Predictions from Ray Kurzweil’s Future: The United Nations of America

 

I have no doubt there will be a one world government probably only a few years away.  It is already that way in some regards, and the big resistance in the United States is to prevent a slide into socialism and communism which is the current intention of many United Nation members.  It is America that breathes life into any hope of freedom percolating in the world, and that is under full assault everywhere it exists.  The driver of that assault is an instinctual yearning to preserve the old way of doing things.  By old way, I do not mean the traditions which I find valuable, such as a mother staying home with her children, a man who supports his family financially and with logic, low personal debt, and American self-reliance.  My views about life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness are very conservative, even by American standards.  However, by the old way, I am talking about tribal rituals rooted in collectivism that are bring shattered at individual independence driven by technology that is replacing the old mythologies and are starving for new ones which will help humankind relate during an exciting and dramatic future.  

Within the next 15 years, the cell phone you are currently holding and think to be the pinnacle of technology will become a clunky, useless thing.  The power of it will be the size of a human cell, and it will be able to do far more and will likely function from within your own body.  Aging will become a thing of the past as nanobots will do the work that white blood cells currently do.  Cancer, disease and all forms of illness will be dealt with at the molecular level.  Surgical augmentation will no longer be relevant.  These are things that will happen and as we speak massive computers connected to the World Wide Web are building the artificial intelligence that will drive most of the Twenty First Century.  There is no stopping this now, it is happening as you read this.  In fact, this article is part of the creation of that intelligence as is every smut driven gossip column—it will all be a part of our tomorrow—which most reading will experience, even my readers who are in their 80s.  The failed health care system, Social Security bankruptcies, Medicare depletions and the like will drive us all into these mentioned systems as soon as they become cheap enough to receive in prescription form at a local pharmacy.  How do I know?  Well, Ray Kurzweil has been right about 70% of everything he has predicted over the last 20 years and was on with Glenn Beck talking about his new book How to Create a Mind: The Secret of Human Thought Revealed which is a non-fiction book about brains, both human and artificial. First published in hardcover on November 13, 2012 by Viking Press^[1] it became a New York Times Best Seller.^[2] It has received attention from The Washington Post, The New York Times and The New Yorker.  Watch Beck talk to Kurzweil below and be sure to watch all the videos on this article for your own education.  What Kurzweil is talking about cannot be stopped, but it can be controlled.  These new technologies require humankind to embrace new philosophies and that is the struggle of our day. 

Kurzweil describes a series of thought experiments which suggest to him that the brain contains a hierarchy of pattern recognizers. Based on this he introduces his Pattern Recognition Theory of Mind. He says the neocortex contains 300 million very general pattern recognition circuits and argues that they are responsible for most aspects of human thought. He also suggests that the brain is a “recursive probabilistic fractal” whose line of code is represented within the 30-100 million bytes of compressed code in the genome.

 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/How_to_Create_a_Mind

Ray Kurzweil has made many predictions about the direction of society over the span of several books and has been a controversial character.  He has however been right more often than not, and when he was wrong it has usually been a variation of his predictions that emerged.  To begin to understand, below is a list of Kurzweil’s predictions made in his book, The Singularity is Near from 2005.  It will become clear quickly the nature of his 2010 predictions because we are going through them right now.  Many of those innovations have not yet become mainstream, but do in fact exists, such as computers being embedded in everyday objects, full immersion of audio-visual reality, and that kind of thing:

The Singularity is Near (2005)

2010

• Supercomputers will have the same raw computing power as human brains, though the software to emulate human thinking on those computers does not yet exist. (IBM Sequoia)
• Computers will start to disappear as distinct physical objects, meaning many will have nontraditional shapes or will be embedded in clothing and everyday objects.
• Full-immersion audio-visual virtual reality will exist.

2010s

• The decade in which “Bridge Two”, the revolution in Genetics/Biotechnology, is to reach its peak. During the 2020s, humans will have the means of changing their genes; not just “designer babies” will be feasible, but designer baby boomers through the rejuvenation of all of one’s body’s tissues and organs by transforming one’s skin cells into youthful versions of every other cell type. People will be able to “reprogram” their own biochemistry away from disease and aging, radically extending life expectancy.
• Computers become smaller and increasingly integrated into everyday life.
• More and more computer devices will be used as miniature web servers, and more will have their resources pooled for computation.
• High-quality broadband Internet access will become available almost everywhere.
• Eyeglasses that beam images onto the users’ retinas to produce virtual reality will be developed. They will also come with speakers or headphone attachments that will complete the experience with sounds. These eyeglasses will become a new medium for advertising as advertising will be wirelessly transmitted to them as one walks by various business establishments. This was fictionalized in Dennō Coil.
• The VR glasses will also have built-in computers featuring “virtual assistant” programs that can help the user with various daily tasks.
• Virtual assistants would be capable of multiple functions. One useful function would be real-time language translation in which words spoken in a foreign language would be translated into text that would appear as subtitles to a user wearing the glasses.
• Cell phones will be built into clothing and will be able to project sounds directly into the ears of their users.
• Advertisements will utilize a new technology whereby two ultrasonic beams can be targeted to intersect at a specific point, delivering a localized sound message that only a single person can hear.

2015

• By now, it is likely that “clean a house” will be within the capabilities of a household robot.

2018

• 10¹³ bits (=10 TB) of computer memory—roughly the equivalent of the memory space in a single human brain—will cost $1000.

2020s

• The decade in which “Bridge Three”, the revolution in Nanotechnology, is to begin: allowing humans to vastly overcome the inherent limitations of biology, as no matter how much humanity fine-tunes their biology, they will never be as capable otherwise. This decade also marks the revolution in Robotics (Strong AI), as an AI is expected to pass the Turing test by the last year of the decade (2029), meaning it can pass for a human being (though the first A.I. is likely to be the equivalent of an average, educated human). What follows then will be an era of consolidation in which nonbiological intelligence will undergo exponential growth (Runaway AI), eventually leading to the extraordinary expansion contemplated by the Singularity, in which human intelligence is multiplied by billions by the mid-2040s.
• Early in this decade, humanity will have the requisite hardware to emulate human intelligence within a $1000 personal computer, followed shortly by effective software models of human intelligence toward the middle of the decade: this will be enabled through the continuing exponential growth of brain-scanning technology, which is doubling in bandwidth, temporal and spatial resolution every year, and will be greatly amplified with nanotechnology, allowing us to have a detailed understanding of all the regions of the human brain and to aid in developing human-level machine intelligence by the end of this decade.
• Computers less than 100 nm in size will be possible.
• As one of their first practical applications, nanomachines are used for medical purposes.
• Highly advanced medical nanobots will perform detailed brainscans on live patients.
• Accurate computer simulations of the entire human brain will exist due to these hyperaccurate brainscans, and the workings of the brain will be understood.
• Nanobots capable of entering the bloodstream to “feed” cells and extract waste will exist (though not necessarily be in wide use) by the end of this decade. They will make the normal mode of human food consumption obsolete.
• By the late 2020s, nanotech-based manufacturing will be in widespread use, radically altering the economy as all sorts of products can suddenly be produced for a fraction of their traditional-manufacture costs. The true cost of any product is now the amount it takes to download the design schematics.
• By the later part of this decade, virtual reality will be so high-quality that it will be indistinguishable from real reality.
• The threat posed by genetically engineered pathogens permanently dissipates by the end of this decade as medical nanobots—infinitely more durable, intelligent and capable than any microorganism—become sufficiently advanced.
• The many variations of “Human Body 2.0” (as Kurzweil calls it) are incrementally accumulated into this and the following decade, with each organ and body system having its own course of refinement and development. It ultimately consists of a nanotechnological system of nourishment and circulation, obsolescing many internal organs, brain-extension and an improved skeleton.

2023

• 10¹⁶ calculations per second—roughly the equivalent of one human brain—will cost $1,000.

2025

• The most likely year for the debut of advanced nanotechnology.
• Some military UAVs and land vehicles will be 100% computer-controlled.

2030s

• Mind uploading becomes successful and perfected by the end of this decade as humans become software-based: living out on the Web, projecting bodies whenever they want or need (whether in virtual or real reality), and living indefinitely so long as they maintain their “mind file”. Eventually, all human beings (including those with transbiological 2.0 or 3.0 bodies) will migrate to this postbiological state except for those who wish to remain unenhanced: the transbiological era giving way to the postbiological era.
• Nanomachines could be directly inserted into the brain and could interact with brain cells to totally control incoming and outgoing signals. As a result, truly full-immersion virtual reality could be generated without the need for any external equipment. Afferent nerve pathways could be blocked, totally canceling out the “real” world and leaving the user with only the desired virtual experience.
• Brain nanobots could also elicit emotional responses from users.
• Using brain nanobots, recorded or real-time brain transmissions of a person’s daily life known as “experience beamers” will be available for other people to remotely experience. This is very similar to how the characters in Being John Malkovich were able to enter the mind of Malkovich and see the world through his eyes.
• Recreational uses aside, nanomachines in peoples’ brains will allow them to greatly expand their cognitive, memory and sensory capabilities, to directly interface with computers, and to “telepathically” communicate with other, similarly augmented humans via wireless networks.
• The same nanotechnology should also allow people to alter the neural connections within their brains, changing the underlying basis for the person’s intelligence, memories and personality.
• The many variations of “Human Body 3.0” are gradually implemented during this and the following decade; It mostly likely lacks a fixed, corporeal form and can alter its shape and external appearance at will via foglet-like nanotechnology.

2040s

• People spend most of their time in full-immersion virtual reality (Kurzweil has cited The Matrix as a good example of what the advanced virtual worlds will be like, without the dystopian twist).
• Foglets are in use.
• Nonbiological intelligence will be billions of times more capable than biological intelligence.

2045: The Singularity

• $1000 buys a computer a billion times more intelligent than every human combined. This means that average and even low-end computers are vastly smarter than even highly intelligent, unenhanced humans.
• The technological singularity occurs as artificial intelligences surpass human beings as the smartest and most capable life forms on the Earth. Technological development is taken over by the machines, who can think, act and communicate so quickly that normal humans cannot even comprehend what is going on. The machines enter into a “runaway reaction” of self-improvement cycles, with each new generation of A.I.s appearing faster and faster. From this point onwards, technological advancement is explosive, under the control of the machines, and thus cannot be accurately predicted (hence the term “Singularity”).
• The Singularity is an extremely disruptive, world-altering event that forever changes the course of human history. The extermination of humanity by violent machines is unlikely (though not impossible) because sharp distinctions between man and machine will no longer exist thanks to the existence of cybernetically enhanced humans and uploaded humans.

Post-2045: “Waking up” the Universe

• The physical bottom limit to how small computer transistors (or other equivalent, albeit more effective components, such as memristors integrated into Crossbar latches) can be shrunk is reached. From this moment onwards, computers can only be made more powerful if they are made larger in size.
• Because of this, A.I.s convert more and more of the Earth’s matter into engineered, computational substrate capable of supporting more A.I.s. until the whole Earth is one, gigantic computer, except for a few nature reserves set aside on the planetary surface for those humans who decided to remain in their natural state. “MOSH’s” (Mostly Original Substrate Human) who choose to remain purely organic would still possess virtual assistants that will act as their transcendent servants, living in the blurred real world (“foglet-reality”) and being provided with environments and everything they could possibly need as they live out the rest of their normal lives unless they enhance themselves.
• At this point, the only possible way to increase the intelligence of the machines any farther is to begin converting all of the matter and energy in the universe into similar massive computers. A.I.s radiate outward from Earth, first into the Solar System and then out into interstellar space, then galaxies in all directions, utilizing starships that are Von Neumann probes with nanobot crews, breaking down whole planets, stars, moons, and meteoroids and reassembling them into computers. This, in effect, “wakes up” the universe as all the inanimate “dumb” matter (rocks, dust, gases, etc.) is converted into structured matter capable of supporting life (albeit synthetic life).
• Kurzweil predicts that machines might have the ability to make planet-sized computers by 2099, which underscores how enormously technology will advance after the Singularity.
• The process of “waking up” the universe could be completed well before the end of the 22nd century, provided humans are not limited by the speed of light.
• With the entire universe made into a giant, highly efficient supercomputer, AI and human hybrids (so integrated that, in truth it is a new category of “life”) would have both supreme intelligence and physical control over the universe. Humanity will still not possess infinite levels of any attributes, as the accelerating change of evolution never reaches an infinite measure (though it moves rapidly in that direction), becoming, as Kurzweil writes, “moving inexorably toward this monotheistic conception of God, though never reaching this ideal”; even with theories such as the holographic universe. The final chapter however notes that, if possible, the ability to create and colonize other universes (and if there is a way to do this, humanity’s vast intelligence is likely to harness it, as with surpassing/bypassing the speed of light) could allow the intelligence of the human/machine civilization to extend indefinitely, akin to a mathematical singularity. If not, then saturating humanity’s own universe will remain their ultimate fate.

Some indeterminate points within a few decades from now

• Space technology becomes advanced enough to provide the Earth permanent protection from the threat of asteroid impacts.
• The antitechnology Luddite movement will grow increasingly vocal and possibly resort to violence as these people become enraged over the emergence of new technologies that threaten traditional attitudes regarding the nature of human life (radical life extension, genetic engineering, cybernetics) and the supremacy of mankind (artificial intelligence). Though the Luddites might, at best, succeed in delaying the Singularity, the march of technology is irresistible and they will inevitably fail in keeping the world frozen at a fixed level of development.
• The emergence of distributed energy grids and full-immersion virtual reality will, when combined with high bandwidth Internet, enable the ultimate in telecommuting. This, in turn, will make cities obsolete since workers will no longer need to be located near their workplaces. The decentralization of the population will make societies less vulnerable to terrorist and military attacks.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictions_made_by_Ray_Kurzweil

 

 When these things happen, it will be excessively important that humankind have a grip on those realities.  In many ways, this is why I write so much about Star Wars, because it offers a mythology that will help religion, political science, science, economics and philosophy deal with these massive changes so that human beings remain in control.  The authoritarian regimes around the world that wish to remain so will find themselves destroyed internally by their grip on traditional methods, such as North Korea, Russia, China and the entire Middle East.  It is impossible for them to maintain control over the masses while individuals all over the world have access to so much information in the palm of their hands.  The same is true of socialism and the desire to spread the wealth across the planet with redistribution.  Such thoughts ignore the nature of productivity and will always fail.  So in regard to these issues, I support a one world government so long as that government is driven by America and no place else.  I am happy to recognize China as a state of America, or Russia, or the countries of Europe, but I am not happy to lose American independence, and economic power to the diatribes of socialism.  I am happy to compete with other countries through capitalism, but not world socialism—primarily because socialism does not prepare the world for the changes coming as predicted by Ray Kurzweil.

 

Only America is poised to help the rest of the world deal with these changes, so it should be America, and the American Constitution that drives the world instead of the other way around.  We are not talking about an American Constitution that wishes to return the world to 1776 and the conditions of human existence from that time, but the philosophic push to maintain individual freedom over governments so that each and every person on planet earth will have the discipline to behold such power within the realm of their control.  Because if such control falls into the hands of authoritarian regimes by suppressing the flow of information on a world-wide scale, then humankind will regress backwards forever instead of embracing the kind of things that are coming to us within the next decade. 

This is the state of our world today and the fight we are all involved with. It is the pinnacle moment in human history—and we are living it—now. Add some more stars to the American flag to represent other countries if everyone wants, but to disband America in favor of global socialism simply isn’t an option. 

Rich Hoffman

 www.OVERMANWARRIOR.com