While discussing polling, let’s discuss the Bernie Moreno senate race in Ohio against Sherrod Brown, the entrenched Democrat who many have thought is unbeatable. Based on current polling in August of 2024, there is a lot of very encouraging news ahead of significant media buys by Moreno in the fourth quarter to seal the deal. Among voters over 50, Bernie Moreno is ahead of Sherrod Brown by 2. Across the state, with all voters considered, Brown is up by 4, but he has had to spend many millions of dollars to lose a lot of ground to Bernie essentially. I’ve talked about all that before, but these tight polls this early are very encouraging. Because the over 50 numbers fall into what I have been saying are the keys for Bernie to beat Sherrod Brown and take from the Democrats that long-held senate seat. If we’re going to make an honest pitch to defeat globalism, defeating Sherrod Brown’s seat in Ohio is essential. So this is good news because when it all comes down to boots on the ground, and the too big to rig campaign that all MAGA Republicans have to understand is a factor that works against them, we know that people over 50 tend to vote more than those under. So when we look at total voter engagement, things look very good for Bernie Moreno to swipe that senate seat away from the tentacles of the Democrat party. Trump hogs all the air when talking about politics, but stories like this one in Ohio with Bernie Moreno say the most about what is happening. When thinking about Bernie Moreno and the long history of Sherrod Brown, the first thing people think of is whether Bernie can win. Is he worth the campaign donation? Should I even knock on the doors trying to advocate for him to win? Should I even put out a yard sign? The answer is yes because not only can Bernie Moreno win, but he can win big, and the Sherrod Brown people know it.
There is a lot going for Bernie Moreno. He got into this race through his friendship with J.D. Vance who gave him an endorsement early in the process, well before Charlie Kirk and other national names did the same. Bernie also has a personal relationship with Don Jr. and Kimberly Guilfoyle that extends beyond politics into a real friendship. These are good names to know and point to a MAGA senate that would be unlike anything we’ve seen in our lifetimes as far as accountability and competence. When you look at some of the other senate seats across the country and what J.D. Vance has already been able to do during his first few years, many Trump family picks could make a Trump White House spectacular. Nothing like what was working against Trump in 2016-2020. I mean there is a reason that “they” want to kill him. Nothing else has stopped Trump and he is poised to win as his own polling shows him beating Kamala Harris without much of a fight. There is some media fanfare, but again, when we talk about the reality of engagement, many more people are excited to vote for Trump than Kamala Harris. She is a media creation designed to sell ad revenue to a horse race that appears much closer than it is. And on the back of that effort, there are many senate seats that will get Trump voters to vote for them, like Bernie Moreno. And there are opportunities for Republicans to pick up a massive majority in this upcoming senate.
If the media doesn’t try to keep these political races looking closer to reality, they will lose a lot of ad revenue they count on for their sustainability. And in Ohio, the close race between Brown and Moreno will be one of the most expensive in the country. But at this point, the Moreno team has not spent much money. I spoke to Moreno about this the other day, and he told me their plans for September and October, but Sherrod Brown will not be able to match them. The Democrats have already spent a small fortune in Ohio to get the weak results we discussed in the opening of this article: a 4-point lead across the state but with voters over 50 leaning toward Bernie by 2 points. And among independents, about a quarter of them are over 50. So, in an election where engagement between the parties is not equal, Democrats don’t have much to be excited about, whereas Republicans do; they just had the head of their ticket almost killed on live television, and being the tough guy he is, took the shot to the head in spectacular fashion and got up and pumped his bloody fist in defiance to the sky. And that guy has personally endorsed Bernie Moreno who is very close to the Trump family. Sherrod Brown is distraught, perhaps for the first time in his long political career. People are excited about Bernie Moreno’s potential. But they know what they get from Sherrod Brown and the Democrat achievements over this last decade is something people are running from, not running to.
During the summer, I do a lot of traveling for competitive shooting events, most weekends through September, and early on, I have seen Bernie Moreno signs all over the place in what I think is too soon for politics. However, it shows how excited people are for Trump and Trump-endorsed candidates. There are not many Sherrod Brown signs. I’ve seen a few here and there, but nothing like what is behind the Bernie Moreno movement, starting in July and moving into August. I have been to every interstate exit along the Ohio highway system, except for the turnpike, which I avoid in upper Ohio. So the Bernie Moreno signs are consistent, not just regionalized in Southern Ohio. One day, I wondered about all this when I noticed a neighbor putting out his Bernie Moreno signs early, so I asked him why. I hadn’t put mine out yet because I hadn’t been home really enough to do so. And he said he couldn’t wait to get Bernie Moreno into the Senate with Trump in the White House. And for him, that process started by putting a sign in his yard three months early. You do not see people doing that kind of thing for Sherrod Brown. Like I said, people know who he is. Bernie is the opportunity for something better, and if everything is pretty even now, by election day, Bernie will only get better, while Brown will have a lot to lose. Playing not to lose is not playing to win, and that’s where all Democrats find themselves. So yes, things are looking well for Bernie Moreno. We can’t take anything for granted, but as things are shaping up, Bernie Moreno has a great chance of beating Sherrod Brown and gaining that critical senate seat. There is a lot to be excited about. But take nothing for granted. And do all the work it takes. But in the end, everything will work for the better and be well worth it.
Rich Hoffman
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