I’m happy that Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill passed the House and is headed for the Senate with just enough votes.  But I’m also excited to see that Warren Davidson, my congressman, voted no on it, as did Thomas Massie.  I understand the push from Trump to get complete unity on the House votes, and that stragglers and rebels send a bad message to whip up votes, because there is still more work to do in the Senate.  This bill is necessary for Trump to fulfill his second-term promises, and it is risky to pay for prosperity with massive additions to the debt.  Trump was close to pulling this off successfully during his first term in that last year, but the Covid shutdowns proved to be a strategic disaster in that it opened the door for Trump’s additions to the national debt to spiral out of control once Biden was put in office and things went off the rails.  I have been telling people for many years what Trump would do once he returned to the White House, which was best said in his book, The Art of the Comeback.  That is an excellent book that I recommend everyone read for themselves.  It is common for businesspeople to gamble big with debt to pull off a jackpot return.  If you’ve ever played poker or Blackjack, it’s the same rules, but this is what Trump was hired for by the American people and he needs this Big Beautiful Bill to pull it off, which makes the 2017 Tax Cuts permanent and puts forward the Jobs act, and introduces eliminating taxes on tips and overtime pay, car loan interest, addresses border security, energy policy and spending cuts to Medicaid and SNAP.  But it also raises the debt ceiling by 4 trillion dollars, and it is at that point, Warren Davidson became a no vote. 

If I were in Warren’s shoes, and I’ll tell him when I see him next, I would have voted the same way he did.  It means you probably won’t get invited to the next White House event, but so what?  Right is right, and Warren Davidson, just as Thomas Massie and Rand Paul in the Senate, represent an area of Ohio and Kentucky that is done with government overreach.  So they represent the kind of people in those regions well, and no amount of whipping the votes will change that.  I don’t think Warren cares about a primary.  He’s been a congressman for a while and wants to do other things.  So if Trump gets mad at him, I think he will handle it.  It is risky business to fund prosperity with increased debt.  But, we did elect Trump to do exactly that, and if Trump wins his hand, which I think he will, America will see unheard of prosperity.  And it will happen fast.  But to pull it off, America will have to become the world’s dominant economy for the next twenty years, and that is indeed Trump’s intention.  By the time this bill passes the Senate, it will be midsummer, and that is why everything had to be put into that one bill, to get the Trump agenda off and going fast during that first year of his new term.  So that by the end of the year, and going into year 2, the economy will be red hot and people will see the benefits in their pocketbooks fast.  Playing it safe won’t get us there. 

We shouldn’t be in this situation; to Warren’s point, government spending should be much less.  We can’t trust some future Congress to be responsible and to do the right thing once Trump gets the economy moving in the right direction, after so many years of neglect.  Warren could have voted yes like everyone else to support Trump, but in his district in Ohio, people would have held it against him.  And he is supposed to represent the people, not to be strong-armed by Trump’s White House.  So it’s pretty tricky business to support something without supporting it.  But they had the votes, and Warren needed his name on the right side of history to remind future congressional people that we must return to cutting government spending very shortly.  But, to Trump’s point, as a business executive who has done this many times in his past, you can’t cut off your nose to spite your face, as many have done over the years to themselves.  Without realizing that they were doing it until it was too late.  I think it will take J.D. Vance to break the tying vote to pass the bill in the Senate.  There will be some theatrics, which Trump is trying to contain vigilantly, because he has put this on his back to deliver personally.  Trump knows how to work the executive ropes, which is why he’s so effective in the world, and I am confident that his vision for massive economic expansion to cover the increased debt burden will work.  At this point, the debt is so bad that it will take bold bets to recover a jackpot. Otherwise, there will be no chance to get out of it. We are in an all-or-nothing situation.

And to answer the question people in the media are asking about the checks on power, it had to be Trump.  The value of human capital is a currency not very well understood by the world, but it does emerge in business here and there.  Consultants try to capture the essence of human capital, but it comes down to personalities and how much people want access to them.  Trump has built his brand so that people want to know him; they want their picture next to him, and Trump is using that power to drive a narrative in ways that few others in the world could.  That’s why he can step into any negotiation in the world and have a positive impact.  I’ve read all of Trump’s books, many times, and I don’t think even he understands how that type of personality is developed in business.  Only that it is forged there; once a person has it, they can turn everything into gold.  I was playing Blackjack the other night and thinking about this very problem.  Trump is making big bets on this Bill, and using all the human capital he has built over the years to pull it off.  And with Warren’s vote he is saying, essentially that he has enough pictures with the President.  That he’s ready to move on and do something else, and while the lights are on him, he wants to remind people that fiscal spending needs to be pulled in once Trump is gone.  And this vote for him is a letter in a bottle he hopes gets found and acted upon shortly.  But first, Trump knows he has to place the big bets on 21.  And he has to force his way to beat the dealer.  And it’s not a win for him, but for America in one of the most spectacular political maneuvers the world has ever seen.  And we have to remember that we elected Trump to make this bet for us, and to play this game at this level, because it is all or nothing, literally.

Rich Hoffman

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