The results of the Republican primary for the Ohio Senate, where Bernie Moreno won over Frank LaRose and Matt Dolan, will be similar to how Moreno will beat the entrenched Sherrod Brown.  It wasn’t that long ago when Jim Renacci ran against Brown, and I thought Jim had a great chance to win.  I knew Jim a bit and understood his personality.  And I’ve had a chance to get to know Bernie, and I think the lessons learned will undoubtedly fall in Bernie’s favor.  With Moreno getting just over 50% of the vote in that primary election against two other good Republican candidates, it is very telling how this will play out, which is something that many outlets have been considering now that the strength of the Trump pick had performed.  Can Bernie Moreno beat the dreaded Sherrod Brown?  The answer is yes.  Matt Dolan was a good sample of the anti-Trump vote, whether they be RINOs or Democrats, and statistically spreading them out from what we saw in the primary over into a general election should be pretty similar.  Looking at the voting results precinct by precinct, Bernie Moreno performed very well in the north, better than might usually be thought.  And, of course, in the south, Bernie Moreno dominated, which is somewhat expected.  Anything south of Columbus in a matchup with Sherrod Brown could be considered Bernie territory, while in the north, he is vulnerable because he’s not the Trump-endorsed candidate.  The Rust Belt unions want Bernie and Trump.  They will vote for the person Trump wants, which makes Trump the kingmaker in the Senate race if the anti-Trump forces couldn’t generate more than they did against Bernie Moreno, especially with all the negative ads that tell you everything you need to know about the matchup between Brown and Moreno. 

Additionally, this is something I discussed with the Moreno team during a private sit-down a few months ago.  Sherrod Brown may have been in the Ohio Senate for many decades and is a bastion for progressive politics on the radical left side, but he is vulnerable in ways that Jim Renacci didn’t exploit.  Jim got caught up in the classic high-ground strategy of not exploiting the problems with Sherrod Brown’s domestic violence issue.  The previous election results showed that Brown was vulnerable, but Renacci didn’t go there. In several debates, Brown turned the whole issue on its head and told Renacci he should be ashamed of himself for even bringing it up.  Since that election, Sherrod Brown has been much less ostentatious publicly, showing cryptic vulnerability.  Instead, being a crafty politician, he has pivoted towards Trump support as he was the president then and hasn’t run away from him.  Brown acts like Trump is his best friend to confuse voters into voting for a union ticket for further support.  However, a swing of 7-8 points could be eroded from Brown on the morality and ethics front, which could quickly put Moreno over the top in November.  So I don’t think it is as close of a race as the national pundits think using conventional wisdom.  I believe convention will be thrown out in 2024 because a new set of rules that nobody has ever seen before will be applied.  And Sherrod Brown doesn’t match up against that wisdom at all.  He is built for classic unionized politics where Democrats controlled the narrative.  But they have lost that narrative, which can’t be ignored when looking at any election results from around the country.

Then there is the Trump factor, which Sherrod Brown has not seen much of.  The first time around, Jim Renacci was the Trump pick.  I met them at the airport in Lunken, just outside Cincinnati, and Jim was very excited.  At that time, Trump was a popular president doing well, but the political left was in the middle of their Russia, Russia, Russia nonsense, looking for a hook to attempt to derail Trump.  Covid hadn’t hit yet, so nobody knew what to do about Trump’s popularity.  But Jim Renacci, as nice as he was perhaps, was too well-mannered for Sherrod Brown.  So even though Trump endorsed Renacci, the power of that endorsement was not fully realized, not in the way that Bernie Moreno will experience.  After seeing Bernie with Don Jr., J.D. Vance, and Vivek Ramaswamy over the last several months, I realized there is a much different atmosphere to this 2024 election that the Trump endorsement machine understands.  And Bernie has a personality that won’t waste it, whereas Jim just didn’t put the teeth into the effort to knock off Brown.  So Brown was more than a little lucky in that last election, that he didn’t have to face the Trump endorsement now that it has matured into a well-oiled machine.  And that endorsement means voter engagement, actual votes in a booth on election day and before.  I would say that the personality difference between Moreno and Renacci is worth about 8 points in a race like this.  Both were successful business people who were in the car dealership business.  But Moreno is much more like Don Jr regarding a likeability factor than Jim.  Nothing against Renacci, but personality means a lot and Bernie has a lot of it.  If people get to interact with him, they will learn it quickly.

So, three things identify Bernie Moreno as the best option for the Sherrod Brown senate seat: to join J.D. Vance as a Republican and MAGA member of the Senate.  First, Bernie is very likeable and people will want to vote for him, especially where Trump is also on the ticket.  Getting the Trump vote by itself will likely be enough to win this race.  Then there is the juice of the race, the ability to attack Brown and exploit his natural weaknesses due to poor family maintenance.  The media downplayed the domestic abuse conditions of Brown’s ex-wife, and even she gave him a pass publicly.  But there was plenty there to exploit and Moreno will be able to bring those weaknesses to the surface in much the way he stepped up and over Frank LaRose and Matt Dolan in this primary.  Then there is the geography of the situation.  Bernie needs to perform well in the north, north of Columbus.  He doesn’t even have to beat Sherrod Brown in the Cleveland area.  He needs to just do well.  Because in the South, it’s Trump country, and Bernie is the man.  It’s an easy math problem, one that Renacci wasn’t able to tap into.  There is just more pop for Bernie, and he has more endorsements from people who will hit the ground running for him.  Right before the primary election, Trump flew in, and Kristi Noem was in Dayton.  Then, the next day in Milford, Ohio, Kari Lake campaigned for Bernie with J.D. Vance.  Just a few weeks prior, Don Jr., Vivek Ramaswamy, Kimberly Guilfoyle, and others hit the trail, especially in the south, and put their arms around Bernie to secure a victory.  And when that is done for the general election, the results will be very healthy for Republicans up and down the ticket.  So I don’t think it will be close.  Bernie cracks over 50% while Sherrod Brown will be lucky to get into the 40s.  And there is undoubtedly a clear path for Bernie Moreno to become the next senator in Ohio. 

Rich Hoffman

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