Tag: Ken Paxton

Why the 2026 Midterm Polls Are Still Misleading: Ohio, Texas, Wisconsin, and the Persistent Republican Non-Response Bias

I have been watching the midterm landscape closely in mid-August 2026. Three months out from Election Day, the polling averages in several key races look tighter than the underlying partisan lean of these states would suggest. Ohio’s governor’s race between Vivek Ramaswamy and Amy Acton sits near a toss-up. The special Senate election between Jon Husted and Sherrod Brown is competitive. In Texas, Ken Paxton and James Talarico are essentially deadlocked in recent surveys. Then came the Wisconsin Democratic primary, where the polls were off by roughly 20 points in the direction favoring the more progressive candidate.

I have said for a long time that a meaningful portion of the modern polling industry carries systematic bias against Republicans. Conservatives and Trump voters are less likely to pick up the phone or complete a survey. Pollsters still lean on models and samples that over-weight the people who do answer—disproportionately Democrats and people more inclined to engage with survey-takers. On top of that sits a commercial incentive: close races generate more advertising dollars. Campaigns with money to spend feel pressure to keep spending when the horse race looks competitive. Wisconsin just provided another public demonstration of how badly these models can fail when late undecideds and turnout dynamics break in one direction.

I do not think the actual underlying margins in Ohio or Texas are as tight as the published averages. I think several points in these surveys understate Republicans, and if the election were held today, the Republican candidates would win more comfortably than the current numbers imply. That is not complacency. It is pattern recognition from 2016 forward, reinforced by the Wisconsin result and by what I see on the ground and on platforms where people actually speak freely.

Wisconsin Democratic Primary 2026: The 20-Point Polling Collapse of Francesca Hong

The clearest recent data point is Wisconsin. Polls consistently showed Democratic Socialist State Representative Francesca Hong leading Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley by double digits—sometimes by around 20 points. One late survey had her at 44 percent to Crowley’s 22 percent. Another earlier reading put her near 38 percent with Crowley in single digits and a large undecided bloc. 

On primary night Crowley won by less than half a percentage point. Hong received roughly the share the final polls had projected for her—around 39 percent. The entire error was on Crowley’s side. Late-deciding and previously undecided voters broke hard against the more radical option. Primaries are harder to model than generals because turnout is lower and more volatile, and Wisconsin’s open primary added another layer of uncertainty. Still, the scale of the miss is striking. The models captured the progressive candidate’s floor but completely missed the late surge to the more traditional Democrat. 

I was not surprised. There is a recurring temptation inside media and polling circles to treat energized progressive or socialist factions as larger than they are. College campuses, activist networks, and highly engaged online progressive voters are easy to reach and happy to talk to pollsters. The broader primary electorate is less so. When the actual voters showed up, the socialist ceiling was exposed. The same pattern has appeared in other recent cycles, in which early surveys elevate a hard-left candidate and then the candidate underperforms once undecideds and lower-propensity voters enter the picture.

Current Ohio Governor Polls: Vivek Ramaswamy vs Amy Acton in Mid-August 2026

In Ohio, the governor’s race is officially an open seat. Aggregates in mid-August put Vivek Ramaswamy and former state health director Amy Acton essentially even, or with Ramaswamy ahead by less than a point. One recent weighted average had Ramaswamy at 47.0 percent and Acton at 46.2 percent. Individual surveys have bounced: some Democratic-leaning pollsters have shown Acton up two or three points; others have shown a tie or a small Republican edge. 

Ohio is not a pure 50-50 state. Donald Trump carried it by roughly eleven points in 2024. The underlying Republican structural advantage has been visible for several cycles. A race this close in the averages, this far out, is therefore anomalous on its face. Acton’s association with COVID-era restrictions remains a live liability with a large share of the electorate that still remembers the lockdowns and school closures. Ramaswamy’s profile is national and polarizing, which creates some friction among independents and moderates, but the state’s recent presidential and statewide results do not suggest a natural environment for a Democratic win.

Ohio Senate Race Polling: Jon Husted vs Sherrod Brown

The special Senate election is similarly compressed. Jon Husted, appointed after JD Vance’s elevation, faces former Senator Sherrod Brown. Aggregates in early August showed Husted ahead by roughly two to three points in some trackers, while other windows had Brown with a small edge or a statistical tie. A New York Times/Siena survey had Husted at 50–47. An AARP-sponsored poll earlier in the summer had Brown up three. The race is competitive on paper. 

Brown is a known quantity with residual personal brand strength among some working-class and older voters. Yet Ohio has continued moving right relative to the national environment. A race that looks this tight three months out again sits uncomfortably against the state’s recent performance. If nonresponse systematically suppresses Republican numbers, the published margins understate Husted’s true position.

Texas US Senate Polls 2026: Ken Paxton vs James Talarico Dead Heat

In Texas, the pattern repeats. The latest Emerson College survey (August 9–10) had Attorney General Ken Paxton at 47 percent and state Representative James Talarico at 46 percent among likely voters. Other recent polls have shown similar dead heats or small leads for either side. 

Texas is not a purple state. Trump won it by roughly fourteen points in 2024. Paxton is a polarizing figure with a long history of legal and political battles, which creates openings for a skilled Democratic challenger. Talarico has run a disciplined campaign and benefits from the same non-response dynamics that compress Republican leads elsewhere. Still, a race this close in a state with Texas’s underlying Republican baseline is another data point that looks softer for the GOP than the fundamentals imply.

The Persistent Problem of Republican Non-Response Bias in Modern Polling

The common thread is non-response. I am on every list. Campaigns and pollsters call and text constantly. I rarely answer. I vote in every primary and every general election, but I do not have time for a fifteen-minute questionnaire from someone I do not know. Many people in my circle operate the same way. Conservatives, older voters, rural voters, and Trump-aligned voters have lower cooperation rates with traditional survey methods. Cell-phone-only households, caller-ID screening, and general distrust of institutions make the problem worse than it was in the landline era. 

Democrats and more progressive voters, by contrast, remain relatively easy to reach and willing to engage. The result is a sample that is tilted before any weighting is applied. Pollsters attempt to correct with demographic targets, education weights, and recalled vote, but the corrections are imperfect. When the underlying population of interest—likely Republican voters—has systematically lower response rates, the adjusted numbers still lag. This is not a new observation. It has been discussed after 2016, 2020, and 2022. Wisconsin’s primary is simply the latest high-profile reminder that the models can still break when late movement occurs among the harder-to-reach.

Media and Pollster Incentives to Keep Races Looking Close

There is also a commercial layer. Close races sell. Media companies and the consultants who live off campaign advertising benefit when the horse race stays competitive. Republican candidates and committees have raised substantial sums. Those dollars flow more readily when the published polls suggest the outcome is in doubt. A seven- or eight-point underlying Republican advantage, when published as a two-point race, generates more television, digital, and direct-mail spending than a blowout narrative would. I am not claiming a grand conspiracy in every survey. I am saying the incentive structure rewards the appearance of competitiveness, and the sampling problems make that appearance easier to produce.

Why Platforms Like X Offer a Clearer Picture Than Traditional Surveys

This is where platforms that still allow relatively unfiltered speech become useful. People say things online under their own names or consistent pseudonyms that they will not say to a stranger on the phone. Sentiment on X, when read carefully and at scale, has often been a better leading indicator of Republican energy than the published telephone and online panel averages. AI systems that can process large volumes of public posts provide another check on the traditional samples. They are not perfect—online populations are not identical to the electorate—but they are less constrained by the cooperation-rate problem that plagues live interviewers and many opt-in panels.

What a Real Election Day Would Show Right Now in These States

If the election were held in the middle of August 2026, I believe the Republican candidates in these races would win by larger margins than the current averages indicate—closer to the seven- or eight-point range in Ohio and a clearer, more comfortable win for Paxton in Texas. That is not a prediction locked in stone for November. Turnout, national mood, candidate performance, and late events still matter. Campaigns cannot rest on structural advantages. But the idea that these races are true toss-ups or that Texas is on the verge of flipping requires accepting that the polling error has suddenly vanished. Wisconsin suggests it has not.

Election Night Dynamics in Ohio: Urban Early Returns vs Rural Reality

Ohio’s geography still shapes how results appear on election night. Early returns from the Columbus area and other urban centers can create a temporary Democratic lead. As the suburban and rural counties between the cities report, the numbers swing back. That pattern has been consistent. Watching the first 15 or 30 minutes of returns without understanding the sequence can cause unnecessary panic. The same logic applies to interpreting summer polls that over-sample the easier-to-reach urban and college populations.  And if surveys do not account for this real estate trend, their outlook will not be accurate.  If rural people don’t respond to the poll, they won’t be counted.  

I have been around these fights long enough to recognize the difference between a genuine shift in the electorate and a measurement problem. The Wisconsin primary was a measurement problem with real consequences for the models. The compressed margins in Ohio and Texas look like the same problem applied to general-election contests in states that have been moving toward Republicans. Non-response among the very voters who decide these races remains the central issue. Until the industry solves the cooperation-rate gap, or until alternative signals from freer platforms are weighted more heavily, the published numbers will continue to understate the Republican side. Plan accordingly.

Footnotes

1.  Aggregated Ohio governor polling as of mid-August 2026 from Pollsmax and concurrent trackers showing Ramaswamy 47.0 / Acton 46.2 and recent individual surveys (NYT/Siena, Tulchin, AARP/Fabrizio, etc.).

2.  Wisconsin primary result: David Crowley approximately 39.8 percent, Francesca Hong approximately 39.3 percent; pre-election surveys consistently showed Hong leads of 15–20+ points.

3.  Ohio Senate aggregates and individual polls (Pollsmax, NYT/Siena, AARP, Beacon/Shaw) place the race within a few points either way.

4.  Emerson College/Nexstar Texas Senate poll, August 9–10, 2026: Paxton 47, Talarico 46.

5.  Discussion of non-response bias and primary modeling difficulties drawn from post-election analyses of the Wisconsin results and longer-standing literature on declining survey cooperation rates among conservatives.

6.  2024 presidential margins: Ohio approximately R+11, Texas approximately R+14, Wisconsin narrow Republican win.

Bibliography for Further Reading

•  Pollsmax, RealClearPolitics, 270toWin, and Decision Desk HQ aggregate pages for 2026 Ohio governor, Ohio Senate special, and Texas Senate.

•  Emerson College Polling releases on Texas, August 2026.

•  Contemporary reporting and post-mortems on the Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary (Axios, New York Times, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, Marquette Law School Poll commentary).

•  Historical analyses of non-response bias in U.S. political polling after the 2016, 2020, and 2022 cycles.

•  Public statements and data releases from the campaigns of Vivek Ramaswamy, Jon Husted, Ken Paxton, Amy Acton, Sherrod Brown, and James Talarico.

•  Academic and industry papers on declining telephone survey response rates and the challenges of weighting for partisan non-response.

The numbers will keep coming. Watch what the hard-to-reach voters actually do when the ballots are counted, not onlywhat the people who answer the phone say in August.

Rich Hoffman

More about me

Click Here to Protect Yourself with Second Call Defense https://www.secondcalldefense.org/?affiliate=20707

About the Author: Rich Hoffman

Rich Hoffman is an author, political consultant, and strategic advisor based in Cincinnati, Ohio, and the creator of The Politics of Heaven—a unique framework that connects biblical theology, ancient history, and modern power structures to explain how moral alignment and spiritual forces shape global events. Blending real-world political experience with deep research into archaeology, UFO phenomena, and suppressed historical narratives, Hoffman offers compelling commentary on topics ranging from ancient civilizations and the Dead Sea Scrolls to modern populist movements, paranormal continuity, and leadership strategy in chaotic environments. As the author of The Gunfighter’s Guide to Business and the forthcoming Politics of Heaven, he brings a grounded yet provocative voice to media discussions, supported by firsthand experiences and a cross-disciplinary approach that bridges science, history, and theology. For interviews, speaking engagements, or expert analysis, visit richhoffmanbooks.com or contact directly via phone at 513-307-5815 or email at rhoffman@richhoffmanbooks.com.  If you’ve seen the movie, Disclosure Day and want to talk about it and the implications of Presidnet Trump’s UAP disclosures, let me know and we can bring some color to your coverage. https://richhoffmanbooks.com/media-inquiries-broadcast-topics-and-contact-info/?frame-nonce=ad51e7ecba I do have a firsthand UFO encounter to discuss.

Ken Paxton Acquitted: Revenge is coming, justifiably so

The Attorney General of Texas, Ken Paxton, has been acquitted of the charges of impeachment levied against him by the former Bush political machine. This should be a lesson that everyone should take note of. The old Republican Party, the one of Mitt Romney, and other RINOs like him, John Kasich comes to mind, is over. For anybody who wants to survive in politics going into the future, you better get right with the direction of the world.

The case against Paxton began back in 2015 when he was indicted on three counts of securities fraud and one count of failure to register with the state securities board. The charges were related to Paxton’s involvement with a company called Servergy, which he allegedly promoted without disclosing that he was receiving commissions for his efforts.

Despite the accusations, Paxton maintained his innocence throughout the trial. His defense team argued that the charges were politically motivated and that he had not broken any laws. In the end, the jury agreed with Paxton’s defense and found him not guilty on all counts.

While some people are celebrating the verdict, others are frustrated and disappointed. Many believe that the justice system has failed to hold Paxton accountable for his actions and that he has gotten away with a serious crime, as the Bush family had hoped to use against him. 

There are also concerns that the verdict could set a dangerous precedent, sending a message that public officials can get away with unethical and illegal behavior without any consequences.

Despite these concerns, Paxton has maintained that he is innocent and that justice has been served. He has thanked his supporters for standing by him throughout the trial and has vowed to continue fighting for the people of Texas.

Get ready, there will be a long string of these types of MAGA acquittals in the year to come.  And Trump is going to win in a landslide election.  And all those who performed as bad guys across the world will have revenge coming their way, as is perfectly justified by their own actions.  That revenge will come nationally, statewide, and locally.  And many will be in shock.  But they have it coming because of what they did.

Rich Hoffman

What to Know About the Ken Paxton Impeachment Trial: The old power of party politics wants to be in charge again, but it never will

What anybody needs to know about the Ken Paxton impeachment trial in Texas is that he’s a MAGA supporter who has been very influential.  At the outset of the 2020 election, as the Attorney General of Texas Paxton established one of the best cases for election fraud proof, which upset all those RINOs who wanted a clean break with Trump.  So, the old Bush power in Texas put a target on Paxton’s back right away.  And recently, Paxton was going after Google over privacy issues.  So, this trial in Texas, where the House has already impeached him from his position and now the Senate is going through the process of hearing the evidence cast against him, is an old game by the old forces who are clinging to their power from MAGA challenges to their established order.  It reminds me of a case in my county within the Republican Party, where legal warfare is regularly employed to destroy political rivals.  The core of the dispute is to resist the apparent changes that are part of the MAGA movement and the hope that if those challenges are destroyed, everything will snap back into the controls of the old days.  Where the Bush family was in charge, alliances with big companies like Google could occur under the radar, and election fraud could be conducted in the open, and nobody would question it.  It is interesting to watch, especially as RINO Republicans have attempted to shame Paxton with references to an affair he had that was well settled before any of these current issues emerged, which are being used to attack his character.  People see through it that it’s essentially the same type of case thrown at President Trump, and the results will be the same.

The Ken Paxton trial in Texas is an ongoing legal battle that has captured the attention of many across the United States. The problem centers around allegations of securities fraud against the Texas Attorney General, Ken Paxton. The case has been controversial, with many questioning the motives behind the investigation and subsequent charges. At the heart of the matter is the accusation that Ken Paxton committed securities fraud by encouraging investors to buy stock in a technology company without disclosing that he was receiving compensation for the recommendation. The case has been mired in legal battles and delays, with Paxton’s lawyers arguing that the charges should be dismissed due to a lack of evidence. As it is going, the case against Paxton has been weak at best, with the best parts of it involving going to the FBI with no evidence, just accusations. And if there were any merit to the case, the Biden DOJ would have picked it up because they want to take down Paxton for his election case against the federal handling of the 2020 election. But there was nothing there, leaving the entire issue to the flimsy holdovers of the Bush legacy control over Texas. So everything is coming out petty instead of having any good legal standing. As bad as it all is to attempt to impeach an attorney general by his party, over essentially, nothing but to get rid of a member of MAGA in the power politics of Texas, the attempt says far more than any of the evidence does that has been established against Paxton. We have uncovered a monster that we always knew was there but has emerged in the wake of Trump in the White House and the distinct fear that he will return, with people like Paxton gaining power.

I see these fights all over the country, and they are happening in just about every county.  As I have said about my county of Butler County, this is the number one issue challenging everyone.  Many supported Trump during his first term because he was in power then, but they held their nose and couldn’t wait for him to be removed from office, which they cheered for when they thought nobody was looking.  In the wake of one of the most massive crimes in world history, which was the stolen election of 2020, and the Covid release of a bioweapon against the public to allow for cheating to occur, no matter who was harmed in the process, you could see clearly where people were politically.  Many put on masks and surrendered everything to the health administrators, hoping that a superior power, more significant than Trump, would knock him out of office.  These are the same people who, just months before, would gut their mothers for a chance to get a VIP pass to a Trump event and stand next to him for a picture.  I watched all this action with curiosity.  And over the last three years, it has been obvious what they were up to all along: they wanted to go back to the regional powers, such as what the Bush family has over Texas.  And there is always some family like that all over the nation, and they were pleased to snap back into that control in the wake of Trump.  They wanted their power back, so anybody expressing Trump-like opinions now that Biden was in the White House were a target, and everyone expected Trump to be gone forever, in favor of some controlled asset like Ron DeSantis, they bet everything on that future.  And that isn’t what’s happening.

I tried to explain this to many people at our Lincoln Day dinner in Butler County, Ohio, after Ron DeSantis had just come and spoken to everyone.  Many were hoping that DeSantis was going to be the Trump killer.  I told them that Ron was going nowhere, which is precisely what has happened.  I found it surprising that nobody wanted to talk about Trump.  And those who did, and we saw this same kind of radicalism on the Lakota school board, where the former Trump supporters were quick to adjust to this new Biden world as if the former Republican president had never happened.  It was as if some great eraser would come along and put all the people who wanted power back in charge forever.  It was a bizarre exchange.  On that school board, the Lynda O’Conner’s of the world wanted to destroy the Darbi Boddys over essential political philosophy, establishment against MAGA.  And now there is panic in those groups because they have bet everything on the old forces destroying these new rivals.  All the political hits have not beaten their enemies; it has only made them stronger, just like what is happening with Trump.  And, of course, what is happening to Ken Paxton.  The frustration is that Paxton will emerge from this impeachment process with more political power, which is the case with all these traditional attacks.  The old games no longer work; people don’t like the kind of society that we have had with them in charge, such as the Bush family or the DeWine clan in Ohio.  People want better political parties to represent them, not those who make deals with Google to ruin our country, destroy our Constitution, and tell us that we’ll all be better after the compromises.  That them selling us out to foreign interests was to our advantage somehow.  But many have realized that the political parties, especially RINO Republicans, have not been good for us, and we want real change.  And we’re not going to accept sell-outs.  We’ve given them a chance in the past, and we are now forever against their further attempts.  And that they can get rid of Trump, Ken Paxton, or even regionally, Darbi Boddy or Roger Reynolds, and people will still be upset with the lackluster RINOs.  They will never regain their old power, and in the future, they will only be more and more resented.  That is the future of politics; we want more like Ken Paxton and fewer Jeb Bushes.  We want people who represent us, not some ruling-class aristocracy.  And those needs will only increase in the future; we will never go back to the old days that caused all these problems in the first place. 

Rich Hoffman