainly as any American president ever has: “No one can escape the conclusion that in the great outline of its principles the Declaration was the result of the religious teachings of the preceding period. The profound philosophy which Jonathan Edwards applied to theology… had aroused the thought and prepared the colonists for this great event.” I consider Calvin Coolidge to be one of America’s greatest presidents.

I call Edwards a founding father because America would not have the moral vocabulary it used to become America without men like him. Ben Franklin admired George Whitefield, the great itinerant of the same awakening. Thomas Jefferson, George Washington, and John Adams inherited a public that had already been trained to take sin, covenant, virtue, and judgment seriously. You do not get a Bill of Rights out of thin air. You get it from a people who already believed that law has a source above the king.

The Great Awakening Was a Political Event

People treat revival as private emotion. That is a modern mistake. The Awakening taught ordinary men and women that a regenerated beggar stood before God on the same ground as an unholy prince. In a hierarchical empire, that idea is dynamite. It does not automatically produce 1776. It does produce a population that can hear “all men are created equal” without laughing.

The Awakening also split churches, founded colleges, and trained a habit of examining authority rather than merely inheriting it. That habit can go wrong. It can become mere rebellion. Edwards himself was no enthusiast for unfettered liberty as an end in itself. He wanted ordered affections under God. That is exactly why he is useful now. A country that has spent years dissolving every standard needs the man who refused to separate joy from holiness and holiness from public life.

I have been telling people that the squabbles of the present require a basic foundation. Study of that foundation got settled, in outline, by the 1750s and was tested in the 1770s. If we will not return to it, we will keep inventing new religions of the self and calling them law.

What This Study Bible Actually Contains

The Jonathan Edwards Study Bible is an NKJV edition from Thomas Nelson: Comfort Print, red letter, center-column references, concordance, maps, translator notes, two-color printing. The distinctive load is Edwards himself. Study notes drawn from his work. Articles on doctrinal topics. Full-page essays on his theology, his life, his spiritual practices, and the First Great Awakening. His Resolutions. An introduction to his Miscellanies note-taking system, with space to build your own. The Yale Jonathan Edwards Center remains the great online companion. If you are doing real scholarship, you can move from the page in your hand to the archive.

I like that. I like any book that tries to achieve superior intellect. The Bible, at its most basic essence, is the attempt to put the human mind in contact with the source of order. A study Bible is not a substitute for the text. It is scaffolding. Edwards is unusually good scaffolding because he will not let you treat Scripture as therapy. God, in Edwards, is not a life coach. God is holy. God is beautiful. God is uncompromising. If we follow in those footsteps, the same seriousness can look ruthless to a soft age. That is not a reason to flatten God into niceness. That is a reason to think.

I looked at the maps, the color, the paper, the print, the way the notes sit on the page. I judge Bibles the way I judge tools. Binding, glue, opacity, ribbon, indexes, whether the thing will survive being carried. Thomas Nelson still backs many of these editions with a lifetime guarantee against manufacturing defects. Companies that talk that way are running a different business model than the disposable world. I respect that.

I almost bought the black leather. I bought the brown because I like brown and because this one has the thumb indexes. I will likely still read the old study Bible. I will not carry the creased one everywhere anymore. This one takes that job.

The Smell of a New Book Is Not Trivial

I take publishers seriously when they do their job. The best smell in the book world is still new-Bible smell: paper, ink, glue, cloth, leather. I told my wife, half joking and half not, that if she wants me to keep loving her forever she should find a perfume that smells like a new book. The grandkids laugh at me because I keep putting my face in the pages. Fine. Let them laugh. There are very few things in life better than a well-made book that is trying to make you smarter than you were yesterday.

My old Bible still smells good to me. It has been everywhere. Full-color pages, notes from good scholars, a companion through work I am proud of. It also has the wounds of use. That is honorable. It is also honest to say when a tool has earned a rest. I can straighten pages and put it on the shelf without pretending I have outgrown it. I have not. I have added a second pillar.

Law and Order Begins With a Book on the Desk

People have told me they like that I keep a Bible on the desk in my office. Everybody walking by can see it. I did the same thing when I served as foreman of a grand jury in Butler County. I was not trying to be ostentatious. I was stating the premise. We were there for order. We were swearing to tell the truth. The values that created this civilization are not shameful. You do not apologize for them. You do not mumble that every tradition is equal so that no tradition can judge anything.

I put the Bible on the desk and I swore people in. That book represented a common standard. We can disagree about a thousand things after that. We cannot pretend there is no standard.

When I look back on a long life—good family, good kids, good grandchildren, good work in business—I still say that those weeks as grand jury foreman were among the most rewarding things I have ever done. I wish I could do that job every day. They paid something like twenty-four dollars a day. The whole stint put maybe four hundred dollars in my pocket. I spent every dime of it on Ohio law books, the kind of volumes lawyers keep on their shelves. I needed to explain the law to the other people in the room. Twelve other citizens. Evidence. A vote. Whether a person goes further into the machine of the state. That is serious work. I loved it. For a few weeks I was, in a manner of speaking, the top cop in Butler County, and I treated the job that way.

I have been thinking about cases that break your heart and then break your confidence in a jury’s ability to follow the law. A mother walks away from the death of her own children and the process cannot arrive at the destination the facts required. I will not relitigate a verdict in this space. I will say what the experience taught me. Law is not a mood. Law is a discipline. If the people in the room do not share a moral language, the statutes become a maze. The Bible is not a statute book. It is the source of the moral language that made statute books possible in the West.

Jonathan Edwards belongs on that desk because he is part of the formula that formed the legal society of the early republic. The attempt in our time has been to undermine that formation completely. Our job is to keep the undermining from succeeding. One way to do that is to return to the starting point and read it again, slowly, with notes from a man who actually thought.

God Is Not a Conflict-Resolution Seminar

I need to be clear about something I said in the moment and will not sand down. God is not a slogan for “can’t we all just get along.” God, as Scripture presents Him, is often ruthless and uncompromising. If we claim to follow, we do not get to edit that into suburban kindness and call it discipleship. The intellectual task is to understand what holiness requires in public life without turning the church into a mob and without turning the state into a church.

Edwards is helpful there. He is a pastoral philosopher. He will not let affection float free of doctrine, and he will not let doctrine float free of the glory of God. That combination is what a movement needs after it wins elections. Winning is not the same as governing. Governing requires a metaphysics. If your metaphysics is “the self is sovereign,” you will get the last twenty years on repeat. If your metaphysics is that there is a law above the ruler and a Judge above the law, you have a chance.

I have been saying that we need a common point of reference. This Bible can be that for people who are even half willing. You do not have to become a professional Edwards scholar. You have to read, mark, compare, and refuse the cheap alternatives.

The Politics of Heaven in the Age of Disclosure

We are living in what I have been calling the age of disclosure. Hidden things are coming up. Political things, institutional things, spiritual things. If you do not understand the politics of heaven, you will misread the politics of earth. Heaven is not a fog of niceness. Heaven is a court. There is a throne. There is law. There is judgment. There is mercy that costs something. Edwards never forgot that. A great deal of modern religion did.

The founding generation argued about church and state. They did not argue that the state could invent morality out of committee. They assumed a created order. They assumed sin. They assumed that republics die when character dies. That is not nostalgia. That is the operating system.

I want my grandchildren to see a Bible on the desk and know what it means when I walk into a room. It means I stand for law and order, and that law and order have a foundation that did not begin in a press release. I am not closing my life. I am opening a new chapter with a better tool for the same fight.

Why I Am Telling You to Get This One

If you need a first serious study Bible, this is a strong candidate. If you already have one you love, as I do, this is the right second. The scholarship is serious. The production is handsome. The price is not insane. The leather edition runs more. I paid for the version I would actually use—the one I will thumb through in the car, on the desk, and at the table.

I would like to shut the rest of life off and only read it. I will read a lot of it. It will become the Bible I carry. There is plenty here to work with. I think it is a key to launching a new stretch of work in my own life, and I think it can serve the same purpose for anyone who is tired of arguing with no floor under the argument.

Go get it. Put it where people can see it. Swear to the truth. Then go do the hard parts—family, work, citizenship, the long patience of building a civilization instead of commenting on its collapse.

I took the kids back to the waterpark and we had a great day. While I waited on them I sat in a chair and read through this new Bible and it turned out to be one of the best days I have had in a while. I am going to smell the pages again many more times. There are very few things in life better than that. If you want the longer map of how I think about work, conflict, and Western order, read The Gunfighter’s Guide to Business. If you want the foundation under that map, start with Scripture and a guide who already walked the ground we keep pretending is new.

Notes

1. Thomas Nelson released The Jonathan Edwards Study Bible: Experience Abiding Joy in Christ (NKJV) on August 18, 2026, with Dr. Matthew Everhard as general editor. Editions include hardcover, brown Leathersoft (including thumb-indexed), and black genuine leather. See publisher listings and trade bibliographic records for ISBNs 9781400339532 (hardcover), 9781400339556 (brown Leathersoft, thumb indexed), and 9781400339600 (black genuine leather).

2. Edwards’s dates, Northampton revivals, the Enfield sermon of July 8, 1741, and his brief presidency of the College of New Jersey are standard in the biographical literature. See George M. Marsden, Jonathan Edwards: A Life (Yale University Press, 2003).

3. Edwards died after smallpox inoculation in March 1758, weeks into the Princeton presidency. Marsden and the Yale Jonathan Edwards Center treat the episode in detail.

4. Coolidge’s sesquicentennial remarks on Edwards and the Declaration are printed in Calvin Coolidge, The Price of Freedom: Speeches and Addresses. The quotation is discussed in Gordon Arnold, “Jonathan Edwards: Founding Father of American Political Thought,” The Imaginative Conservative, October 4, 2024.

5. On Princeton’s revivalist origins and the New Light college movement, see Thomas Breidenthal, “Princeton’s Revivalist Roots,” Princeton Alumni Weekly, June 21, 2019, and George M. Marsden’s work on evangelical higher education.

6. John Witherspoon, sixth president of the College of New Jersey, signed the Declaration of Independence and served in the Continental Congress. The Edwards–Burr–Witherspoon succession is a matter of college history, not metaphor.

7. George Whitefield’s relationship with Benjamin Franklin is documented in Franklin’s Autobiography and in the standard Whitefield biographies. Admiration is not the same as conversion; it is evidence of the Awakening’s public weight.

8. Edwards’s line on the enjoyment of God as the only satisfying happiness is used by Thomas Nelson as the editorial keynote of the 2026 study Bible.

9. The Yale Jonathan Edwards Center (edwards.yale.edu) hosts the Works of Jonathan Edwards and remains the primary digital archive corresponding to the print notes.

10. Thomas Nelson’s published lifetime guarantee covers manufacturing defects, not ordinary wear. See Thomas Nelson Bibles customer-service and Premier Collection guarantee pages.

11. The First Great Awakening’s role in colonial egalitarianism, church conflict, and revolutionary political culture is argued, with different emphases, by Alan Heimert, Religion and the American Mind (1966); Mark Noll, America’s God (2002); and Michael Novak’s essays on the “two wings” of the American eagle.

12. Butler County, Ohio, grand juries operate under Ohio law. Compensation for jurors has historically been modest; the figures given here are from my own service and recollection, not a claim about current statutory rates.

13. Biblical Archaeology Review is the flagship magazine of the Biblical Archaeology Society. I first noticed the Edwards Bible as a paid advertisement in a late-summer / early-fall issue.

14. Edwards owned enslaved people. That fact belongs in any honest account. It does not erase his intellectual role in American theology; it does forbid hagiography. See Marsden and the Yale Center’s documentary record.

Bibliography for Further Reading

Primary Edwards

• Edwards, Jonathan. A Faithful Narrative of the Surprising Work of God. 1737.

• Edwards, Jonathan. “Sinners in the Hands of an Angry God.” 1741.

• Edwards, Jonathan. A Treatise Concerning Religious Affections. 1746.

• Edwards, Jonathan. Freedom of the Will. 1754.

• Edwards, Jonathan. The Life of David Brainerd. 1749.

• Edwards, Jonathan. Ethical Writings. Works of Jonathan Edwards, vol. 8. Yale University Press.

• Edwards, Jonathan. The Miscellanies. Works of Jonathan Edwards, multiple volumes. Yale University Press.

• Edwards, Jonathan. Resolutions. Various editions; also included in the 2026 study Bible.

• The Works of Jonathan Edwards. 26 vols. Yale University Press. Digital companion: Jonathan Edwards Center at Yale University, https://edwards.yale.edu.

The 2026 Study Bible

• Everhard, Matthew, gen. ed. The Jonathan Edwards Study Bible: Experience Abiding Joy in Christ (NKJV). Thomas Nelson, 2026.

Biography and Intellectual History

• Marsden, George M. Jonathan Edwards: A Life. Yale University Press, 2003.

• McClymond, Michael J., and Gerald R. McDermott. The Theology of Jonathan Edwards. Oxford University Press, 2012.

• Murray, Iain H. Jonathan Edwards: A New Biography. Banner of Truth, 1987.

• Gura, Philip F. Jonathan Edwards: America’s Evangelical. Hill and Wang, 2005.

• Sweeney, Douglas A. Edwards the Exegete. Oxford University Press, 2016.

• Nichols, Stephen J. Jonathan Edwards: A Guided Tour of His Life and Thought. P&R, 2001.

Great Awakening, Princeton, and the Revolution

• Noll, Mark A. America’s God: From Jonathan Edwards to Abraham Lincoln. Oxford University Press, 2002.

• Heimert, Alan. Religion and the American Mind: From the Great Awakening to the Revolution. Harvard University Press, 1966.

• McDermott, Gerald R. One Holy and Happy Society: The Public Theology of Jonathan Edwards. Penn State University Press, 1992.

• Kidd, Thomas S. The Great Awakening: The Roots of Evangelical Christianity in Colonial America. Yale University Press, 2007.

• Marsden, George M. The Soul of the American University. Oxford University Press, 1994.

• Stohlman, Martha Lou Lemmon. John Witherspoon: Parson, Politician, Patriot. Westminster, 1976.

• Coolidge, Calvin. The Price of Freedom: Speeches and Addresses.

• Arnold, Gordon. “Jonathan Edwards: Founding Father of American Political Thought.” The Imaginative Conservative, October 4, 2024.

• Breidenthal, Thomas. “Princeton’s Revivalist Roots.” Princeton Alumni Weekly, June 21, 2019.

Scripture, Law, and Western Order

• Berman, Harold J. Law and Revolution: The Formation of the Western Legal Tradition. Harvard University Press, 1983.

• Witte, John, Jr. The Reformation of Rights. Cambridge University Press, 2007.

• Novak, Michael. On Two Wings: Humble Faith and Common Sense at the American Founding. Encounter, 2002.

• Blackstone, William. Commentaries on the Laws of England.

• The Declaration of Independence; the Constitution of the United States; the Bill of Rights.

Related Hoffman

• Hoffman, Rich. The Gunfighter’s Guide to Business.

• Hoffman, Rich. The Symposium of Justice.

• Hoffman, Rich. Tail of the Dragon.

• Hoffman, Rich. The Overmanwarrior, https://overmanwarrior.wordpress.com.

Periodicals and Tools• Biblical Archaeology Review. Biblical Archaeology

Rich Hoffman

More about me

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About the Author: Rich Hoffman

Why the 2026 Midterm Polls Are Still Misleading: Ohio, Texas, Wisconsin, and the Persistent Republican Non-Response Bias

I have been watching the midterm landscape closely in mid-August 2026. Three months out from Election Day, the polling averages in several key races look tighter than the underlying partisan lean of these states would suggest. Ohio’s governor’s race between Vivek Ramaswamy and Amy Acton sits near a toss-up. The special Senate election between Jon Husted and Sherrod Brown is competitive. In Texas, Ken Paxton and James Talarico are essentially deadlocked in recent surveys. Then came the Wisconsin Democratic primary, where the polls were off by roughly 20 points in the direction favoring the more progressive candidate.

I have said for a long time that a meaningful portion of the modern polling industry carries systematic bias against Republicans. Conservatives and Trump voters are less likely to pick up the phone or complete a survey. Pollsters still lean on models and samples that over-weight the people who do answer—disproportionately Democrats and people more inclined to engage with survey-takers. On top of that sits a commercial incentive: close races generate more advertising dollars. Campaigns with money to spend feel pressure to keep spending when the horse race looks competitive. Wisconsin just provided another public demonstration of how badly these models can fail when late undecideds and turnout dynamics break in one direction.

I do not think the actual underlying margins in Ohio or Texas are as tight as the published averages. I think several points in these surveys understate Republicans, and if the election were held today, the Republican candidates would win more comfortably than the current numbers imply. That is not complacency. It is pattern recognition from 2016 forward, reinforced by the Wisconsin result and by what I see on the ground and on platforms where people actually speak freely.

Wisconsin Democratic Primary 2026: The 20-Point Polling Collapse of Francesca Hong

The clearest recent data point is Wisconsin. Polls consistently showed Democratic Socialist State Representative Francesca Hong leading Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley by double digits—sometimes by around 20 points. One late survey had her at 44 percent to Crowley’s 22 percent. Another earlier reading put her near 38 percent with Crowley in single digits and a large undecided bloc.

On primary night Crowley won by less than half a percentage point. Hong received roughly the share the final polls had projected for her—around 39 percent. The entire error was on Crowley’s side. Late-deciding and previously undecided voters broke hard against the more radical option. Primaries are harder to model than generals because turnout is lower and more volatile, and Wisconsin’s open primary added another layer of uncertainty. Still, the scale of the miss is striking. The models captured the progressive candidate’s floor but completely missed the late surge to the more traditional Democrat.

I was not surprised. There is a recurring temptation inside media and polling circles to treat energized progressive or socialist factions as larger than they are. College campuses, activist networks, and highly engaged online progressive voters are easy to reach and happy to talk to pollsters. The broader primary electorate is less so. When the actual voters showed up, the socialist ceiling was exposed. The same pattern has appeared in other recent cycles, in which early surveys elevate a hard-left candidate and then the candidate underperforms once undecideds and lower-propensity voters enter the picture.

Current Ohio Governor Polls: Vivek Ramaswamy vs Amy Acton in Mid-August 2026

In Ohio, the governor’s race is officially an open seat. Aggregates in mid-August put Vivek Ramaswamy and former state health director Amy Acton essentially even, or with Ramaswamy ahead by less than a point. One recent weighted average had Ramaswamy at 47.0 percent and Acton at 46.2 percent. Individual surveys have bounced: some Democratic-leaning pollsters have shown Acton up two or three points; others have shown a tie or a small Republican edge.

Ohio is not a pure 50-50 state. Donald Trump carried it by roughly eleven points in 2024. The underlying Republican structural advantage has been visible for several cycles. A race this close in the averages, this far out, is therefore anomalous on its face. Acton’s association with COVID-era restrictions remains a live liability with a large share of the electorate that still remembers the lockdowns and school closures. Ramaswamy’s profile is national and polarizing, which creates some friction among independents and moderates, but the state’s recent presidential and statewide results do not suggest a natural environment for a Democratic win.

Ohio Senate Race Polling: Jon Husted vs Sherrod Brown

The special Senate election is similarly compressed. Jon Husted, appointed after JD Vance’s elevation, faces former Senator Sherrod Brown. Aggregates in early August showed Husted ahead by roughly two to three points in some trackers, while other windows had Brown with a small edge or a statistical tie. A New York Times/Siena survey had Husted at 50–47. An AARP-sponsored poll earlier in the summer had Brown up three. The race is competitive on paper.

Brown is a known quantity with residual personal brand strength among some working-class and older voters. Yet Ohio has continued moving right relative to the national environment. A race that looks this tight three months out again sits uncomfortably against the state’s recent performance. If nonresponse systematically suppresses Republican numbers, the published margins understate Husted’s true position.

Texas US Senate Polls 2026: Ken Paxton vs James Talarico Dead Heat

In Texas, the pattern repeats. The latest Emerson College survey (August 9–10) had Attorney General Ken Paxton at 47 percent and state Representative James Talarico at 46 percent among likely voters. Other recent polls have shown similar dead heats or small leads for either side.

Texas is not a purple state. Trump won it by roughly fourteen points in 2024. Paxton is a polarizing figure with a long history of legal and political battles, which creates openings for a skilled Democratic challenger. Talarico has run a disciplined campaign and benefits from the same non-response dynamics that compress Republican leads elsewhere. Still, a race this close in a state with Texas’s underlying Republican baseline is another data point that looks softer for the GOP than the fundamentals imply.

The Persistent Problem of Republican Non-Response Bias in Modern Polling

The common thread is non-response. I am on every list. Campaigns and pollsters call and text constantly. I rarely answer. I vote in every primary and every general election, but I do not have time for a fifteen-minute questionnaire from someone I do not know. Many people in my circle operate the same way. Conservatives, older voters, rural voters, and Trump-aligned voters have lower cooperation rates with traditional survey methods. Cell-phone-only households, caller-ID screening, and general distrust of institutions make the problem worse than it was in the landline era.

Democrats and more progressive voters, by contrast, remain relatively easy to reach and willing to engage. The result is a sample that is tilted before any weighting is applied. Pollsters attempt to correct with demographic targets, education weights, and recalled vote, but the corrections are imperfect. When the underlying population of interest—likely Republican voters—has systematically lower response rates, the adjusted numbers still lag. This is not a new observation. It has been discussed after 2016, 2020, and 2022. Wisconsin’s primary is simply the latest high-profile reminder that the models can still break when late movement occurs among the harder-to-reach.

Media and Pollster Incentives to Keep Races Looking Close

There is also a commercial layer. Close races sell. Media companies and the consultants who live off campaign advertising benefit when the horse race stays competitive. Republican candidates and committees have raised substantial sums. Those dollars flow more readily when the published polls suggest the outcome is in doubt. A seven- or eight-point underlying Republican advantage, when published as a two-point race, generates more television, digital, and direct-mail spending than a blowout narrative would. I am not claiming a grand conspiracy in every survey. I am saying the incentive structure rewards the appearance of competitiveness, and the sampling problems make that appearance easier to produce.

Why Platforms Like X Offer a Clearer Picture Than Traditional Surveys

This is where platforms that still allow relatively unfiltered speech become useful. People say things online under their own names or consistent pseudonyms that they will not say to a stranger on the phone. Sentiment on X, when read carefully and at scale, has often been a better leading indicator of Republican energy than the published telephone and online panel averages. AI systems that can process large volumes of public posts provide another check on the traditional samples. They are not perfect—online populations are not identical to the electorate—but they are less constrained by the cooperation-rate problem that plagues live interviewers and many opt-in panels.

What a Real Election Day Would Show Right Now in These States

If the election were held in the middle of August 2026, I believe the Republican candidates in these races would win by larger margins than the current averages indicate—closer to the seven- or eight-point range in Ohio and a clearer, more comfortable win for Paxton in Texas. That is not a prediction locked in stone for November. Turnout, national mood, candidate performance, and late events still matter. Campaigns cannot rest on structural advantages. But the idea that these races are true toss-ups or that Texas is on the verge of flipping requires accepting that the polling error has suddenly vanished. Wisconsin suggests it has not.

Election Night Dynamics in Ohio: Urban Early Returns vs Rural Reality

Ohio’s geography still shapes how results appear on election night. Early returns from the Columbus area and other urban centers can create a temporary Democratic lead. As the suburban and rural counties between the cities report, the numbers swing back. That pattern has been consistent. Watching the first 15 or 30 minutes of returns without understanding the sequence can cause unnecessary panic. The same logic applies to interpreting summer polls that over-sample the easier-to-reach urban and college populations. And if surveys do not account for this real estate trend, their outlook will not be accurate. If rural people don’t respond to the poll, they won’t be counted.

I have been around these fights long enough to recognize the difference between a genuine shift in the electorate and a measurement problem. The Wisconsin primary was a measurement problem with real consequences for the models. The compressed margins in Ohio and Texas look like the same problem applied to general-election contests in states that have been moving toward Republicans. Non-response among the very voters who decide these races remains the central issue. Until the industry solves the cooperation-rate gap, or until alternative signals from freer platforms are weighted more heavily, the published numbers will continue to understate the Republican side. Plan accordingly.

Footnotes

1. Aggregated Ohio governor polling as of mid-August 2026 from Pollsmax and concurrent trackers showing Ramaswamy 47.0 / Acton 46.2 and recent individual surveys (NYT/Siena, Tulchin, AARP/Fabrizio, etc.).

2. Wisconsin primary result: David Crowley approximately 39.8 percent, Francesca Hong approximately 39.3 percent; pre-election surveys consistently showed Hong leads of 15–20+ points.

3. Ohio Senate aggregates and individual polls (Pollsmax, NYT/Siena, AARP, Beacon/Shaw) place the race within a few points either way.

4. Emerson College/Nexstar Texas Senate poll, August 9–10, 2026: Paxton 47, Talarico 46.

5. Discussion of non-response bias and primary modeling difficulties drawn from post-election analyses of the Wisconsin results and longer-standing literature on declining survey cooperation rates among conservatives.

6. 2024 presidential margins: Ohio approximately R+11, Texas approximately R+14, Wisconsin narrow Republican win.

Bibliography for Further Reading

• Pollsmax, RealClearPolitics, 270toWin, and Decision Desk HQ aggregate pages for 2026 Ohio governor, Ohio Senate special, and Texas Senate.

• Emerson College Polling releases on Texas, August 2026.

• Contemporary reporting and post-mortems on the Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary (Axios, New York Times, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, Marquette Law School Poll commentary).

• Historical analyses of non-response bias in U.S. political polling after the 2016, 2020, and 2022 cycles.

• Public statements and data releases from the campaigns of Vivek Ramaswamy, Jon Husted, Ken Paxton, Amy Acton, Sherrod Brown, and James Talarico.

• Academic and industry papers on declining telephone survey response rates and the challenges of weighting for partisan non-response.

The numbers will keep coming. Watch what the hard-to-reach voters actually do when the ballots are counted, not onlywhat the people who answer the phone say in August.

Rich Hoffman

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About the Author: Rich Hoffman

Addicted to Failure: Weaponized honesty

I’ve been getting a flood of emails lately that reveal something deeper than policy disagreements. A year into President Trump’s term, with real wins stacking up, some voices in and around the Republican Party are still finding ways to peel away, to justify holding back or even undermining success. Thomas Massie and Marjorie Taylor Greene have made headlines with talk of rebellion, redefining MAGA, pushing back against the party’s direction, and even floating ideas to reshape or even overthrow elements of it. I read these things and listen to the arguments, and my take is more psychological than purely political: some people are genuinely afraid of success. They sabotage it when it arrives. It’s a real phenomenon I’ve seen in life, in business, and now in politics.

You see it with lottery winners who blow through millions and end up broke. You see it with people who stay in debt, terrified of paying off the mortgage or buying a car outright because the stability scares them—they prefer the familiar depletion. There’s a subset of the Republican Party that seems wired the same way. They had the losing habit for so long that winning feels unnatural, even threatening. So they manufacture reasons to complain, to fracture, to hold onto the comfort of opposition. And one of the biggest excuses I see surfacing in these emails and public statements is Israel. “You’re an Israel lover,” they say. “Part of the military-industrial complex. Sellout.” As if supporting the Jewish state and its right to exist automatically disqualifies you from America First principles.

I love Israel. I say that plainly because I do. I’m obsessed with the contents of the Dead Sea Scrolls, those ancient manuscripts discovered in the caves near Qumran that have done so much to validate biblical texts. I love the figure of the Teacher of Righteousness described in them. I love the way those scrolls illuminate concepts of justice, righteousness, and resistance to corruption in the Second Temple period. For anyone wanting the scholarly background, the prevailing view among many experts is that the scrolls were likely produced by the Essenes, a Jewish sect that withdrew from mainstream society in protest against what they saw as corruption in the Temple priesthood.

The Essenes emerged during the turbulent Second Temple era, roughly the second century BCE onward, as one of several distinct Jewish groups navigating Hellenistic influence, Roman power, and internal religious strife. The major sects included the Pharisees, Sadducees, and Essenes. The Sadducees were largely aristocratic, tied to the Temple rituals and priestly elite, and often more willing to accommodate external powers. They emphasized the written Torah (primarily the first five books of Moses) and rejected ideas such as the resurrection and extensive oral traditions. The Pharisees, by contrast, had broader popular support, developed the Oral Law alongside the written Torah, believed in the resurrection and angels, and focused on practical piety and interpretation applicable to daily life. They are often seen as spiritual forebears of later rabbinic Judaism.

The Essenes stood apart, disgusted by the worldliness and compromises they perceived in Jerusalem. They formed ascetic, communal settlements—most famously at Qumran on the shores of the Dead Sea—devoted to strict purity, study, and preparation for what they believed was an impending divine intervention. They followed a different calendar, emphasized communal property, ritual baths, and a highly disciplined life. Many scholars link them directly to the production and hiding of the Dead Sea Scrolls.

Central to their story is the Teacher of Righteousness, a mysterious yet pivotal leader raised by God, according to texts such as the Damascus Document, to guide the community “in the way of His heart” after a period of groping in the wilderness. He was likely a Zadokite priest, part of the legitimate high priestly line, who clashed with the “Wicked Priest”—often interpreted as a corrupt Temple figure during the Hasmonean period, perhaps around the second century BCE. The Teacher interpreted the prophets, revealed hidden mysteries, and called for true righteousness in opposition to a compromised establishment. The scrolls portray him as persecuted yet authoritative, with the community seeing itself as the faithful remnant preserving pure worship amid apostasy.

This wasn’t some abstract theological debate. It was a rebellion against corruption in the name of righteousness. The Teacher of Righteousness and his followers challenged the Temple authorities who had strayed. There’s resonance here with John the Baptist and Jesus—figures who operated outside the official power structures, calling people to repentance, critiquing hypocrisy, and pointing toward a renewed covenant. Some scholars have even explored possible connections or parallels between Essene thought and early Christianity, though Jesus and John were independent voices who resonated with similar themes of justice and reform.

The Pharisees, in the Gospel accounts, often clashed with Jesus over matters of tradition, Sabbath observance, and authority. They plotted against him alongside other factions, fearing loss of influence. The kings of Israel—David, Solomon, and others—had failed magnificently over generations, mixing greatness with moral collapse, idolatry, and injustice. The experiment of ancient Israel under the Jewish faith offers profound lessons for every culture: the tension between covenant fidelity and human frailty, the danger of institutional corruption, and the recurring need for righteous reformers.

Supporting Israel today doesn’t mean endorsing every policy or every corrupt element within any community—Jewish or otherwise. It means recognizing the shared history, the biblical roots, the strategic reality in a dangerous region, and the value of a democratic ally that, despite flaws, stands as a bulwark against worse alternatives. The Jewish people have a layered story: chosen for a purpose, yet repeatedly falling short, producing prophets and reformers who called them back. The Essenes, the Teacher of Righteousness, the early Christian movement emerging from that soil—all reflect a pattern of internal critique and pursuit of higher righteousness.

When people today weaponize criticism of Israel as a blanket attack, I see echoes of older poisons. Adolf Hitler, in prison, absorbed ideas from The Protocols of the Elders of Zion, a fabricated antisemitic text circulated by anonymous authors to stoke conspiracy theories about Jewish global control. It influenced Nazi ideology profoundly, even though it was exposed as a forgery. Hitler treated it as revealing supposed “inner truths” about Jewish machinations. In modern times, figures like Nick Fuentes or even some late-arriving voices without deep grounding in Christian theology—people who achieved sudden success in their 50s, with money, platforms, and crowds hanging on their words—sometimes torpedo their own trajectories with similar rhetoric. Tucker Carlson has faced accusations in this vein. Success brings ego, visibility, and temptation to chase edgier applause or differentiate through controversy. Fear of fully embracing victory leads to self-sabotage.

I’ve paid an extraordinary cost for my positions—millions of dollars in opportunity, professional friction, the kind of price that comes from refusing to bend to prevailing narratives in business, politics, and culture. I’ve fought corruption my whole life, from local Ohio issues to national ones. I was in the Reform Party before the Tea Party, and now MAGA, because I can’t abide the rot in establishments—whether Pharisee-like insiders clinging to power or RINO Republicans protecting their perks. If the Essenes were around today, I’d probably feel at home with their disciplined stand against compromise. That’s why I’m a MAGA Republican: it’s a rebellion for righteousness, for imposing order on chaos, for winning without apology.

My wife and I have been married 38 years. You don’t sustain that by lying to each other about the hard truths. Honesty in partnership, in teams, in politics—it builds something real.

I’m shopping my new book, The Politics of Heaven, out there to agents and readers who might not share every viewpoint. That’s how you build coalitions—you don’t just preach to the choir. You engage, you offer an entry point, you show how ancient spiritual warfare, giants, demons, divine rebellion, and population agendas connect to today’s fights. Writing it required talking to people with different lenses, inviting them into a biblical treasure hunt through history. That’s the work of conversion, of moving votes and minds toward truth, sovereignty, and America First without the self-sabotage.

The Teacher of Righteousness fought the Wicked Priest not because Yahweh’s covenant was flawed, but because its stewards had corrupted it. Jesus and John the Baptist challenged the religious and political orders of their day for the same reason—to restore righteousness, end corrupt sacrifices, and reorient toward a genuine relationship with the divine. Christianity developed a moral framework based on conduct, not just ethnic or institutional identity. The Jewish sects of the era—Pharisees as the popular teachers and interpreters, Sadducees as the Temple elite, Essenes as the separatist purists—provide a rich context for understanding these dynamics. They weren’t monolithic. They debated, split, and influenced the trajectory that led to the preservation of scripture and the birth of movements that reshaped the world.

Studying the Dead Sea Scrolls aggressively reveals how these texts validate biblical history, illuminate the pursuit of justice, and warn against complacency. The scrolls weren’t just historical artifacts; they were a library of resistance, eschatological hope, and communal discipline preserved in the desert while empires rose and fell. Contemplating the Teacher of Righteousness—his insights into the prophets, his call to the faithful remnant—feels profoundly relevant. Societies thrive when they confront internal wickedness and pursue righteousness. They fail when fear of success or an addiction to complaint wins out.

Massie and Greene’s talk of redefining the party, overthrowing elements, or breaking away echoes historical patterns of factionalism. It’s happened before in movements that tasted power. But true MAGA, to me, is about winning and securing the wins—securing borders, economy, culture, alliances that make sense. Not perpetual opposition for its own sake. The emails I get reveal that fear: the discomfort with victory, the need to find a scapegoat like Israel to justify pulling back.

I’ve walked through local politics in Butler County, Ohio; grand jury service; aerospace executive challenges; cultural critiques from the 1970s-80s music shifts to today’s spiritual attacks on family. The pattern is consistent: forces that hate success, that prefer managed decline or chaos. My philosophy—Overman warrior, with the whip as a symbol of discipline and precision—rejects that. Impose will on circumstances. Build teams. Fight smart. Stay married, stay honest, stay armed if needed, stay rooted in biblical truth.

The Politics of Heaven dives deeper into these conspiracies of heaven, the giants, the rebellions, the lessons for our time. I share the manuscript with serious readers because ideas this big require conversation across lines. Not everyone agrees at first. That’s the point. You convert by engaging, not isolating.

People afraid of success will always find reasons—Israel, foreign policy, personality clashes—to torpedo momentum. But history, archaeology, and faith show another way. The Essenes preserved light in darkness. Reformers like the Teacher called out corruption. Jesus built on that foundation toward redemption. We can learn those lessons without hating the people or the land that birthed them. Support Israel as an ally and an idea while demanding righteousness everywhere, including our own house.

That’s my stance. It’s cost me, but it’s worth it. Success isn’t scary—it’s the goal. Winning isn’t the end of the fight; it’s the beginning of stewardship. The Republican Party, MAGA especially, should embrace that instead of f¹earing it. The scrolls and the scriptures validate the path of righteousness over endless grievance. Let’s choose victory.

Footnotes

1. On recent political commentary regarding Massie and Greene, see various news reports from 2025-2026.

2. For lottery winners and self-sabotage psychology, common observations in behavioral economics.

3. Dead Sea Scrolls discovery and significance: Biblical Archaeology Review archives and standard introductions.

4. Essenes and Qumran: Josephus, Jewish War 2.119-166; scholarly consensus in Vermes and others.

5. Teacher of Righteousness and Wicked Priest: Damascus Document (CD), Habakkuk Pesher (1QpHab); see Wikipedia summary and Rowley.

6. Jewish sects overview: Josephus, Antiquities and Jewish War.

7. Protocols of the Elders of Zion: Exposed forgery; see USHMM and Wikipedia.

8. Additional parallels and Second Temple context drawn from standard histories.

Bibliography

• Biblical Archaeology Review (various issues, especially on Dead Sea Scrolls).

• Flavius Josephus. The Jewish War and Jewish Antiquities.

• García Martínez, Florentino. The Dead Sea Scrolls Translated.

• Vermes, Geza. The Complete Dead Sea Scrolls in English.

• The Protocols of the Elders of Zion (as a documented forgery; primary analyses in Segel, Levy, etc.).

• Schiffman, Lawrence H. Works on Qumran and Second Temple Judaism.

• Eisenman, Robert (various theories on Teacher of Righteousness).

Rich Hoffman

More about me

Click Here to Protect Yourself with Second Call Defense https://www.secondcalldefense.org/?affiliate=20707

About the Author: Rich Hoffman

Rich Hoffman is an aerospace executive, political strategist, systems thinker, and independent researcher of ancient history, the paranormal, and the Dead Sea Scrolls tradition. His life in high‑stakes manufacturing, high‑level politics, and cross‑functional crisis management gives him a field‑tested understanding of power — both human and unseen.

He has advised candidates, executives, and public leaders, while conducting deep, hands‑on exploration of archaeological and supernatural hotspots across the world.

Hoffman writes with the credibility of a problem-solver, the curiosity of an archaeologist, and the courage of a frontline witness who has gone to very scary places and reported what lurked there. Hoffman has authored books including The Symposium of Justice, The Gunfighter’s Guide to Business, and Tail of the Dragon, often exploring themes of freedom, individual will, and societal structures through a lens influenced by philosophy (e.g., Nietzschean overman concepts) and current events

The Roots of Ohio’s Medicaid Fraud Scandal: Loose Policies, Political Appeasement, and Lessons from History

I sat down recently to reflect on the growing scandal surrounding Medicaid fraud in Ohio, particularly in home health care services. As someone who has followed state politics closely for years through my podcast and writings, I see this not as an isolated failure but as a predictable outcome of decisions made years ago. The whistleblowers who came forward, as detailed by investigative reporter Mehek Cooke in The Daily Signal, painted a troubling picture of systemic pressure to rubber-stamp approvals for services that many recipients didn’t medically need.¹ Providers faced aggressive demands, sometimes involving translators for individuals from Somali, Bhutanese, and Nepalese communities, with paperwork pushed through despite physical exams showing no qualification. When honest providers denied claims, they faced backlash. This is the kind of corruption that drains taxpayer dollars and erodes trust in government.

I remember when John Kasich first pushed Medicaid expansion in Ohio. As a Republican governor, he bypassed the legislature by seeking approval through a state board to access federal funds.² It was framed as compassion—helping the vulnerable, including those caring for elderly parents—but I always viewed it as a progressive maneuver to expand government dependency. Kasich, influenced by figures like Arnold Schwarzenegger, wanted to appeal to minority communities and moderate voters. He thought expanding access with loose standards would build political goodwill. Mike DeWine, as governor, continued in a similar vein, prioritizing outreach over strict oversight. I have long argued that such policies create vulnerabilities ripe for exploitation, and the current fraud cases prove my point.

The financial incentives are enormous. Ohio’s Medicaid reimbursement rates allow family members to bill up to $90,000 a year for “personal care” services for one recipient, doubling or tripling that with multiple family members or in-laws under one roof.³ Whistleblowers described individuals making substantial incomes while sitting at home, with minimal actual caregiving. Some appeared coached on what to say during evaluations. This isn’t helping the needy; it’s a pipeline for fraud that benefits political machines by creating dependent voter blocs. Democrats like David Pepper have tried to pin the entire mess on Republicans, associating it with Vivek Ramaswamy and the current administration. But I see it differently. This stems from the expansion era under Kasich and the loose standards that followed, which Democrats exploited while Republicans played defense to avoid being labeled insensitive.

I have spoken with people in Ohio politics who understand the dynamics. Republicans, including some RINOs, felt pressured to expand Medicaid to counter Democrat narratives and appeal to immigrant and minority groups. Open borders policies amplified the issue, flooding systems with new applicants. Whistleblowers reported fears of retaliation—even being “stoned to death” in their communities for speaking out—which highlights the cultural and political insulation around these fraud networks. When they approached the Attorney General’s office, they sought protection and grand jury testimony. Instead, they felt dismissed. I find this infuriating because protecting whistleblowers should be a priority for any administration claiming to fight waste.

This scandal connects to broader patterns I have observed. Government programs offering easy money invite abuse. Under COVID lockdowns, led by figures like Amy Acton, massive fraud occurred through relief programs. Now, similar vulnerabilities appear in home health care. Mehek Cooke brought these concerns to state officials months ago, only to see slow action. Independent reporting exposed what insiders tried to keep quiet. I respect those providers who refused to rubber-stamp false claims. They conducted real exams and stood by medical standards, even under pressure. That’s integrity we need more of in Ohio.

Shifting to the FirstEnergy scandal helps explain why Republicans sometimes get entangled. During the Obama era, regulatory pressures targeted traditional energy sources. The administration pushed aggressive EPA rules favoring renewables like wind and solar while burdening coal, natural gas, and nuclear plants with compliance costs.⁴ FirstEnergy’s nuclear plants at Perry and Davis-Besse faced financial strain from these policies, which subsidized competitors and imposed mandates that made baseload power uneconomical. The company sought help, leading to House Bill 6—a bailout that became mired in bribery involving Larry Householder and others.⁵ Republicans, trying to preserve jobs and reliable energy, got drawn into a Democrat-controlled narrative. Some ended up in legal trouble because courts and media framed it as corruption rather than survival against federal overreach.

I have always maintained that fighting on Democrat-chosen ground leads to trouble. Democrats create problems—open borders, expansive welfare, energy strangulation—then accuse opponents of the resulting scandals. Kasich bought into the idea that Republicans needed to “evolve” and appeal to new demographics with government spending. DeWine’s administration inherited some of that mindset, leading to hesitation on cracking down aggressively. David Yost, as Attorney General, has pursued fraud cases, but whistleblower complaints suggest earlier warnings went unheeded.⁶ This isn’t purely a Republican failure; it’s the cost of compromising with progressive policies.

Reflecting on my own experiences, I have seen how these schemes operate. Through my work and conversations, I hear from people frustrated by taxpayer-funded dependency. Families legitimately caring for loved ones deserve support, but fraudsters gaming the system for $90,000+ annually while watching TV undermine everything. I opposed Kasich’s presidential ambitions partly because of this expansionist approach. It set a precedent that Trump later challenged by focusing on merit, borders, and accountability. Vivek Ramaswamy represents that shift—promising swift fraud prosecutions and reforms to save billions.⁷ Under such leadership, I believe these pipelines would close quickly.

The psychology here mirrors what I discussed in past writings about rebellion and righteousness. Politicians manipulate compassion to justify loose policies, framing criticism as heartless. Yet true righteousness demands stewardship of public funds. Ancient lessons from archaeology, like those in my favorite Biblical Archaeology Review issues, show civilizations failing when corruption and appeasement erode fiscal and moral foundations. Ohio risks the same if we don’t reform.

David Pepper and Amy Acton have tried shifting blame, linking it to past Republican issues while ignoring their roles in expansive government. Acton’s COVID policies generated massive fraud through unchecked spending. Pepper uses it for campaign attacks. But I see the root in Democrat infrastructure: identity politics, open borders, and vote-buying via entitlements. Honest elections via measures like the SAVE Act would reduce the need for such appeasement. Without fraud-tolerant demographics secured by loose policies, politicians wouldn’t feel compelled to expand Medicaid for votes.

I have visited areas in central Ohio where these businesses cluster—buildings packed with dozens of home health entities billing millions.⁸ Many tie to immigrant communities encouraged by prior administrations. This isn’t organic care; it’s an industry built on incentives. Whistleblowers risked everything to expose it, fearing harassment. State responses that prioritize protecting the system over rooting out fraud send the wrong message. I support aggressive prosecutions, jail time, and recovered funds directed back to taxpayers.

Looking ahead, I remain hopeful. The Trump movement and MAGA-aligned leaders like Ramaswamy reject the old RINO playbook. Kasich is irrelevant now because voters saw through the compromises. DeWine must demonstrate stronger action against fraud to avoid similar fates. Republicans win by standing on justice, not playing nice at Democrat dinners. Don’t expand programs that invite abuse; enforce standards and secure elections.

Endnotes

¹ On the whistleblower allegations and systemic fraud: Mehek Cooke, “Ohio’s Medicaid Fraud Bombshell,” The Daily Signal, May 20, 2026.

² Kasich’s Medicaid expansion approach: Reports detail his use of a state controlling board to access federal funds without full legislative approval.

³ Financial incentives in home health care: Ohio Medicaid rates allowing high annual billing for personal care services.

⁴ Obama-era energy policies: EPA regulations pressuring traditional sources like nuclear while subsidizing renewables.

⁵ FirstEnergy HB 6 scandal: Details of bribery and bailout for nuclear plants amid regulatory strain.

⁶ Attorney General responses: References to Yost’s office handling of complaints and prior fraud prosecutions.

⁷ Ramaswamy’s reform proposals: Pledges to crack down on Medicaid waste and fraud.

⁸ Cluster of providers: Investigations revealing multiple companies in single buildings billing substantial Medicaid amounts.

Bibliography

• Cooke, Mehek. “Ohio’s Medicaid Fraud Bombshell: Whistleblowers Warned, Officials Ignored.” The Daily Signal, May 20, 2026.

• Hoffman, Rich. The Politics of Heaven.

• Ohio Attorney General Office reports on Medicaid Fraud Control Unit activities (various 2025-2026 releases).

• VanderKam, James, and Peter Flint. The Meaning of the Dead Sea Scrolls. HarperCollins, 2002. (For historical parallels on righteousness and corruption.)

• Reports on FirstEnergy bribery scandal, including SEC and DOJ documents.

• Kasich administration records on Medicaid expansion (2013-2015).

• Borum, Randy. “Psychology of Terrorism” and related studies on ideological manipulation (for broader context on political appeasement).

Rich Hoffman

More about me

Click Here to Protect Yourself with Second Call Defense https://www.secondcalldefense.org/?affiliate=20707

About the Author: Rich Hoffman

He has advised candidates, executives, and public leaders, while conducting deep, hands‑on exploration of archaeological and supernatural hotspots across the world.

Medicaid Expansion, Fraud, and the Political Realities Shaping Ohio and Minnesota

As I said, they would back in the early 2010s, Medicaid programs in states like Ohio and Minnesota have ballooned into systems riddled with waste, improper payments, and outright fraud. What began as an effort to help the vulnerable has too often become a mechanism for political gain, where loose eligibility standards and rubber-stamped approvals create opportunities for abuse. In Ohio, the story traces back to decisions made during Governor John Kasich’s tenure, a Republican who championed Medicaid expansion under the Affordable Care Act. Kasich bypassed a resistant legislature by using the Controlling Board to implement expansion in 2014, extending coverage to adults up to 138% of the federal poverty level. This move added hundreds of thousands to the rolls—nearly 770,000 Ohioans were covered through expansion by early 2025.

I recall the arguments at the time. Proponents, including Kasich, framed it as a fiscal and moral imperative: bring in federal dollars (90% federal match initially), reduce uncompensated care, and address the opioid crisis and mental health needs. Kasich often spoke passionately about it, vetoing attempts to freeze or limit the program. Yet, from my perspective, this progressive-leaning push within Republican circles reflected a broader temptation—to appeal to demographic groups, including minority communities and those in urban areas, by expanding access in ways that lowered barriers. Paperwork became easier, verifications looser, and home health services exploded. The intent may have been compassion, but the structure invited exploitation.

Fast forward, and the consequences are evident. In Ohio, whistleblowers and investigations have highlighted massive issues in home and community-based services (HCBS). Reports detail clusters of providers sharing addresses, billing for services to deceased individuals, and unqualified caregivers claiming high reimbursements. Ohio Auditor Keith Faber has cited error rates indicating hundreds of millions to billions in potential improper payments, with a significant concentration in areas such as Franklin County. Attorney General Dave Yost’s Medicaid Fraud Control Unit has been aggressive, securing hundreds of indictments and convictions since 2023, recovering tens of millions. Yet the scale feels overwhelming. Recent cases include providers accused of stealing hundreds of thousands through overbilling for home health care.

I believe this ties directly to the incentives created by expansion. When programs prioritize volume and ease of access over strict verification, fraud thrives. Claims of caregivers earning substantial incomes—tens of thousands annually—while providing minimal documented care have circulated, with recipients allegedly staying home, watching TV, and still qualifying for payments. This isn’t victimless; it diverts resources from those truly in need and burdens taxpayers. Minnesota offers a parallel cautionary tale. The state has seen explosive growth in certain Medicaid services, with billions in reimbursements for programs like autism services (EIDBI) and in-home supports. Federal charges have targeted schemes involving over $90 million in alleged fraud, including fake services and inflated billing. Estimates of total fraud in high-risk programs have run into the billions, with rapid spending increases from $2 billion to over $4 billion in recent years for targeted categories.

Both states expanded Medicaid aggressively, creating similar vulnerabilities. In Minnesota, lax oversight in areas serving immigrant and minority communities has been alleged, mirroring concerns in Ohio. Policies that make enrollment simple and payments generous without robust checks invite “fraud tourism” and organized schemes. I see a pattern: government money flows freely when the goal shifts from targeted aid to broad political appeal. Democrats have long pushed expansion as a cornerstone of social policy, but some Republicans, seeking to broaden their base or to appear compassionate, have gone along. Kasich’s approach exemplified this—positioning himself as a moderate willing to work with federal programs, even as critics warned of long-term dependency and abuse.

The political fallout in Ohio has been intense. David Pepper, a prominent Democrat and former party chair, has used these scandals to paint Republicans as corrupt, linking Medicaid issues to broader narratives of GOP mismanagement. Yet I argue this misses the root. Expansion itself, initiated under Kasich, set the stage with its loosened standards. Current Attorney General Dave Yost, a Republican, has pursued fraud vigorously, but whistleblowers report feeling pressure or inadequate protection when raising alarms about systemic complicity. The administration under Governor Mike DeWine has announced new prevention initiatives, but critics say it’s reactive.

This brings me to FirstEnergy. Pepper and others try to equate Medicaid problems with the HB6 scandal, where FirstEnergy funneled millions to influence legislation protecting nuclear plants. That was real corruption—bribery, racketeering convictions involving House Speaker Larry Householder and others. Republicans got entangled, partly because they faced pressure from Obama-era energy policies pushing renewables and threatening reliable power sources like coal, gas, and nuclear. I’ve long maintained that nuclear remains one of the best baseload options, clean and reliable, unlike intermittent wind and solar that require backups. FirstEnergy fought for survival amid regulatory attacks on traditional energy. While some Republicans played ball poorly and scandals erupted, it wasn’t the same as Medicaid fraud, which stems from entitlement design flaws rather than corporate bribery for market protection.

In my view, the deeper issue is vote-buying through dependency. Expanded Medicaid creates constituencies reliant on government checks—caregivers, providers, recipients—who may vote to protect the flow of benefits. This echoes progressive strategies to build electoral majorities through targeted benefits, particularly in minority communities. Republicans, fearing demographic shifts, sometimes compromised by supporting or failing to reform these programs. Kasich’s outreach, influenced by figures like Arnold Schwarzenegger, who advocated compassionate conservatism, fit this mold. Yet it backfired, eroding principles. Trump’s rise corrected course by rejecting RINO accommodations and demanding accountability.

Whistleblowers face retaliation—harassment, blocklisting, threats. This chilling exposure of rackets where providers bill for non-existent or minimal services. In both Ohio and Minnesota, concentrated fraud in urban zip codes suggests organized operations preying on lax rules. During COVID, massive relief spending amplified fraud nationwide, with billions lost to improper unemployment and aid claims. Similar dynamics play out in Medicaid: easy money attracts opportunists.

I support cracking down without dismantling aid for the genuinely needy. Stronger verification, data analytics, site visits, and clawbacks are essential. Ohio’s MFCU has excelled nationally in convictions. Vivek Ramaswamy, in his Ohio political efforts, has highlighted fraud as a priority, proposing simplifications and keeping more recoveries locally. This aligns with conservative governance: protect the vulnerable efficiently, punish abusers harshly.

Broader lessons emerge. Government shouldn’t be in the business of buying votes with other people’s money. Honest elections matter; without them, parties feel compelled to rig systems through entitlements. Democrats accuse Republicans of scandals, even as their policies enable systemic leakage. In Minnesota, despite prosecutions, spending surged. Ohio shows that Republican control doesn’t automatically fix it if foundational policies remain flawed.

Reflecting personally, I’ve seen how these issues affect real communities. Families struggle with rising taxes and costs while fraudsters profit. Power grids need defense against ideological attacks—renewables have limits; reliable energy underpins prosperity. Kasich’s era represented a detour; Trump-era populism refocused on America First principles, including fiscal discipline and anti-fraud measures. Driving RINOs from the party strengthens it. People like John Kasich, seduced by donor pressures or national media praise, led astray. True conservatism earns trust through results, not appeasement.

The path forward demands righteous indignation against fraud. Prosecute aggressively, reform eligibility, and audit relentlessly. Don’t expand programs prone to abuse. Learn from Minnesota’s billions in questionable payments and Ohio’s home health clusters.

Expanding on the history: Kasich’s 2013-2014 push came amid national debates following the Supreme Court’s optional expansion ruling. He argued it saved hospitals and helped the working poor. Critics, including many in his party, saw it as an embrace of Obamacare. Implementation eased enrollment, boosting participation but straining integrity. By 2025, studies debate costs versus benefits, with calls for “kill switches” met by warnings of coverage losses.

Fraud statistics paint a national picture, too. MFCUs recover billions annually, but convictions mostly focus on providers, not beneficiaries. Yet improper payment rates hover concerning. In Ohio, auditor findings suggest 15%+ error rates in samples, with massive extrapolation. Minnesota’s high-risk programs ballooned post-expansion-like policies. Connections by policy: both states prioritized access over controls, leading to parallel explosions in fraud in personal care and behavioral services.

David Pepper’s campaign rhetoric ties everything to GOP corruption, ignoring expansion origins. I see it as deflection. FirstEnergy was about energy survival in the face of federal overreach; Medicaid is an entitlement design failure. Republicans must own mistakes—like cozying to bad policies—but reject false equivalences. Cover-ups of whistleblowers damage trust more than admissions of error.

Ultimately, I advocate earning seats through results rather than buying them. Trump championed this shift. Strong leadership by figures who prioritize justice over complicity will prevail. Medicaid can serve its purpose without becoming a racket. Reform now prevents bigger crises. The age of accountability begins when we reject easy-money politics. Ironically, the solution to all this fraud is in election integrity. Republicans don’t have to worry about Democrats if you take away all the ways they cheat. Medicaid expansion wasn’t necessary for Ohio to remain relevant. Forcing Democrats to have an actual platform would have.

Footnotes (selected examples; full inline where applicable):

1. Kasich Medicaid expansion details from historical reports.

2. Ohio Auditor findings on improper payments.

3. Minnesota DOJ charges summaries.

4. Yost MFCU achievements.

5. FirstEnergy scandal timeline.

Bibliography (vast selection for further reading):

• Ohio Attorney General reports on MFCU activities.

• HHS-OIG Medicaid Fraud Control Units Annual Reports (2024-2025).

• Daily Wire and local investigations into Ohio home health fraud.

• Minnesota Star Tribune and DOJ press releases on fraud takedowns.

• Academic studies on Medicaid expansion impacts (e.g., Health Affairs, PubMed).

• Cleveland.com coverage of HB6/FirstEnergy.

• Auditor of State, Ohio, single audit reports.

• KFF and Georgetown CCF analyses on fraud vs. cuts debates.

• Additional sources: Commonwealth Fund, Ohio Capital Journal, MPR News.

Rich Hoffman

More about me

Click Here to Protect Yourself with Second Call Defense https://www.secondcalldefense.org/?affiliate=20707

About the Author: Rich Hoffman

He has advised candidates, executives, and public leaders, while conducting deep, hands‑on exploration of archaeological and supernatural hotspots across the world.

My friend with Dirty Shoes: Why America Thrives Through Its Wealth Builders and What Happens When Sudden Money Meets Human Nature

I have spent years observing the world around me in places like Middletown, Ohio, and reflecting on the stark differences between those who build lasting wealth and those who chase fleeting windfalls. The recent trip by President Trump to China, with a plane full of American billionaires, brought these observations into sharp focus for me. It was not just a diplomatic visit; it was a demonstration of economic strength, showcasing the very people who drive innovation, jobs, and growth. Critics on social media and in political circles often decry such figures, calling for higher taxes, wealth redistribution, and policies that would “take from the rich to give to us.” Yet, my experiences with friends, family, and neighbors who have won big at nearby casinos tell a different story—one of human nature, discipline, and the enduring value of creators over consumers.

Trump’s journey to Beijing included leaders like Elon Musk of Tesla, Jensen Huang of Nvidia, Tim Cook of Apple, and others whose combined influence represents trillions in market value and countless jobs. China rolled out the red carpet in ways it hadn’t for previous administrations, precisely because it understands its reliance on American enterprise. China is a paper tiger, but its growth model depends heavily on foreign investment, technology transfer, and access to markets that value efficiency and scale. With a population far larger than America’s roughly 330 million, China has pursued manufacturing and infrastructure on a massive scale—jobs many in the West avoid—but it still seeks the dynamism that billionaires bring. By bringing these executives on Air Force One, Trump signaled leverage: American policy shapes opportunities, and those who generate wealth are key to expanding economies on both sides.

This isn’t abstract theory. I know wealthy individuals personally, and their habits stand in contrast to stories I hear at the local casino. One friend, a multimillionaire in construction and development, always shows up with dirty shoes and calloused hands. He works the job sites himself and oversees projects that build condominiums in Florida, where snowbirds live comfortably for months each year, dining out nightly without worry. His wealth cascades: employees get steady pay, suppliers thrive, and retirees enjoy the fruits of his risk-taking. He doesn’t chase flashy displays; he reinvests to create more. This pattern repeats among true wealth creators. They treat money as a tool for expansion, not a ticket to indulgence.

Contrast this with lottery and casino winners I have known. Near my home, the slots and tables draw crowds hoping for that life-changing hit. Some walk away with $15,000, $25,000, or even $100,000 checks. The stories that follow are depressingly familiar. One acquaintance won around $100,000 from insurance collections tied to a payout and quit his second job immediately. Overtime vanished. Within two years, the money disappeared—spent on cars, parties, and “trophy” living. He was back asking for help, bouncing checks, and debating between groceries and bills very soon. Another hit $15,000 on slots one weekend, celebrated by drinking and playing more, then bought big TVs and turned his basement into a “man cave” costing tens of thousands. Months later, broke again, he returned to the casino chasing the next jackpot. These aren’t isolated cases. I have seen inheritance recipients or family windfall beneficiaries do the same: quit work, lounge in front of daytime TV, blow through savings on impulse buys, and end up worse off.

Statistics bear this out, adding sobering color. While the often-cited “70% of lottery winners go broke” figure has been debunked as originating from unverified claims at a 2001 symposium (the National Endowment for Financial Education later clarified it lacked research backing), more reliable data from the Certified Financial Planner Board of Standards indicates that nearly one-third of lottery winners eventually declare bankruptcy—higher than the general population. Many face this within 3-5 years. A MIT study on Florida lottery winners who were previously financially distressed found that winning only postponed bankruptcy rather than preventing it. Stories abound: Bud Post won $16.2 million in Pennsylvania in 1988 but was in debt within a year, hounded by family (including a murder-for-hire plot from his brother), and died nearly penniless on food stamps. Suzanne Mullins won $4.2 million in Virginia, yet lost it to loans and medical bills. Callie Rogers in the UK squandered her winnings on parties and surgery. The pattern is consumption without creation.

Why does this happen so frequently? Psychology offers insights. Sudden wealth often meets unprepared minds shaped by scarcity thinking or addictive patterns. Without the discipline forged through years of earning and risking, money flows out faster than it came in. Social pressures mount—friends and relatives appear with hands out. Status symbols beckon: Corvettes, luxury trips, home upgrades that balloon in cost. I have watched people prioritize PlayStation subscriptions over groceries or blow windfalls on fleeting pleasures because their personalities lean toward immediate gratification rather than delayed compounding. Behavioral economists note that windfall recipients frequently exhibit higher marginal propensity to consume on non-essentials, lacking the habits of those who built wealth incrementally.

Wealth creators operate differently. They exhibit traits such as future orientation, calculated risk-taking, and a focus on value generation. Elon Musk, for instance, pours resources into companies that push boundaries in electric vehicles, space, and AI—ventures that employ thousands and spawn entire ecosystems. CEOs, in general, create wealth for others: shareholders, employees, and communities. Studies on high-net-worth individuals show they often maintain hands-on involvement, reinvest heavily, and avoid lifestyle inflation that erodes capital. One analysis of affluent versus high-net-worth investors found the latter display confidence but channel it into ongoing projects rather than consumption. My multimillionaire friend with dirty shoes embodies this: he builds condos that house comfortable retirements, creates jobs that support families, and sustains businesses that keep local economies humming. Billionaires scale this principle globally.

This distinction matters profoundly for policy. Socialism’s appeal—confiscating from the rich to redistribute—ignores these realities. Taking from creators to give to those with “bankrupt personalities,” as I call the chronic consumers, doesn’t produce prosperity; it funds more consumption. Parasitic tendencies, where individuals rely on government transfers or windfalls without building, lead to dependency. Casinos illustrate the microcosm: big payouts followed by returns to low-wage jobs or pleas for help. Government as the ultimate casino—promising jackpots through entitlements—breeds similar outcomes on a societal scale. Democrats and figures like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez often rail against billionaires, but history shows societies thrive with more of them, not fewer. America’s edge lies in its ability to foster creators who expand the pie rather than fight over slices.

China’s economic story reinforces this. Since reforms in 1979, it has averaged nearly 10% annual GDP growth for decades, lifting hundreds of millions out of poverty through exports, investment, and manufacturing. Yet it remains hungry for American capital and know-how. Its model involves state direction, lower labor standards in some sectors, and a willingness to handle the “jobs we don’t want” in the U.S.—polluting industries, assembly lines, and resource extraction. With far more people, China can sustain volume, but innovation and high-value creation still draw from Western partnerships. Foreign direct investment (FDI) has been crucial; inflows reached highs amid global shifts. Trump’s delegation signaled that U.S. billionaires hold keys to further integration if terms favor American interests. China respects this leverage because its growth, while impressive, depends on external engines. U.S. GDP per capita remains far higher, reflecting productivity and the rule of law that reward creators.

We need more millionaires and billionaires, not envy-driven policies to hobble them. More CEOs mean more opportunities cascading downward. Taxing success punitively discourages the risk-taking that built the Tesla and Apple ecosystems and construction empires. Instead, celebrate the dirty-shoes ethic: hard work, reinvestment, hands-on leadership. My observations align with broader patterns—materialists focused on status often report lower long-term satisfaction, while builders find purpose in creation.

Expanding on the pitfalls of lotteries reveals deeper human frailties. Beyond bankruptcy stats, winners face family estrangement, depression, substance issues, and scams. One study noted neighbors of winners increase borrowing and bankruptcies due to social comparison—keeping up with sudden displays strains others. This “lottery curse” echoes in inheritances: sudden money without earned wisdom evaporates. In contrast, self-made wealth correlates with better management because it embeds lessons of scarcity, effort, and compounding.

Consider Florida’s snowbirds again. Many live in multimillion-dollar condos, dining lavishly on seemingly endless income without daily grinds. Who enables this? Developers like my friend, whose projects multiply value. Scaled up, billionaires do the same nationally and internationally. They generate tax revenue far exceeding most—Elon Musk reportedly pays enormous sums—while funding innovations that improve lives: cheaper energy, better tech, and medical advances. Criticizing them as “greedy” overlooks their role as job creators and engines of opportunity.

Critics pushing redistribution often overlook the destruction of incentives. If the government seizes wealth for “the people,” who becomes the new creator? Parasites—those unable or unwilling to manage resources—consume without replenishing. I have seen it locally: second-job quitters, inheritance squanderers, entitlement dependents. They form a constituency drawn to promises of free money, mirroring casino addicts chasing the next hit. America’s strength is its culture of aspiration, where anyone can climb by creating value. With only 300+ million people, we punch above our weight in GDP through productivity, not sheer numbers. Encouraging more creators expands this.

Trump’s visit to China highlighted mutual dependence. China outpaces in raw growth metrics at times due to demographics and policy, but America’s innovation ecosystem—fueled by risk-takers—remains the gold standard. Billionaires on that plane weren’t just passengers; they represented the market access and expertise China needs. Respect shown to Trump reflected recognition of this dynamic. Previous presidents lacked the same business acumen or the same leverage to display.

Personal reflection deepens my conviction. Knowing rich people who work relentlessly, rather than casino regulars cycling through highs and lows, convinces me that character and mindset trump circumstance. Wealthy individuals I admire avoid dumb spending; they buy assets that produce more. Consumers chase experiences or goods that depreciate instantly. This gap explains societal outcomes. Policies that reward consumption through redistribution erode the foundation that creators provide. We should aim for more dirty-shoes millionaires building empires, not vilify them. Lottery winners buying mansions only to lose them to upkeep, or facing lawsuits from sudden “friends,” underscore isolation. One winner built a bowling alley that drained funds. Another’s family demanded shares, leading to rifts. Meanwhile, self-made billionaires like Musk endure scrutiny but persist, creating Starlink, EVs, and reusable rockets that benefit humanity. The asymmetry is clear: creators endure for legacy; windfall recipients often implode due to a lack of preparation.

The Trump China trip with billionaires celebrated American dynamism. It showed why we need more such figures—CEOs, entrepreneurs, builders—who generate wealth that sustains societies. Lottery lessons warn against easy-money illusions. Human nature favors discipline and creation over consumption. Socialism’s confiscation appeals emotionally but fails practically by ignoring these truths. I advocate protecting and encouraging wealth creators; they make the world go around, enabling comfortable lives for millions. More billionaires mean more opportunity, innovation, and shared prosperity. America’s secret sauce is its producers. Cherish them, emulate their habits, and watch economies flourish.

Footnotes

1. Observations on local casino behaviors drawn from personal acquaintance over the years.

2. Data on bankruptcy rates from CFP Board and related studies.

3. Details on Trump’s delegation from public reports.

4. China’s economic reliance on FDI from the World Bank and trade analyses.

5. Psychological insights from consumer behavior research.

Bibliography

• Certified Financial Planner Board of Standards reports on lottery winners.

• MIT study on Florida lottery bankruptcy postponement.

• NEFE clarification on 70% statistic.

• CRS Report on China’s Economic Rise.

• Various Forbes, USA Today, and academic papers on wealth psychology and FDI.

• Public news on Trump’s China visit (PBS, Fox, etc.).

Rich Hoffman

More about me

Click Here to Protect Yourself with Second Call Defense https://www.secondcalldefense.org/?affiliate=20707

About the Author: Rich Hoffman

He has advised candidates, executives, and public leaders, while conducting deep, hands‑on exploration of archaeological and supernatural hotspots across the world.

The Torture of Tina Peters: Finally getting out of jail, what her story says about authority

I have long observed how power, when unchecked, resorts to the rack—not always the physical one of medieval dungeons, but the metaphorical equivalent that breaks spirits, careers, and truths until confessions align with institutional narratives. The recent case of Tina Peters, the former Mesa County Clerk in Colorado, stands as a stark modern exemplar of this ancient pattern. A seventy-year-old woman thrust into one of the most dangerous environments imaginable for someone of her age and background, she faced years of imprisonment not primarily for some violent crime, but for daring to question the machinery of an election and seeking to preserve evidence amid widespread suspicions of irregularities in 2020. Her eventual release, commuted by Governor Jared Polis under significant pressure from President Trump, came only after what many perceive as a coerced softening of her stance—a letter or statement that effectively extracted a measure of contrition to grease the wheels of her freedom.

This bothers me deeply, not merely as an isolated legal matter, but as a symptom of a deeper rot in how societies, whether monarchies of old or democratic republics today, enforce conformity. I have explored this in my writings, particularly in The Politics of Heaven, where an entire chapter delves into the wives of Henry VIII. Why devote so much space to Tudor England? Because it illustrates precisely what happens when authority feels threatened: it tortures, it extracts, it publicly humiliates until the victim recants or perishes. Anne Boleyn, Catherine Howard, and others navigated a court where one misstep, one perceived challenge to the king’s narrative of divine right and control, led to scaffolds and swords. Henry’s break with Rome and the Protestant stirrings required confessions of loyalty, often under duress, to maintain the facade of unified power. Collective belief—enforced by the state and church—sought to transform royal will into unassailable truth, much as today’s liberal establishments insist that sheer repetition and institutional pressure can transmute falsehoods into accepted realities.

Consider William Wallace, that Scottish patriot whose brutal end in 1305 remains etched in collective memory. Dragged through London streets, hanged until nearly dead, then disemboweled while alive, his entrails burned before him, and finally quartered—all while conscious for much of the ordeal. This was no mere punishment for rebellion; it was a spectacle designed to extract submission from a defiant soul and deter others. English authorities needed Wallace not just defeated, but broken in narrative: a traitor whose cause was illegitimate. His screams, if he uttered any, were meant to affirm the crown’s supremacy. I think often of this when reflecting on modern “punishments” that are less bloody but equally soul-crushing: financial ruin, social ostracism, professional blocklisting, or literal incarceration for those who challenge sacred cows like election outcomes or gender ideologies.

Peters’ ordeal mirrors these historical precedents with eerie precision. As Mesa County Clerk, she allowed access to voting equipment in 2021 during a period of intense scrutiny following the 2020 presidential election. Her intent, by all accounts from her perspective and supporters, was transparency and preservation of data that might reveal anomalies—chain-of-custody issues, unauthorized access, or software vulnerabilities. Critics, including the Colorado Secretary of State’s office, framed it as a breach that cost the county nearly a million dollars in new equipment and undermined trust. She was convicted on multiple counts, including attempts to influence public servants and official misconduct, receiving a nine-year sentence that many viewed as extraordinarily harsh for a first-time, non-violent offender.

What strikes me as particularly insidious is the environment she endured. At her age, placed in a facility where vulnerability invites predation, reports and her own expressed fears painted a picture of genuine physical danger. This was no country-club detention; it was a pressure cooker designed, intentionally or not, to break resolve. The demand for a statement upon commutation—softening her previous assertions about fraud—echoes the rack of old. Throughout history, authorities have preferred the illusion of voluntary confession. “I was wrong,” “I made a mistake,” “I apologize for questioning”—these words, extracted under the shadow of continued suffering, serve to validate the system’s narrative. It is the same dynamic seen in corporate America, where leverage (debt, HR complaints, performance reviews) forces employees to affirm policies they privately doubt: DEI mandates, vaccine requirements during COVID, or silence on biological realities in sports and spaces.

During the pandemic, we witnessed this on a mass scale. “Take the jab or lose your job.” “Believe the science as defined by us, or face exclusion.” Massive institutional pressure infused collective belief into contested propositions—efficacy claims, transmission narratives, origin stories—turning skepticism into heresy. Those who resisted often faced metaphorical drawing and quartering: lost livelihoods, family divisions, reputational destruction. Similarly, on transgender issues, the insistence that belief alone alters biological sex allows men in women’s sports or prisons, not through evidence, but through enforced social consensus. Dissenters risk cancellation, much as Peters risked (and endured) imprisonment for questioning election “integrity” as defined by those in power. This is not new; it is the eternal temptation of power to weaponize belief against observable reality.

I see parallels in the Protestant Reformation’s violent undercurrents, which I detailed extensively because they reveal how challenges to authority provoke the extraction of loyalty oaths. Henry VIII’s dissolution of monasteries and execution of dissenters required public affirmations of the new order. Thomas More, a man of principle, met the axe rather than falsely swear the Oath of Supremacy. Others, less steadfast, confessed under torture to save themselves, only to erode the moral fabric. The rack, the Tower, Smithfield burnings—these tools did not create truth; they manufactured compliance. In Peters’ case, the “confession” element, however subtle, serves the same purpose: it allows the system to claim vindication while quietly releasing the prisoner to avoid greater scandal or political cost. President Trump’s active role in the background—public calls, threats of federal repercussions—highlights how counter-pressure from the executive can sometimes check state-level overreach, but it does not erase the initial injustice.

Corporate culture today replicates this with chilling efficiency. Leveraged buyouts, activist investors, or HR departments place executives and employees “on the rack” through performance improvement plans, diversity audits, or public shaming until they affirm the prevailing orthodoxy. Whistleblowers on financial fraud, safety issues, or cultural excesses face the same extraction: settlements with nondisclosure agreements that function as forced recantations. Peter Navarro, Rudy Giuliani, Sidney Powell, and others entangled in post-2020 legal battles endured variants of this—legal warfare, contempt charges, financial depletion—aimed at softening narratives around election challenges. The goal remains consistent: to make the lie (or the contested claim) into truth by compelling public submission.

This dynamic produces a less ethical society. When truth becomes subordinate to power—whether royal, bureaucratic, corporate, or partisan—individuals learn to compromise. They choose livelihood over conviction, freedom over integrity. Over generations, this breeds cynicism, apathy, and a populace ripe for further manipulation. I have argued that America’s founding emphasized consent of the governed and individual rights precisely to counter such tyrannies. Yet here we are, six years on from 2020, with mounting questions about mail-in expansions, drop boxes, observer restrictions, and statistical anomalies that Peters and others sought to illuminate. Even if one disputes the scale of fraud sufficient to alter outcomes, the suppression of inquiry itself damages trust. Jailing a clerk for preserving data she was duty-bound to protect sends a chilling message: do not look too closely.

History offers abundant further examples. The Inquisition’s use of the strappado or water torture extracted recantations from heretics, reinforcing doctrinal “truth” through pain. Soviet show trials featured broken defendants confessing to absurd crimes against the state. Maoist struggle sessions in China humiliated intellectuals until they denounced their own thoughts. In each case, the powerful believed—or claimed to believe—that collective enforcement could reshape reality. Modern liberalism’s variant substitutes social media mobs, lawfare, and regulatory punishment for physical racks, but the intent persists: punish until compliance. Transgender ideology, climate catastrophism, or election sanctity become articles of faith, with heretics like Peters paying the price.

Her visibility exacerbated Peters’ situation. A grandmotherly figure thrust into the national spotlight as an “election denier,” she became a symbol. Supporters viewed her as a hero preserving constitutional integrity; detractors as a threat to democratic norms. The reality, as I see it, lies in the asymmetry: rules written to favor opacity (limited audits, proprietary software, partisan officials) create the very distrust they then punish. When a Secretary of State’s office allows or overlooks access issues while aggressively prosecuting those seeking sunlight, it reeks of selective enforcement. Her observer in the process, the turned-off cameras, the data images surfacing—these were not random malice but responses to perceived vulnerabilities.

The governor’s decision to commute, framing the sentence as “extremely unusual and lengthy” for nonviolent offenses, acknowledges some excess, yet the underlying convictions stand. Pressure from the highest levels, including funding threats, likely tipped the scales, preventing blood on hands if something dire befell Peters in custody. This pragmatic release does not restore her reputation fully or address the broader pattern. It reveals power’s calculus: extract enough submission to save face, then move on.

I reflect on these matters because they touch the American way: truth, justice, and the right to question without fear of ruin. A society that jails grandmothers for forensic curiosity while shielding institutional actors from scrutiny drifts toward the authoritarianism I chronicled in Tudor times. Free will erodes when choices reduce to “confess or suffer.” During COVID, countless professionals mouthed platitudes they doubted to retain mortgages and retirements. In boardrooms, executives greenlight policies they know are performative. In elections, officials certify amid doubts to avoid the Peters treatment. This produces hollow compliance, not genuine consent.

Expanding on Reformation violence: the executions under Mary I (“Bloody Mary”) and Elizabeth I show both Catholic and Protestant sides wielded the scaffold. Yet the principle endures—authority demands narrative control. Henry’s wives navigated lethal intrigue because succession and religion were intertwined with power. Challenge the king’s version, and you faced the block. Today, challenge the certified result or biological binary, and face analogous consequences, scaled to modernity.

Corporate buyout artists, as I noted, extract through economic racks: golden handcuffs, NDAs, and severance tied to silence. Employees sign away their right to speak the truth post-departure. This mirrors plea deals, where defendants admit guilt to receive lighter sentences, regardless of their inner convictions. Peters’ path appears to have involved such a bargain: statement for parole eligibility by June 2026.

Ultimately, this erodes the Republic. When collective belief supplants evidence—whether on fraud, gender, or public health—we sacrifice the Enlightenment foundations that gave birth to America. Peters was right to question; time and further audits have only amplified legitimate concerns about 2020 processes. Her punishment served to deter others, not illuminate the truth. The shame lies not in her actions, but in a system that prefers darkness and extracted confessions over open inquiry.

This pattern repeats because human nature craves control. Power fears exposure. From Wallace’s screams to Peters’ cell, the lesson is clear: resist the rack, preserve integrity, even at great cost. Only then does society inch toward genuine justice rather than enforced illusion. My observations over the years, across politics, culture, and history, convince me that without vigilance against such extractions, we trade freedom for comfortable lies. The age of disclosure demands that we reject this, honoring those like Peters who, against immense pressure, tried to uphold honest processes.

Footnotes

1. Details drawn from contemporary reporting on Peters’ commutation, May 2026.

2. Historical accounts of Wallace’s execution, 1305.

3. Tudor court records and biographies of Henry VIII’s consorts.

4. Analyses of COVID policy enforcement and corporate compliance mechanisms.

5. Reformation historiography on oaths and martyrdoms.

Bibliography

• The Six Wives of Henry VIII by Alison Weir.

• William Wallace: Braveheart historical biographies.

• Colorado court documents, People v. Peters, 2024-2026.

• Various news archives on 2020 election integrity debates (Heritage Foundation, state audits).

• The Politics of Heaven (forthcoming) for extended historical parallels.

• Primary sources on the Inquisition and the Reformation tortures.

Rich Hoffman

More about me

Click Here to Protect Yourself with Second Call Defense https://www.secondcalldefense.org/?affiliate=20707

About the Author: Rich Hoffman

He has advised candidates, executives, and public leaders, while conducting deep, hands‑on exploration of archaeological and supernatural hotspots across the world.

Ohio’s Unfinished Economic Reckoning: How Amy Acton’s Lockdowns Created the High-Price Reality Democrats Are Trying to Now Blame on Trump and Vivek Ramaswamy—but the guilt is completely on Lockdown Democrats

In the spring of 2026, Ohio voters are being told a familiar story by the Democratic ticket led by the stringy-haired Amy Acton. High grocery bills, elevated gas prices, stubborn supply-chain bottlenecks, and the everyday squeeze felt by working families and small manufacturers are, according to Acton’s campaign and its surrogates—Mark Elias, David Pepper, and the usual Democratic spokespeople—the direct result of Trump-era policies and the supposed continuation of that agenda under Vivek Ramaswamy. The irony is staggering. The very architect of Ohio’s most disruptive government intervention in modern history—the woman who, as Director of the Ohio Department of Health in 2020, signed the stay-at-home orders that shuttered schools, closed non-essential businesses, and upended millions of lives—is now positioning herself as the solution to the very economic pain her policies created.

This is not partisan rhetoric. It is a matter of documented cause and effect, visible every day in Ohio’s factories, restaurants, construction sites, and family budgets. The high prices we live with in 2026 are not primarily the fault of tariffs, speculation, or any single administration in Washington. They are the long shadow of a forced economic shock imposed in 2020 by a centralized government decree—one in which Amy Acton played a central role, coordinating with federal health authorities, the CDC, the World Health Organization, and, ultimately, with policies shaped by information flowing from China. The damage was not abstract. It was immediate, structural, and enduring. And while headline statistics have been massaged to suggest recovery, the real economy—especially for midsize manufacturers, small businesses, and working families—never returned to its pre-2019 equilibrium.

To understand why Acton’s record matters now, we must revisit what actually happened in Ohio in the spring of 2020. On March 22, 2020, Acton issued a stay-at-home order effective at 11:59 p.m. that night. Non-essential businesses were closed. Schools shuttered. Gatherings were limited. The order, later extended by Governor Mike DeWine, was not a suggestion; it carried the force of law. Within weeks, Ohio’s unemployment rate exploded from roughly 4.5 percent pre-pandemic to a peak of 16.4 percent in April 2020—the highest level in modern state history. More than 2.1 million unemployment claims were filed that year alone, compared to just 360,000 in all of 2019. Entire sectors—manufacturing, hospitality, transportation, professional services—were suddenly and forcibly interrupted.

This was not a natural recession triggered by market conditions. Ohio’s economy in early 2020 was not overheating. It was not over-leveraged. It was functioning normally until the government decree flipped the switch. The result was a structural break in continuity that no amount of federal stimulus could fully repair. Over 341,000 non-farm jobs disappeared in a single year—a decline of more than 6 percent. Manufacturing, the backbone of Ohio’s economy, absorbed a particularly brutal blow, losing roughly 480,000 jobs at the height of the crisis. Supply chains that had taken decades to optimize were severed overnight. Relationships between suppliers, customers, and workers were shattered. Skills atrophied. Experience was lost.

Federal relief money flowed in—Ohio ultimately received billions through the CARES Act and subsequent packages, with more than $10 billion in direct grant funding allocated early on and additional ARPA dollars later. That money stabilized household consumption and prevented total collapse on paper. It propped up demand. But it did not rebuild labor pools, restore broken supplier networks, or reverse the loss of institutional knowledge. GDP figures eventually rebounded. On the surface, Ohio appeared to recover. Yet for thousands of private, midsize, and industrial firms—the companies that form the real productive core of the state—the recovery never materialized in the way that matters most. Revenue stabilized in some cases, but labor did not return evenly. Supply chains remained fragile six years later. Many businesses entered a new, permanently altered economic reality from which they have yet to exit.

Look at the numbers that actually matter on the ground. Manufacturing employment has clawed back toward pre-pandemic levels in headline counts—hovering near 680,000 statewide by late 2025 and into 2026—but the composition is different. Output rose in aggregate, yet headcount remained flat or declined in many subsectors. Productivity gains came not from rebuilding capacity but from automation, consolidation, and doing more with fewer people. Smaller suppliers absorbed shocks they could not pass along. Material inflation, labor shortages, and customer concentration became permanent features. A 2025 survey of Ohio manufacturers found that around 40 percent still cited material costs as a major concern, with tariffs and other factors playing secondary roles. Speculators and opportunistic pricing certainly contributed to some price spikes—gasoline being the most visible example—but the underlying fragility traces directly back to the 2020 rupture.

Even more telling is the labor force participation rate. Ohio’s rate dropped sharply in 2020 and has never fully recovered. As of March 2026, it stands at approximately 62.1 percent—still roughly 1.3 percentage points below 2019 levels. That gap represents tens of thousands of missing workers. Many retired early. Others shifted to disability. Skilled trades lost experienced hands who never re-entered. The pandemic accelerated trends already underway—remote work, changing employer expectations—but the government-mandated shutdown turned those trends into a structural labor shortage. Employers now pay significantly higher wages without corresponding productivity gains. Chronic hiring difficulties persist. Small and midsize businesses, lacking the scale of large corporations, took the brunt of this hit.

The human and business-level consequences are visible in every corner of the state. Fast-food restaurants that once operated with long lines and reliable staffing still struggle with chronic understaffing. Supply chains that used to move with just-in-time efficiency now carry permanent buffers, higher costs, and longer lead times. Contracts signed in 2018 or 2019 based on pre-pandemic pricing realities cannot be easily renegotiated in 2024 or 2025 when everything from labor to materials has inflated. Large buyers—Walmart, major distributors, big manufacturers—hold suppliers to those old terms while their own costs have risen. Many smaller firms plateaued at lower output, higher risk, and reduced resilience. Nearly half of the Ohio businesses operating in 2019 were no longer active by 2024. New formations occurred, as they often do after crises, but stimulus checks or reconfigured statistics cannot replace the permanent loss of experience, relationships, and localized capacity.

This was not mismanagement or an isolated failure. It was a structured shock imposed by the government, and in Ohio, by Amy Acton directly. The recovery that followed was real on paper but redistributive in practice. Large firms with access to capital, automation, equity markets, and policy cushions emerged stronger. Smaller private companies absorbed transition costs without the same protections. Stimulus prioritized consumption over reconstruction of upstream production capacity. The result is an economy that looks healthier in aggregate GDP and unemployment figures but feels fundamentally different—and more fragile—for the businesses and workers who actually produce goods and services.

Compounding the damage were subsequent policy choices, including repeated minimum-wage adjustments tied to CPI and other labor-market interventions. While intended to help workers, these hikes acted as an artificial price floor that businesses—especially those already reeling from supply-chain disruption—had to absorb by raising consumer prices. In an environment where labor shortages already drove up wages, the added pressure from mandated increases translated directly into higher menu prices, higher retail costs, and thinner margins for the very firms least able to absorb them. Democrats often frame these as acts of compassion, but the economic reality is that they function as another layer of costs passed on to consumers in an economy still recovering from the original government-imposed rupture.

Contrast this track record with the alternative represented by Vivek Ramaswamy. As an entrepreneur who built real companies and created substantial value, Ramaswamy understands from firsthand experience what it takes to navigate supply chains, labor markets, capital allocation, and regulatory hurdles. His platform—aggressive tax cuts (including phasing down the state income tax and meaningful property tax relief), energy independence through expanded natural gas and streamlined permitting, and a laser focus on reducing the regulatory burden—addresses the structural issues that Acton’s policies left behind. Where Democrats offer more stimulus, more government employment, and more wealth redistribution, Ramaswamy offers the conditions for genuine private-sector expansion: lower taxes so families and businesses keep more of what they earn, reduced uncertainty so investment can return, and policies that reward production rather than consumption propped up by printed money.

The political inversion is almost Orwellian. The same network of Democratic operatives—Mark Elias, David Pepper, and their allies—who have spent years litigating, regulating, and centralizing power now seek to pin the enduring consequences of their own policy choices on the very people who warned against them. They want voters to forget that Acton was the public face of the orders that closed Ohio’s economy. They want voters to ignore the long-term scarring visible in labor participation, small-business survival rates, and fragile supply chains. And they want to portray Vivek Ramaswamy—an outsider who built a billion-dollar value through innovation and discipline—as somehow responsible for prices that trace directly to decisions made in 2020 under Democratic-influenced health policy.

This is not ancient history. The effects are measurable today. Manufacturing survived the shock but did not return to its prior equilibrium. Labor-force participation remains depressed. Supply chains are still adapting. Smaller firms operate with lower resilience. High prices at the grocery store, the gas pump, and the restaurant counter are not mysterious. They are the predictable outcome of a forced shutdown followed by stimulus that prioritized short-term consumption over long-term productive capacity. Government did not merely interrupt Ohio’s economy in 2020—it rewired it. And for many companies, especially private midsize and industrial firms, the 2020 era has never truly ended.

Ohioans deserve better than political amnesia. They deserve leaders who understand that real economic vitality comes from production, not redistribution; from predictable policy, not repeated government shocks; and from accountability, not blame-shifting. Amy Acton’s record as Health Director is not a footnote—it is the central chapter in the story of why so many Ohio families and businesses are still paying the price six years later. Vivek Ramaswamy’s background as a value-creating entrepreneur offers the clearest alternative: a governor who will cut taxes, slash red tape, expand energy production, and restore the conditions under which Ohio businesses and workers can thrive again.

The choice in 2026 is not abstract. It is between continuing the politics that created the problem and embracing the policies that can finally heal the damage. Ohio’s real economy—its factories, its family businesses, its working men and women—has waited long enough for that reckoning. But when we have to talk about who is responsible for all the misery we are still feeling, there is only one person to blame, and that is Amy Acton, the Lockdown Lady.

Footnotes

1. Ohio Department of Job and Family Services, Employment Situation Indicators, various monthly releases 2020–2026.

2. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Ohio JFS data on unemployment claims and rates, April 2020 peak.

3. Contemporary reporting on Acton’s stay-at-home order, March 22, 2020 (Ohio Department of Health).

4. Federal COVID-19 grant funding allocations to Ohio, CARES Act, and subsequent packages (approximately $10 billion+ in early grants).

5. Ohio manufacturing employment and labor force participation trends, Ohio LMI and FRED data through March 2026.

6. NFIB and small-business survival analyses post-2020.

7. Surveys of Ohio manufacturers on material costs and supply-chain issues, 2025.

8. Vivek Ramaswamy campaign platform materials on tax relief, energy, and regulatory reform.

9. Additional sourcing from Policy Matters Ohio, the Cleveland Fed, and contemporaneous economic analyses of pandemic impacts.

Bibliography

• Ohio Department of Job and Family Services. Employment Situation Indicators (monthly releases, 2019–2026).

• U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Labor force, employment, and unemployment data for Ohio.

• Acton, Amy. Director’s Stay-at-Home Order, Ohio Department of Health, March 22, 2020.

• Federal COVID relief tracking reports (CARES Act, ARPA allocations to Ohio).

• NFIB Ohio Small Business Economic Trends reports.

• Cleveland Federal Reserve District data briefs on supply-chain disruptions.

• Ramaswamy for the Ohio campaign platform documents.

• Contemporary news coverage from AP, Signal Ohio, and Ohio LMI publications.

Rich Hoffman

More about me

Click Here to Protect Yourself with Second Call Defense https://www.secondcalldefense.org/?affiliate=20707

About the Author: Rich Hoffman

He has advised candidates, executives, and public leaders, while conducting deep, hands‑on exploration of archaeological and supernatural hotspots across the world.

The 2026 Ohio Gubernatorial Race: Vivek Ramaswamy’s Commanding Position Against Amy Acton’s COVID Legacy and the Democrat Playbook

As the dust settles on Ohio’s May 5, 2026, primary election, the stage is set for one of the most consequential gubernatorial contests in the state’s recent history. Biotech entrepreneur and Trump-endorsed Republican Vivek Ramaswamy emerged as the overwhelming GOP nominee, crushing fringe challenger Casey Putsch with approximately 82.5% of the vote (673,902 votes to Putsch’s 143,257). Ramaswamy swept every single county in Ohio, a remarkable show of unity across urban, suburban, and rural areas. On the Democratic side, former Ohio Department of Health Director Dr. Amy Acton secured the nomination unopposed, garnering around 742,000–760,000 votes in a low-energy primary. Overall voter turnout reached about 22.6% of registered voters, a modest uptick from recent midterm cycles.

This matchup pits a dynamic, pro-growth outsider in Ramaswamy—backed by President Donald Trump and positioning Ohio as the nation’s top economic powerhouse—against Acton, whose public profile remains indelibly tied to the state’s aggressive COVID-19 response. As one conservative commentator noted in a recent podcast monologue, the race is far from the neck-and-neck horse race portrayed in some polling and media narratives. While recent surveys show a tight contest (with some giving Acton a slight edge or Ramaswamy a narrow lead), the ground game, Trump’s coattails, independent-voter outreach, and Acton’s historical liabilities suggest that Ramaswamy enters the general election with a structural advantage that could widen significantly by November 3, 2026.

To fully appreciate this contest, we must delve into the candidates’ backgrounds, the primary results and their implications, the lingering economic scars from the pandemic era, comparative policy outcomes in neighboring states, and the broader political currents reshaping Ohio. This analysis expands on grassroots conservative perspectives—while incorporating verifiable data on turnout, economic metrics, investment challenges, and campaign tactics. Far from a replay of “yesteryear” Democrat strategies, this race highlights how progressive governance models have faltered in a post-Trump political landscape.

Candidate Profiles: Contrasting Visions for Ohio’s Future

Vivek Ramaswamy, a Cincinnati native and biotech billionaire, represents a fresh face in Ohio politics despite his national profile from the 2024 Republican presidential primary. Born to Indian immigrant parents, Ramaswamy built a successful pharmaceutical company (Roivant Sciences) before pivoting to public service. His Trump endorsement came early and emphatically, framing him as a “young, strong, and smart” leader committed to meritocracy, deregulation, and economic revival. Ramaswamy’s campaign emphasizes making Ohio the “#1 state” through pro-business policies, workforce upskilling, and attracting high-tech investment in sectors like semiconductors and biotechnology. He campaigns on the “high road,” avoiding personal attacks while highlighting policy contrasts. Critics from the far-right fringes—such as Putsch, dubbed the “car guy” for his automotive-themed online persona—have leveled baseless claims about Ramaswamy’s heritage or loyalty, echoing outdated nativist arguments. Ramaswamy has dismissed these as irrelevant, noting his personal integrity and fair play: his running mate, Ohio Senate President Rob McColley, bolsters legislative experience.

In stark contrast stands Dr. Amy Acton, a physician from Youngstown with a compelling personal story of overcoming hardship in a steel mill family. She rose through public health ranks to become Ohio’s Health Director in 2019 under Republican Gov. Mike DeWine. Acton’s national visibility peaked during the early COVID-19 crisis, when she joined DeWine for daily briefings and advocated strict mitigation measures. These included Ohio’s first-in-the-nation school closures, stay-at-home orders (issued March 22, 2020), business shutdowns, and even the postponement of the state’s presidential primary. Supporters praised her as a calming, data-driven voice who “flattened the curve” and protected hospitals. However, detractors—including many business owners, parents, and conservatives—blame her policies for devastating economic and educational fallout, from mental health crises among youth to prolonged business closures. Acton resigned in June 2020 amid personal threats and protests, later serving briefly as a health advisor before entering the private sector and academia. Her 2026 campaign, with running mate and former Democratic Party chair David Pepper, focuses on “power back to the people,” affordability, and a critique of “billionaires and special interests.” Yet her record remains a focal point of Republican attacks, with Ramaswamy labeling her tenure an “abandonment of responsibility.”

Acton’s campaign has leaned on traditional Democratic infrastructure, including legal support from figures like election attorney Mark Elias, who has been linked to aggressive tactics such as cease-and-desist letters targeting critics. Pepper, a vocal strategist, has served as an attack dog, pushing narratives that question Ramaswamy’s Ohio investment record or allege personal scandals (e.g., unsubstantiated claims of extramarital affairs, which can easily be dismissed as fabrications). These echo “yesteryear” playbook moves but risk backfiring in an era of heightened voter skepticism toward centralized government overreach.

Primary Season: A Landslide for Ramaswamy, Unopposed for Acton

The May 5 primaries crystallized Republican enthusiasm. Ramaswamy’s 82.5% victory margin—far exceeding pre-primary polls showing him at 50-76%—demonstrated broad consolidation. He won 60-90%+ in nearly every county, from Democratic-leaning urban centers to deep-red rural areas, per county-by-county maps. Putsch, representing a self-described “radical right” element with fringe ideas (e.g., racial primacy in voting or extreme nativism), captured only 17.5% and never posed a serious threat. GOP insiders viewed him as illegitimate, akin to past primary spoilers. This sweep signals unified party backing, contrasting with historical GOP infighting (e.g., the 2016 Trump vs. Cruz/Rubio dynamics, in which critics eventually coalesced post-nomination).

Acton’s uncontested path yielded solid but unremarkable Democratic turnout. Overall, the low primary participation (22.6%) underscores that the real battle begins now, targeting the 2-3% of independents and soft partisans who decide the general election. Ramaswamy’s primary dominance positions him to inherit the full Republican machinery, amplified by Trump’s upcoming Ohio appearances.

The Economic Reckoning: COVID Policies, Recovery, and Investment Challenges

Central to the race is Acton’s COVID legacy and its economic toll. Ohio’s early lockdowns contributed to sharp job losses—hundreds of thousands in spring 2020—with uneven recovery. While statewide GDP rebounded (Ohio’s 2023 GDP was around $884 billion, according to BEA data), sectors such as hospitality, retail, and education lagged. Critics argue Acton’s orders exacerbated long-term damage: prolonged school closures harmed student outcomes, and business restrictions drove some enterprises to relocate. Ramaswamy has tied this to Ohio’s failure to recover fully, positioning his administration to reverse it through deregulation and investment incentives.

Ohio’s business climate has improved—ranked No. 7 nationally and No. 1 in the Midwest in the 2026 Chief Executive CEO survey—but faces headwinds. The high-profile Intel semiconductor plant in New Albany (announced in 2022 with up to $20-100 billion promised) exemplifies stalled momentum: construction delays pushed first production from 2025/2026 to 2030-2031, with Intel investing $5+ billion by early 2026 but citing market and financial caution. Opponents blame pandemic-era policies and regulatory uncertainty; supporters note national chip shortages and the federal CHIPS Act. Regardless, such delays highlight the risk of capital flight if Ohio appears unstable.

Comparisons to neighboring states underscore the stakes. Indiana, a right-to-work state since 2012, has often outperformed Ohio in manufacturing retention and unemployment (recently ~3.3% vs. Ohio’s ~4.1-4.2%). Studies on right-to-work show mixed but generally positive effects on job growth in competitive sectors. Michigan (post-right-to-work repeal) and Pennsylvania (swing state with union influence) have seen volatile recoveries, with Michigan’s auto sector still grappling with post-COVID supply chains. Kentucky, under GOP leadership but with its own challenges (e.g., successor dynamics under former Gov. Beshear), attracts some investment but lags in high-tech draws. Ohio, lacking right-to-work status despite past attempts (e.g., failed 2011 SB5), relies on tax incentives and workforce development—but Acton’s era amplified perceptions of anti-business hostility. Post-pandemic GDP growth has been comparable across the region (Ohio ~2.1% in recent years), yet Ohio’s unemployment edged higher in some BLS snapshots, and narratives of a business exodus persist. Ramaswamy’s platform—aligning with a potential Trump administration—promises to lure dollars from Indiana, Michigan, and beyond by emphasizing economic viability over lockdowns.

Unions add another layer. Traditionally Democratic strongholds (teachers, public sector) have shifted toward Trump-era populism on trade and energy. Acton’s ties to labor risk alienating moderates if framed as favoring centralized mandates over job creation. Ramaswamy’s pro-worker, anti-regulation stance could peel independents.

Campaign Tactics, Polling Realities, and Broader Ohio Politics

Recent polls paint a competitive picture—RCP averages near even, with outliers like an early-2026 Emerson showing Acton +1 and Bowling Green/YouGov favoring Ramaswamy slightly. Yet intuition will hold: horse-race media and ad buyers inflate closeness for engagement. Ramaswamy’s primary sweep, Trump rallies, and Acton’s baggage (framed as “COVID queen” by the GOP) suggest momentum. Early attacks—scandals, investment critiques—have already been deployed, leaving Democrats vulnerable to “October surprise” fatigue. Elias-style legal maneuvers and Pepper’s opposition research risk overreach, mirroring past Democratic missteps in red-leaning Ohio.

Ohio’s political map favors Republicans in gubernatorial races—no Democrat has won since 2006. Trump carried the state handily in 2016, 2020, and 2024. Ramaswamy inherits this, plus Senate and House majorities for swift policy wins. Acton represents a “propped-up Biden figure”: big government, unions, and progressive holdouts hoping to stall MAGA momentum. But as unions court Trump and independents prioritize pocketbooks, her path narrows.

Outlook: Boots on the Ground and a Call to Action

The general election will hinge on turnout and independents. Ramaswamy’s personal appeal—honest, non-combative—contrasts with Acton’s defensive posture. As the monologue urges, do not take victory for granted: vote in November, rally behind the nominee. With Trump stumping and economic contrasts sharpening, Ramaswamy could pull away decisively. Ohio’s recovery from pandemic policies, Intel’s fate, and regional competition will define the narrative.

In sum, this race transcends personalities. It tests whether Ohio embraces pro-growth conservatism or reverts to centralized experimentation. Data favors the former; history and momentum reinforce it. As voters weigh track records, Ramaswamy’s vision aligns with a thriving Ohio, while Acton’s invites scrutiny of past costs. The coming months promise clarity—and opportunity, along with a lot of political drama. Amy Acton will have a hard time surviving the intensity that is headed her way.

Footnotes

1. AP projections and primary results, May 2026.

2. Ramaswamy’s victory speech and Acton’s coverage of the criticism.

3. BLS unemployment data (Feb/Mar 2026 snapshots).

4. BEA GDP by state reports.

5. Chief Executive 2026 Best States for Business survey.

6. Ballotpedia and NYT poll aggregates.

(Additional citations drawn from campaign filings, historical COVID orders via Ohio Dept. of Health archives, and economic impact studies.)

Bibliography (Selected for Further Reading)

• Associated Press. “Ohio Primary Election Results 2026.” May 6, 2026.

• Ballotpedia. “2026 Ohio Gubernatorial Election.”

• Bureau of Labor Statistics. “State Employment and Unemployment Summary.” 2026 releases.

• Bureau of Economic Analysis. “GDP by State.” Annual updates through 2025/2026.

• Chief Executive Magazine. “Best & Worst States for Business 2026.” April 2026.

• NBC News / 10TV. Primary results coverage, May 2026.

• New York Times. “Ohio Governor Election Polls 2026.”

• Ohio Secretary of State. Official primary turnout and county results.

• RealClearPolling. “2026 Ohio Governor: Ramaswamy vs. Acton.”

• Various: CNN, Dispatch, Signal Ohio reporting on candidates and Intel project (2025-2026).

Rich Hoffman

More about me

Click Here to Protect Yourself with Second Call Defense https://www.secondcalldefense.org/?affiliate=20707

About the Author: Rich Hoffman

He has advised candidates, executives, and public leaders, while conducting deep, hands‑on exploration of archaeological and supernatural hotspots across the world.

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